Back in the mid 90's I was convinced to create a blog discussing Sci-Fi / Fantasy Movies, talking about how I would review those movies and what I was looking for. I kept that particular blog current, or at least somewhat current, for over a decade. I found out in March 2014, that my blog provider was shutting down for various reasons, leading me to work to start a new blog. I probably will be moving relevant material over sporadically, especially when I quote it. So don't be shocked to see material from as much as 15 years before the launch of this edition of a geeks view. It, unfortunately, is a lot of work and not just a simple cut past to move the stuff over.
Zero - No one wants to contend with the big kid on the block
Timing on the Calendar
No effect based on comparable films using same weekend
Audience Fatigue
-5%, as much as it pains me to say this with several bad films recently the audience is in that worried stage. While this effect will have little impact on opening weekend I am guessing overall we could see the film peter out faster.
Early Hype
No Effect
Late Hype
Movie is sitting at 98% on Rottentomatoes.com with 50 reviews.
Currently professional Box Office Tracking numbers have this film gaining momentum as release approaches. A few weeks ago the tracking numbers were mid $150 M USD and it grew to $182 M USD and as of this morning $200 M USD and the author of the report suggests it might be $250.
My approach suggests two tracks, on the "low" end the track comes in in the mid $180 M USD, there is some rounding discussions but we will just say $185 M USD for the purposes of this discussion. The high end of the track comes in at $220 M USD.
I have not heard a chorus of reviewers suggesting that film must be seen in Imax 3D or even 3D, which is a little unusual. It could be that people are just assuming that is standard now OR the film is more thought provoking and the effects are in essence secondary. Either way I don't think as many people are going to see this film in 3D as some other films recently. I think that is the Achilles heel for this projection.
Opening Weekend $197 M USD
Domestic Total $518 M USD
International $877 M USD
Total $1.395 B USD
Images have popped up online of Nathan Fillion (Firefly, Castle) appearing on "Movie Posters" from the set of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in Atlanta Georgia.
Simon Williams in the Marvel Universe is the secret identity of Wonder Man, an alien living on earth as an actor who grudgingly is called back into service by the Avengers.
Close up of the Images show none other than Nathan Fillion.
I have had a special request to review the trailer to the forthcoming Warcraft Movie from Legendary Pictures. I played World of Warcraft fairly seriously from pre-release in November 2004 through August 2005 when I started backing off the game. I kept my account active for years but rarely played post August 2006. I have a working familiarity with the game but cannot remember all the details. I have a brother who has the ability to recite the details of every non-consequential NPC in the game.
The first trailer for Warcraft went live just over 5 months ago, so there has been some wait for a second trailer. I find that in itself interesting. Typically for trailers you want to have between 12 and 18 weeks between the release of trailers. Legendary (Universal) has gone 23 weeks, by waiting so long the interest in the film has waned dramatically, one polling organization suggests it dropped from a high of 15th to 77th. That's a drastic drop. If you move back in time to week 18 the movie is roughly 50th. So there is no momentum for this movie at the current time.
In watching the trailer as a whole two key things came to mind. First is who is the audience for this trailer and second it is not a well made trailer.
In a typical cycle of trailers the first trailer provides an introduction to the primary characters and story for the general public. The second trailer builds from the first trailer but usually is a bit more focused on the fan base who knows more about the film. A third trailer is supposed to get everyone excited to go spend money.
The first Warcraft trailer was an above average trailer in the fact it introduced the wide audience to the background of the movie and the primary characters. The second trailer is supposed to build off that, it failed miserably. Remember that 23 week gap, well that is part of the problem. The other problem is that after going back and rewatching the first trailer and the second trailer back to back as someone who doesn't read any WoW sites even monthly any more you are left wondering if these two trailers are for the same movie.
I am left to assume that this trailer was directly aimed at those players with an above passing understanding of the storylines in the game, which isn't me. I just started zoning out.
The second problem from the trailer is it simply is not a well put together trailer. It is hard to actually say this and that and maybe this are the reasons it doesn't work, but rather I'll just go with the fact the trailer lacks flow and continuity coupled with the electronica music in the background make the trailer to disjointed to follow.
As a potential paying customer to whom the film is being marketed to, I have no clue what the film is about, who the film is about, and why I should fork over $16.50 to go see it. And that's the problem, this trailer has not changed the tracking numbers on the film, it is still in the $35 M USD opening Range and $75 M USD total domestic range. For a film with $100 budget that is not a good sign for a film that has 8 million regular players.
As an analyst you start to wonder with such bad tracking numbers if Universal is considering delaying the film and reworking parts of the film.
As Marvel digs a little deeper into their collection of Intellectual Properties as they studio they need to spend more time introducing the characters to the wider audience. The general public has a notion who Ironman is, who Captain America is, who Thor is, but the deeper characters in their Universe is a different story. The same held true for Guardians of the Galaxy. This first trailer is all about introducing us to the main character, Doctor Steven Strange, his accident, and search for meaning after it.
The trailer also gives us a glimpse Tilda Swinton as the Ancient One without providing to much detail.
Doctor Strange is not a character I actively follow in the Marvel Comic Book universe, I know who he is and his place in the Universe but I am not much of follower. I know that several of my friends would have loved to see more detail in the trailer, more of the information on the story; however I am quick to point out where the world has come to. When Doctor Strange is released in November it has the potential to out earn in the box office Batman v. Superman, the first time the two biggest heroes on the planet are in film together, who would have thunk that ten years ago, five years ago, heck even a month ago? Five years ago this film probably would not have been made.
So my sons watched the Rogue One Trailer and want to add their thoughts.
Ben Mendelsohn is the Imperial Officer in white both boys suggested he is playing Grand Admiral Thrawn, correct uniform and look; except Thawn is Blue and has flaming Red Eyes. I have another thought Captain Ozzik Sturn who was on Kashyyyk and held Princess Leia hostage prior to the Star Wars: A New Hope. I believe that event is still considered cannon and is a strong possibility. It is Captain
Much discussion on the differing Storm Trooper Uniforms. Death Troopers anyone? Many different Trooper are shown in the trailer. Including Kashyyyk Scout Troopers. What is interesting is the idea of inserting a new type of trooper into the Star Wars Universe prior to the Star Wars: A New Hope.
The tropical planet looks like Kashyyyk, home of the Wookies. See comments above.
This suddenly can tie moments of the cannon backstory together.
Cloak and Dagger has the pilot green lighted by Freeform (formerly ABC Family). The show has long been rumored and it was kind of surprising it finally got a green light. The target audience is 14-34 and the show will have romantic overtones between the principal characters who come from vastly different backgrounds. http://comicbook.com/2016/04/07/marvels-cloak-and-dagger-tv-series-greenlit-at-freeform/
Production on the pilot of Marvel's Most Wanted has gotten under way.
I would like to add a few interesting tidbits on the Star Wars: Rogue One teaser trailer.
The focus of the trailer is introducing the new characters that this Star Wars Story centers on. We get a full introduction to Felicity Jones character, including her name Jyn Erso. We learn she is a more rebellious than most. We must assume that this character is the primary protagonist of the film.
I can hear the possibilities already with people suggesting that this could she be Rey's mother?
We have Forrest Whitaker's character narrating the later half of the trailer setting him up as a bad ass rebel. He looks awesome in the few moments that we see him. His voice is not as iconic as a few others
There is a few of a Imperial General played by Ben Mendelsohn dressed in a white Uniform and we assume that he is going to be the ultimate bad guy in the film. It is a different look that stands out in sharp contrast to the other dark figures we have seen from Darth Vader and Emperor Palpatine, Grand Moff Tarkin and so on and so forth.
The lack of iconic characters in the trailer. No Darth Vader, or rather probably not as there is a seen with two Imperial Body Guards and a cloaked figure. The idea of inquisitors and the fact it does not "truly" appear to be Darth Vader, not commanding enough presence, suggests it is something else.
In Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith Mon Mothma was cut from the film to shorten the length of the film. She returns here as one of the leaders of the rebellion. We here questioning Jyn Erso and giving her orders.
Adding too many images really length out these reviews so here are a few more thoughts.
It is nice to see the "classic" rebellion uniforms, a visit to the rebel base on Yavin. I like that the have a more tropical environment setting with a battle with classic AT AT Walkers.
It was a nice mix of new and old. Even on a 31" HD display I could not appreciate the magnitude of the Death Star as the Deflector Dish was moved into place. Can you imagine that scene in Imax?
What I didn't like about the trailer, it was a good trailer but didn't get me as hyped as many trailers have about movies. It was purposeful in introducing us to the new story and the characters in the story but it lacked the that grabbing moment of say the Star Wars: The Force Awakens trailers. Could you imagine the ending of the Trailer with Darth Vader's breathing rather than the musical notes?
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