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In the last four days Avi Arad, the producer for the Spider-Man, has lashed out at the media, written an open letter to BusinessWeek (or more accurately released the letter), published another commentary about how he was the man in the Marvel Universe, stated that Spider-Man would need to be the Central Character in a Avengers crossover movie and out right has dissed everyone else.
All of this at a time when he should be promoting his latest movie The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
What's going on?
Is Avi attempting to divert attention from the lack luster performance of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 at the box office?
Back in December Columbia Pictures President Doug Belgrad announced plans for several Spider-Man spin off movies, including Venom and the Sinister Six.
“The Spider-Man film franchise is one of our studio’s greatest assets. We are thrilled with the creative team we have assembled to delve more deeply into the world that Marc, Avi and Matt have begun to explore in The Amazing Spider-Man and The Amazing Spider-Man 2. We believe that Marc, Alex, and Drew have uniquely exciting visions for how to expand the Spider-Man universe in each of these upcoming films.”
A few moments later an executive from Sony Pictures added:
Alex Kurtzman, Roberto Orci, Jeff Pinkner, Ed Solomon, and Drew Goddard will collaborate on overseeing the “developing story over several films” “[They] have formed a franchise brain trust to expand the universe for the brand and to develop a continuous tone and thread throughout the films,” in conjunction with producers Avi Arad and Matt Tolmach and director Marc Webb (The Amazing Spider-Man, The Amazing Spider-Man 2).
Kurtzman & Orci & Solomon will write Venom, with Kurtzman directing, while Goddard will write and possibly direct Sinister Six.
Back in December I wondered what was up with the new blood.
Ed Solomon is an experienced Hollywood writer; Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure, Men in Black, Super Mario Brothers. Not that his writing is Shakespeare by any means but Bill & Ted and Men in Black were both successful films.
Jeff Pinkner is another somewhat successful writer who was brought in towards the end of development of TASM 2, replacing James Vanderbilt (checking my sources on that).
Shortly before the announcement Sony Pictures had announced a shake up of their upper management with a goal of improving the quality of the pictures they release, per new co-president Micael De Luca. This lead me to postulate that those individuals at Sony and possibly Doug Belgrad were disappointed with the first cuts of The Amazing Spider-Man 2.
Looking back today at almost looks that Sony was attempting to jump start the hype machine. Which is surprising considering that the first trailer was released on December 5. Something else is a foot.
It was another quiet statement by Doug Belgrad back in December that caught my attention, lost amongst the chatter of Venom and Sinister Six, I cannot find the exact link at the time but the gist of the comment was Sony would be happy if TASM2 equaled TASM in box office sales. That's back in December, maybe January time frame. Equal ticket sales revenue to me would be disappointment in my opinion, with increased revenue for Imax and 3D premium tickets. That would be an indicator that fewer butts were in the seats.
When I ran my Box Office projections I predicted a terrible open weekend for TASM2 and Box Office Revenue off by 10% over TASM. If you factor in that TASM and Spider-Man 2 both opened on a weekday properly (which I didn't when creating my projection) it's clear TASM2 had the weakest opening (after adjusting for inflation).
While TASM2 was higher than my projection for opening weekend, it was at everyone else's bottom end or even bellow their bottom. Variety suggested that $115 was as strong possibility.
What's worse is the weekday ticket sales are off by almost 24%...
If it continues on this pattern it may only hit $160 Million Domestically. While I still believe that $190 is probably the end point I guess that everyone needs to wonder if $160 which seemed impossible three weeks ago is possible?
There are already early Box Office Estimates for the upcoming weekend (May 9-11) that put The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in second place for the weekend.
For Sony this is a HUGE issue, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is their only Tent Pole film of the summer season. $160 Domestically and $500 internationally only generates about $400 Million for Sony, which $220 to $250 will cover the cost of production of TASM2. That also means that Sony Blu-Ray DVD Release sales are expected to be well below projections.
So with The Amazing Spider-Man in theaters and Avi Arad losing his cool, what the heck is going on.
Option 1) - Sony is looking to expand their Spider-Man world allowing it to create a Tent-Pole film every year.
Option 2) - Sony / Columbia Pictures is looking to minimize or lessen Avi Arad control
Option 3) - Sony is in negotiations or wants to sell back the Spider-Man license to Marvel studios and is looking to enhance its value.
Option 4) - Avi has simply lost control as he becomes less relevant.
and of course Option 5) - All of the Above.
Sony Pictures and its subsidiaries own a lot of interesting movie rights, the problem is many or most aren't really Tent Pole films with built in audiences. Other then the Bond Franchise what do they have; Popeye the Sailor, Smurfs, Hotel Transylvania, 21 Jump Street, and ... Okay you see the problem.
Will focusing on Villains actually work, all eyes are this summer's release of Maleficent with Angelina Jolie in the title role of supreme bad fairy in the Sleeping Beauty fairytale. There are two problems with using this as a comparison, 2014 is extremely devoid of competition for young adult - typically female targeted - movies. It could rack up huge ticket sales because there isn't anything else for people to go see. Second the rumor is the third act of the movie has Maleficent returning to the side of good, you know redemption.
While Avi Arad had great success at Marvel - movies he was directly involved with earned a couple billion dollars at the box office, but how much was he in control of each one, X-Men, Blade, Spider-Man... He has "complete" control of "The Amazing Spider-Man" series and the numbers aren't good for what is being invested into the movie. Could a Michael De Luca, President of Production at Sony Pictures, be trying to bring a fresh perspective to the Spider-Man Universe?
I have long postulated that Sony is attempting to position the IP for sale back to Marvel. A number around $2 Billion (that's with a B) has been mentioned in multiple articles on the topic. To me, even today, the timing doesn't seem right. But lets be honest if TASM2 only grosses $160 million domestically the sale would be too late for Sony and the value of the property would be greatly diminished. How much so, an account friend of mine suggested as much as $500 million (from $2.3 Billion to $1.8 Billion).
It's also possible that Avi Arad, a man from all descriptions is extremely egotistical, self-centered, type A personality, has simply lost it as his works are becoming less relevant to the Marvel Universe. Honestly his work did bring us the modern Marvel Universe to film, yes he did save marvel's but in 1998, but that was 20 years ago, Bratz has bombed in the theater.
An unnamed executive from New Line Cinema has flat out called him a Liar and Cheat. Others have suggested right now he is willing to say anything to save his butt.
The final possibility is that all of the other options are in play. Sony needs a solid Tent Pole film something that can bring in $200 million over budget consistently to help the bottom line, TASM2 isn't working that way at the moment. So how do you improve quality, fresh eyes, bring in Solomon and Pinkner, both with little connection to Avi Arad. Having Spider-Man appear in a crossover film (as well as Oscorp) appear in Avengers will have to help the box office, but Avi against it. Will expanding the universe be worth while, if...
In the end I wouldn't be completely shocked if the franchise was sold to Marvel, but I still think Sony would need something to replace it on the schedule first. I wouldn't be shocked to hear the Avi is going into a more retirement like role and someone else is appointed to take the lead. I wouldn't be shocked to see Avi retain control and TASM3 make $150 million either.
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