A Geeky Viewpoint

Never have I wanted to like a movie as badly as I wanted to like Mortal Engines. Movies like Kingdom of Heaven, Gods and Generals and the recent entry in the Wizarding World Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald comes to mind as movies I wanted to like but left the theater wishing they were better.   Mortal Engines is clearly further down that path. 

The first 25 minutes of the film is awe inspiring, it is as gripping as the opening sequence of Saving Private Ryan.  I was sitting on the edge of my seat wanting more.  Than the movie fell off its tracks slogged along and as a viewer I felt like I was getting gut punched for the next hour and half.

Mortal Engines is an adaptation of the first in a series of Young Adult novels by Philip Reeve of the same name.  Set in a post apocalyptic world hundreds of years after a "Sixty Minute War" that decimated the world and inhabitants causing great geologic upheaval and other disasters.  The film focuses on the story of two young antagonists who attempt to expose a conspiracy in the great traction city of London.  Our two antagonists, Hester Shaw and Tom Natsworthy, are portrayed by two relativity unknown actors Hera Hilar and Robert Sheehan.  Other notable cast members include Hugo Weaving as the protagonist Thaddeus Valentine, Jihae as Anna Fang and Stephen Lang as Shrike, the undead warrior.

There will be discussion as to why this film fails, to which there are numerous culpable issues.
Produced and written by Peter Jackson and Fran Walsh with writing assistance from Phillipa Boyens the production company has a pretty spectacular resume, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay Oscars for Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and four other Oscar nominations over the years.  
Directed by Christian Rivers who is making his directorial debut after years of assisting Peter Jackson on almost everyone of his projects for three decades.   Many will question whether he was ready to be the primary voice behind the camera.
To me the biggest problem with this film was the script.  It was bad in every way that the Lord of the Rings was good.  We were given no time to appreciate our two antagonist and it turned a very good character actor, Hugo Weaving, into a boring, one trick, predictable villain.   There were no surprises and everything you expect to happen, happened. 

In the end a promising premise is left crushed in the dust by the massive weight of the bad script and poor direction/acting. 

One Star (only for the the first 25 minutes of the film) out of Five Stars.

Aquaman is a movie that's meant to be old fashion fun, and I understand why a segment of the people who see this movie will feel that way, I am not in that crowd however.   A wisecracking, fish out of water story, starring Jason Momoa in the title role of  Arthur Curry, the Aquaman.   Guided by Princess Mera, portrayed by Amber Heard, Arthur travels to the lost city of Atlantis to begin his journey to find the lost Trident of King Atlan in an attempt to unite the peoples of the seven Kingdoms to stop them from uniting to make war upon the surface.

It sounds like a great comic book story arc, its just not a good movie.  At two hours and twenty three minutes the film is too long for the story they are trying to tell and not long enough for the story they wanted to tell.  At least three times I was so bored and unimmersed in the film that I had to fight off the urge to look at my watch, and I wasn't the only one in the theater suffering from the same compulsion.  When you look around and people are looking at their phones attempt to gauge how much longer they need to watch the film, it is not a good sign.

I enjoyed the interactions between Arthur and Mera, the had good chemistry, but many of the characters were one trick wooden ponies and their acting is difficult to watch.  Willem Defoe as the Grand Vizier,Nuidis Vulko, counselor to King Orm (Patrick Wilson) was almost painful almost as if he was simply reading his lines for the first and only time.   Neither antagonist King Orm, who is Arthur Curry half-brother by his mother Queen Atlanna (Nicole Kidmen) nor Black Manta (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II) are given the opportunity to truly appear as Aquaman "equal" or capable of defeating him.

As my son put walking out of the theater Aquaman is simply a bad retelling of the first Star Wars film, with Arthur Curry talking the place of both Han Solo and Luke Skywalker, Mera talking the place of Princess Leia and Vulko is Obiwan Kanobi.  Throw in King Orm's Elite Guards as Stormtroopers incapable of hitting any target with their blaster and I think it is a right assessment.  Except the story, acting and VX is no where near as good.

The VX looked half completed.  There are some spectacular shots, moving through the City of Atlantis is an example of beautiful work, but there are dozens of other VX shots that look half rendered, unbelievable.   The scenes depicting the violent sea were incredibly bad.   It is the same problem that has plagued many of the DC Extended Universe films.

I enjoyed the score and the soundtrack to the film.  The work of Rupert Gregson-Williams the score is a clear bright spot in the film.   Gregson-Williams also did the score Wonder Woman another DCEU film.   

In the final battle between Aquaman and King Orm, when King Orm was defeated, you could almost hear a pin drop in my theater, except for the one five year old who was clapping, I think everyone was supposed to be clapping or cheering when that happened, but no one was invested enough in the  film for that to actually happen.

I think there is a segment of people who will truly enjoy this film, even suggest that it is the rebirth of the DCEU into a better form, not that would take much after Batman v. Superman or Justice League.  As I said earlier I am not in that crowd.   I would have preferred that they either added the story to make this two films or shaved the story to make this a two hour film, both ideas would have been an improvement.   Even though I enjoyed the chemistry between Jason Momoa and Amber Heard as the protagonists, the poor script, wooden acting and seeming unfinished VX dragged this movie to the bottom.   

Spider-Man is a difficult character to bring to life in any show or film.    The ability of comic book artists, like Steve Ditko, to create a sense of uniqueness and motion on the still pages of the comic books brought Spider-Man to life.  Spider-Man's movements and super abilities do not easily translate from comic book panel to film, regardless of whether it is a Animated TV show or Live Action or somewhere in between.   Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is the first show or film that captures that essence and brings it to life.  The life like animation style of the Film which is clearly neither Live Action or Old School Animation grabs hold of the comic book roots and springs Spider-Man onto the Screen.   In many ways the animation of this film is the perfect medium for Spider-Man.

Last week Sony Picture Entertainment announced two dates for unannounced films in their Marvel Universe of Sony Characters; July 10th 2020 and October 2nd, 2020.   Many movie pundits began speculating on which two films would be slotted in those dates; the most common answer to that question is Morbius the Living Vampire on July 10th and the Venom sequel on October 2nd.  Assuming those two films are the correct films we have the who, the what and when, but not the why.   That is really the question I think the pundits should be focusing on.

Last Month I speculated on the future Sony's Universe of Marvel Characters suggesting that while Sony preferred outcome would be to sell the IP back to Marvel for a billion dollars if not more I figured the most like result of this gamble would be for Sony to take back control of Spider-man pulling the character out of Marvel's Cinematic Universe and going it alone.  By publicly announcing these two release dates it clearly shows that Sony is going all in with it plans for the Sony's Universe of Marvel Characters.

In poker going all in means betting all of your remaining chips (money) on a single hand as a gambit either believing you have the best hand or that your opponent will not match your bet allowing you to win the chips already in the pot.

Sony is all in on this gambit and their are two possibilities.  Possibility One: Sony believes that after years of mismanagement at the top and a series of failed tent pole films they finally have a winning formula and want to capitalize on it.   Possibility Two: Sony wants to force Marvel (Disney) to pay the highest possible price it can achieve to purchase the rights to Spider-Man and the rest of the characters under Sony's Universe of Marvel Characters back.

Taking a step back lets look at Sony Picture Entertainment place in the world at the moment.   Sony is exploring the sale of SPE and rumor has it both Paramount Pictures (Viacom) and Amazon (Prime Video) were potential buyers.   Last week both of those potential suitors announced an agreement with one another giving certain rights streaming rights of Paramount projects to Amazon Prime.  Effectively shutting out either as a potential buyer of SPE. 
Who is left to by SPE?   Comcast/Universal and Warner Bros (AT&T)?  How about STX or Eurocorp or Legendary Pictures (Wanda)?
A little more than a year ago Sony valued SPE at $40 Billion USD.   Analysts have suggested that number is slightly inflated and the real value is about $30 Billion USD.   That is a pretty heft amount regardless of whether we go with the Analysts or Sony's valuation.   In essence it leaves Comcast/Universal, Warner Bros (AT&T), Legendary Pictures (Wanda), and Netflix in the running.  I would suspect that while all four might kick the tires none of them are currently interested in buying SPE in whole from Sony.    Comcast/Universal, Warner Bros. (AT&T) and Netflix are looking to expand their digital streaming services and Legendary Pictures (Wanda) just signed an release agreement with Warner Bros.   So it doesn't make sense to these organizations to purchase SPE in whole.

If Sony Pictures Entertainment cannot be sold as a whole; who is interested in their assets? 

• Quick Pause:   I want to clarify a statement, I don't expect any one to be interested in the totality of SPE at the asking price that either the Analysts or Sony has set.   If Sony were to see SPE for $15 or $20 Billion USD there are several interested parties, but $40 Billion is to high a price.

SPE is made up of the Movie Production Company and the Television Production Company.   On the Movie side of the house they have Columbia Pictures, TriStar Productions, Sony Screen Gems, Sony Classics, Sony Pictures Animation, Imageworks and several other companies.   The TV side is far more convoluted with game shows from Merv Griffin, comedies from Jerry Seinfield, current shows like S.W.A.T. and Good Doctor. 

Starting on TV Side:
Merv Griffen Entertainment.   The Game Shows Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune.     Worth $1 to $1.5 Billion USD.   Buyer - None.   Okay CBS (Viacom) might be interested, but they have to get their house in order first.

Sony TV Animation.   Um err ahhh No One.   Literally they do Hotel Transylvania the Animated Series which airs on Disney XD,

Sony TV:  Here is Sony's problem.   The catalog of older show (Seinfield, Stargate SG-1, The King of Queens, Fantasy Island, and hundreds more) is valued at $25 to $35 Billion (not that anyone would pay that) out of the 19 shows currently in production you might have heard of the Crown or S.W.A.T. but the rest are niche programs.   One analyst suggested the current programming isn't worth what they spend on it and the catalog of older shows is past its prime.
Netflix current formula is for new content doesn't have value for them, however the IP's that SPE owns is a potential gold mine for a stream service like Netflix.   I Dream of Jeannie, Bewitched, Dennis the Menace, Fantasy Island, Code Red, Hardcastle and McCormick and the list goes on and on.   Netflix would be the logical buyer of this catalog and studio but at the $10 to $15 Billion USD range rather that the $25 to $35 Sony wants.

On the Movie Side:
I could spend paragraphs explaining how little SPE's movie side is worth but I will let Sony's on valuation speak for itself.  Above I mentioned that Sony set the value of the totality of SPE at $40 Billion USD, I than laid out that the TV side is valued between $25 and $35 Billion by Sony themselves.    Simple math ($40 B - $25/$35B) suggests that Sony put the value of Movie Studios and their Studios and IPs at a maximum of $15 B and bottom of $5 B USD.   For comparison purposes Disney just payed $71 B for FOX with a similar catalog of TV suggesting Fox Studios was worth ~$35 B.  See the problem?

This is where Sony's all in gambit with Spider-Man comes into play.   Sony's solution has to be either to separate themselves from Marvel Studios entirely or to sell to Marvel.   There is no middle ground in terms of how this gambit plays out.   You cannot go all in and expect to get half your chips back, you either lose everything or double your chips.

Regardless of Sony's desired end-game we know a critical stage is occurring in the near future.   You don't announce the dates if you are not attempting to put pressure on your one opponent, in this case Disney.  That indicates that either discussions on currently ongoing OR will occur in the very near future, as in before the end of the year, concerning Spider-Man IP Rights. 

By putting these dates on the Calendar it is clear that Sony is attempting to Maximize the value of the IP at least on paper  Which indicates that they want Marvel to buy the IP.   If you put the dates out AFTER you come to an agreement than Sony would be looking to retain the IP.  So the question is more about how much does Sony want for the IP?

Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, recently revealed that Disney was interested in getting back the rights to their IPs they don't fully control.   Well this desire goes beyond Marvel, it seemed to be directed at Universal and Sony for the Marvel Characters.

So it seems that we have a set of Dance Partners.

IF Sony wants to sell the Spider-Man IP back to Marvel what do they want? 
For SPE it isn't just about money, not that the money we are talking about is a bad thing, it is also about having IP's that you can continue to monetize and use to support your other projects.   Up through the release of Jumanji last winter Sony has been plagued by under performing IP's.   From roughly 2003 through 2017 most of SPE Franchise IP movie releases have been duds.  It is not that they all bombed, rather a vast majority of the films greatly underperformed at the Box Office.   For every successful film you had three or four that failed to break even at the box office. 
The real problem is Sony has a distinct lack of Franchise IPs under their control.   Sony currently has between 15 and 25 active franchise IPs in their control and another 50 in the fault.   Compare that to Warner Bros who has 30 active franchise IPs and 100's of franchise IP in the fault.   

When Disney completes the purchase of 20th Century Fox assets it will have even more active and inactive Franchise IPs under its control.   Some are pretty well known others not so well known.   But here is one I am going to throw out there: Flash Gordon, currently under Fox's control.

I totally believe that Sony's all in play is to force Marvel to pay a much higher price for the Movie Rights as well as include some other IPs.

I will leave you with one last thought: today SPE announced that the Harbringer IP from Valiant Comics is in full blown active development. 
Something isn't right here. 

I am not a hardcore Potterhead even though I have some tendencies that lean that way. This knowledge gives me a basic understanding of the story and what is going supposedly going on.   That is an unfair advantage over any one who may have only seen a few of the movies in the Harry Potter series.

The Bad

It is the difference between X-Men: Days of Future Past and X-Men: Apocalypse.   In the former Bryan Singer and John Ottman cut the Rouge sub-plot from the film and in the latter the cut the connective tissue.   From an audience stand point the former earned 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and 75 on Metacritic; the later 48% on Rottentomatoes and 52 on Metacritic. 

• There are at least three scenes that we the viewers saw in the trailers and or previews that have been greatly reduced and or eliminated in the final cut of the film.   From my viewing of the trailers I am not talking about scenes that I would have viewed as inconsequential.    The actors have indicated that there are several more scenes that were cut but as an audience we haven't seen them.
• In looking at each of the sub-plots and character story arcs presented through out the film I would say we get the important aspects or the meat of each story, what is not present is the connective arcs of each story.   The audience if left to wonder how each of the sub-plots and story arcs connect with the main story.  Why is this important and why are you showing me?
• J.K. Rowling has incredible creative control over the Fantastic Beasts (and Harry Potter) films.  Through out the Harry Potter books she had detailed stories and connection for even the most trivial characters.  J.K. Rowling commented that are very lines throughout the series that are not connected to something either previously mentioned or to be mentioned in the future.   

Add in Newt's dislike of his brother and other acts that lack human compassion and Newt is a jerk, an very much unlikeable one.  An unlikeable character is hard too emotionally attach yourself to throughout the course of the film.  You have no reason to cheer for them when they succeed or feel bad when they fail.   It is just a character on the screen.

It is possible that J.K. Rowling wants to clearly delineate Newt's growth as a character over the course of the films, starting Newt at stage 0 on the Kholberg Scale of morale development, but at the end of the second movie I would suggest he has regressed rather than grown. 

The Good

The bad in this movie well ultimately be more remembered than the good and drag down its box office.  That is not to say there isn't good aspects tot this film.  In many ways this is an exceptional film from a technical aspect not an artistic one.

Cinematography

Philippe Rousselot, as the Director of Photography, does an exceptional job with this film.   I would contend if the film was better edited this film would have an outside chance of being nominated for an Oscar is Cinematography.    Philippe Rousselot has previously won the Oscar for Cinematrography in 1992 for a River Runs Through It, and has several other nominations for his work in Interview with a Vampire, Henry and June, and Hope and Glory.   While the transitions can be jarring and interrupt the flow of the film, as a whole this film is beautifully shot.   The angles, lighting, and choices of lenses are exceptional.

Special Effects

Having rewatched the entire Harry Potter saga and the Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over the two weeks it was interesting to watch the maturation of the special effects, VX, used throughout the 10 films.   The VX in Crimes of Gindelwald are substeacially better than even Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Film 6, let alone looking back at Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone or Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.   The effects are simply beautiful and believable. 

Score

Another beautifully scored film in the series. 

The Opening Sequence

Direction

Johnny Depp 

Conclusion

Venom's Box Office - Profit

Sony's Leadership Team

Kenichiro Yoshida

Agreement with Marvel Studios

Commentary

Silk?

Over 900 Marvel Characters

What I think Sony should do

What I think Sony will do

Last week I predicted a pretty low opening for Venom, $52 Million open weekend and $135 Million total domestic take.   Simply put I was wrong.

Shortly before Solo: A Star Wars Story opened we heard from multiple sources that Advanced Sale tickets we setting records.  According to Fandango.com:

“Solo” had the second-best first day of presales of the year, behind only “Avengers: Infinity War.” “Infinity War” also doubled the numbers set by “Black Panther,” in addition to outpacing the last seven Marvel movies combined, including massive titles like “Thor: Ragnarok,” “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” and “Captain America: Civil War.” 

So when Atom.com suggested virtually the same story:

The movie’s [Venom] pre-ticket sales are outpacing recent Marvel Cinematic Universe hits such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 , Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp. In fact, Venom sits third behind Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther in terms of Marvel’s pre-sales numbers.

Let's just say I didn't buy it, already been burned by that, not going anywhere near that.

Here's the deal, Solo: A Star Wars Story opened at $84 Million, Venom opened at $80 Million and they supposedly were near neck and neck in terms of presale tickets.

I spoke with a local Movie Account guy (no that's not their real title) about the box office and I think he was as surprised as I was at how well the movie did.   What they are quick to point out though is the Movie did well box office ways in specific markets and not across the board.    In the First Tier of Chicago Suburbs multiple screenings of the movie were sold out, a couple hundred miles west on I-94 saw virtually empty screenings. 

The second take away from our talk is that Venom had either great pre-sales or awful walk-up sales, depending on how you want to spin it.  In terms of pre-sales Venom had very strong ticket sales in the five days leading up to its release.

I'll be interested in watching where Venom tracks.  With a poor critical review and cinemascore as well as poor audience review on several web-site (it has a good score on RottenTomatoes.com) it is expected the movie will have a pretty big fall in Box Office for its second weekend.   Superhero movies that follow that pattern drop between 65 and 69 percent; or $24 to $28 Million. 

My accounting friend has even suggested the film could drop 72% which would put the film just over $22 Million domestically in its second frame. 

"Things that aren't in this movie. There are like 30 to 40 minutes worth of scenes that aren't in this movie... all of them. Mad puppeteering scenes, dark comedy scenes. You know what I mean? They just never made it in."

If Venom plays out like The Amazing Spider-Man in terms of box office it should see a 20% drop from the box office predictions of last week, or $52 million.   And if continues to score in its current range the legs of 2.5 it should have a final domestic take of $135.

While those final numbers are in line with Studio Estimates they are clearly not as high as some prognosticators have suggested.