A Geeky Viewpoint

Comparable Films

$199M USD

Competition

Zero - No one wants to contend with the big kid on the block

Timing on the Calendar 

No effect based on comparable films using same weekend

Audience Fatigue

-5%, as much as it pains me to say this with several bad films recently the audience is in that worried stage. While this effect will have little impact on opening weekend I am guessing overall we could see the film peter out faster.

Early Hype

No Effect

Late Hype

Movie is sitting at 98% on Rottentomatoes.com with 50 reviews.  

Currently professional Box Office Tracking numbers have this film gaining momentum as release approaches.   A few weeks ago the tracking numbers were mid $150 M USD and it grew to $182 M USD and as of this morning $200 M USD and the author of the report suggests it might be $250.

My approach suggests two tracks, on the "low" end the track comes in in the mid $180 M USD, there is some rounding discussions but we will just say $185 M USD for the purposes of this discussion.   The high end of the track comes in at $220 M USD. 

I have not heard a chorus of reviewers suggesting that film must be seen in Imax 3D or even 3D, which is a little unusual.  It could be that people are just assuming that is standard now OR the film is more thought provoking and the effects are in essence secondary.   Either way I don't think as many people are going to see this film in 3D as some other films recently.   I think that is the Achilles heel for this projection.

Opening Weekend $197 M USD
Domestic Total $518 M USD
International $877 M USD
Total $1.395 B USD

Spoilers!

http://uproxx.com/gammasquad/2014/10/avengers-age-of-ultron-iron-man-captain-america-scene/

You have been Warned.

The official title of the third installment of Captain America today: Captain America: Civil War.   Rumor has had this movie known as Fallen Son

Several Sources are indicating that Captain America 3 will be titled Captain America: Fallen Son Captain America: Civil War.

Additional Rumors suggest CA:FS will be an Avengers Movie, number 2.5, with multiple Avengers beyond Iron Man and Captain America, including Iron Patriot, Falcon, Black Widow.

(1) http://www.movieweb.com/captain-america-3-characters-avengers

UPDATE - As this is an evolving story I have updated the post to have as much current and relevant information as possible.

Okay I am going to start this with several caveats, okay one big caveat, when dealing with Marvel Rumors it's important to remember that by the time I click on the publish button the rumor mill has probably changed twice.

It's being reported the Robert Downey Jr and his agents at CAA are in final negotiations for him to join the cast in Captain America 3 and potentially additional movies beyond the third Avengers film his is contractually obligated to do.   And the agreed upon price is $40 million dollars plus points on money beyond the $715 million dollars that CA: The Winter Soldier made in the Theater.   So I am guessing its not a bit part.   Has been confirmed that if everyone signs on the dotted line Tony Stark will have a major role in CA3.

The rumors are strong that Captain America 3 will lay the ground work for Avengers 4(1) (2), which will be the climax to the Marvel Civil War.   Based upon the 2006/7 seven part crossover event written my Mark Millar that pitted Super Hero vs. Super Hero.

Captain America 3 would have Sebastian Stan character (Bucky) assume the mantle of Captain America with Steve Rogers going into hiding (3). Sebastion Stan is signed for three additional movies beyond CA3.  Chris Evans is only signed for one additional, his sixth, movie.

If you remember last week we had rumors of Sony Pictures executives making pilgrimage to pay homage to Marvel Studio executives, with todays information on RDJ and CA3 we may know more about what's happening with those discussions.

It appears that Marvel Pictures has offered to provide financing for the next Spiderman film(s) to Sony Entertainment IF the masked Web-Slinger can appear in the Avengers 4 film (and potential ensemble films beyond).   Marvel gets additional rights on approving Sony's stand alone film story lines and Sony gets to use some of Marvel other characters in their films.  
Sony Pictures is currently betting the farm on The Sinister Six in hopes it doesn't have to partner with Marvel, but several insiders are already suggesting that Sony Entertainment already sees the writing on the wall and getting Spiderman in to the official MCU is a big deal.

For those keeping track there is a rumor swirling right now with little supporting evidence that The Amazing Spiderman 4 would be a part of the MCU Civil War canon. 

UPDATE: If RDJ does indeed join the cast of CA3 it also gives credence to the rumors that Thor (Chris Hemsworth), Captain America (Chris Evans) and The Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson) would be replaced by Doctor Strange, Ant-Man, and members of the Guardians of the Galaxy Characters in Avengers 3.  The question remains does that give validation to the rumor that Avengers 3 will be a two part movie?

UPDATE: Every character so far that is in the works for the Marvel Cinematic Universe is involved in the Civil War Story Arc.   In the comic book Civil War storyline the background is driven by secondary or even tertiary characters which causes a devastating destruction to a small city in Connecticut.   The result is the US Government implements a requirement that all Superheroes register.   Supporting the Government side is Tony Stark and Reed Richards (Mr. Fantastic) who are joined be Ms. Marvel and Black Widow.   Opposing the initiative is Captain America, Bruce Banner (The Hulk), Matt Murdock (Daredevil), Luke Cage, Sam Wilson (The Falcon) and the Black Panther.   Caught in the middle is your friendly Spiderman, Peter Parker.  
It will be interesting to see how, or rather who Marvel aligns the characters in the Civil War storyline.  Not having access to Reed Richards (Mr. Fantastic) is a minor problem moving Stephen Strange (Dr. Strange) into that roll is fairly easy, however you have laid the ground work for the relationship between Black Widow and Captain America (Steve Rogers) it may break the work they have done there.
RUMOR: The destruction caused by the Avengers Defeat of Ultron in Avengers: Age of Ultron is what lays the ground work the US Government Super-hero registration as opposed to c-listers destroying a large portion of NE Connecticut.

RUMOR: Black Widow will have a smaller role in CA3

UPDATE: It is interesting to note that Marvel Studios has THREE films scheduled for release in 2018 as opposed to the standard two films they have been releasing and plan on releasing in past and future years.

SPECULATION: Moved to Here

Random Thoughts:
Hulk Buster Armor anyone?
Why Mockingbird on Marvel Agents of SHIELD, of all the Superheroes why her?
Where will Nova be introduced?  
Totally makes sense to bring the Avengers (Iron Man, Thor, Hawkeye, Black Widow) to Agents of SHIELD.
West Coast Avengers an 8 Part TV Series with Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye) makes total sense if you can make it work with his schedule. 

While the Marvel Civil War can be made with just the addition of Spiderman(4) there are additional rumors that Marvel Entertainment really wants to Secret Wars and AvX which require the X-Men via 20th Century Fox cooperation, being the two studios have an old and ancient hate...


(1) Captain America 3 is scheduled for Release on May 6 2016, with as far as everyone believes is the conclusion of the Infinity Gauntlet story arc in Avengers 3 set for May 2018, so the ground work for Avengers 4 will take place before the release of Avengers 3.

(2) The Avengers: Civil War is a tentative working title that I am using not necessarily the announced film, Marvel Studios may simple call it Marvel's Civil War as it may include characters from all over the spectrum.

(3) This has long been rumored that Sebastian Stan will assume the role of Captain America, and the rumor is based upon contracts between Chris Evans (6 movies) and Sebastian Stan (6 movies).

(4) Spiderman technically isn't required to do the Civil War storyline, however he is a central character in the seven part comic story arc.   I personally would be hard pressed to see Marvel attempt this story line without Peter Parker.


http://variety.com/2014/film/news/robert-downey-jr-to-join-captain-america-3-exclusive-1201312229/

Announced today that the Blu-Ray and DVD of Captain America: The Winter Soldier will be available September 9th, 2014.

EDIT - This may not be the correct date, trying to confirm.

Two years from now there looks to be an epic Super Hero Battle, Captain America and Batman and Superman as the three legendary heroes collide head on, AT THE BOX OFFICE.
  
Both movies as schedule to be released on the same day, and word from both camps is neither is going to blink.

Warner Bros. president of domestic distribution Dan Fellman "no intention of moving 'Batman' off that date"

"Disney will hang on to the May opening slot for Marvel's movies with Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America 3 in 2016"   Bob Iger CEO of Walt Disney.

Clearly on movie needs to move as the competition not only decreases potential ticket sales for each it could major havoc on the individual theaters in sales, including concession sales.  

Who blinks, who moves....   Batman vs Superman almost inevitably.  

Marvel has since 2003 released 8 movies on that weekend with 4 more planned.     They have clearly staked out that weekend and no matter how much Warner Bros. would like to muscle its way in, Batman vs. Superman is currently a light weight in terms of box off sales.  

There is a silver lining for Warner Bros.  April 2016 is pretty devoid of movies and has been proven by Captain America you can be successful at the box office during what has been considered a dead month.  

My first Box Office Estimate of the Year, I am so excited..

Captain America: The Winter Soldier is being released on April 4, this is not a prime date for Superhero Movie.    We have had Iron-Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World since the release of Marvel's Avengers, marking the half-way point of Phase 2 in the Marvel Cinematic Universe plan. 

Iron-Man 2 truly rode the coat tails of The Avengers and Thor had a nice bump, probably not as high as many in Marvel Studios office would have hoped. 

As we are not talking prime date and also not having much competition we are lacking the true comparables that I would like to use.    What we have seen so far this year has underperformed regardless of genre and I think that CA will also underperform.   On top of that I think it will out perform the First Avenger.

Opening Weekend Domestically I am guessing 80 to 95, finishing closer to 90.   There are a few projections of CA toping $100 million, but I think to muck is going against it on opening weekend.    I guess I would be slightly shocked if it finished over 95 and very shocked if its over $100.  

Over its run and it will probably have a good run with lack of competition for the first four weekends, The Winter Soldier should do about 33% more than Thor the Dark World, which had a higher level of competition during its early run.   That would put The Winter Soldier at about $300 probably a touch below that.

Internationally there are some undercurrents in this discussion, with a American Hero more so symbolically Captain America will under perform in many markets, the First Captain America was 53% International and I really see nothing to change that, so if the Winter Soldier pulls in just under $300 domestically I would guess that just over $300 would be a good number.   All toll total number in the range of $625.