A Geeky Viewpoint

Edit: I originally posted this a half-hour ago, I never suspected that a single post on such wild speculation would be one of my top viewed posts, in 30 minutes, let alone ever.   I want to be clear this is entirely speculation on my part. 

You know when you think about something an a light bulb goes on and it seems like such a great idea you wonder why someone else has never thought of it.



Negasonic Teenage Warhead

The announcement that Brianna Hildebrand has been cast as a minor mutant named Negasonic Teenage Warhead seems a little off.  
I should note that the original story in the Hollywood Reporter states it source as a twitter feed, however in following the twitter posting it takes you back tot he Hollywood Reporter as it source.   No where in the sources does it confirm that Brianna is playing Negasonic Teenage Warhead.

The character is a telepath trained by Emma Frost in the comics and without pulling every comic out of my collection to check not sure she was involved in to many physical altercations in the comics.

So why is Brianna Hildebrand going to stunt school in Canada?

The synopsis of the film talks about Project X and involves an semi-origin story.   What would a telepath from Genosha have to do with Project X, and why would she have an option for 3 additional films.   She is the type of character that seems to fit into more of the secondary characters of the X-Men proper film than a Deadpool film.

Laura Kinney - X-23

If Negasonic Teenage Warhead as a character doesn't seem to fit properly into Deadpool, what would?   Allow me to introduce you to Laura Kinney, X-23.

This is all pure speculation but I wouldn't be shocked if Negasonic Teenage Warhead is cover for the real role in the film.

Image Courtesy of Bryan Singer

Brianna Hildebrand

Brianna Hildebrand has been cast as the mutant Negasonic Teenage Warhead for the upcoming Deadpool film. 

Negasonic Teenage Warhead, yes it is a mouthful, is a student of Emma Frost in the Comics and is believed she is a telepath.   With the power of premonition, she predicted the slaughter of the mutant population of Genosha and later appears in the Hellfire Club. 

Brianna Heldebrand the actress has been on a regular workout routine and training in stunt work, suggesting that she has been more than a cameo appearance in the film.   From the Deadpool casting sheet it is believed she is playing the part of Kathy.  

WOLVERINE ...ONE LAST TIME. HJ https://t.co/Z8ANwmIS8d
— Hugh Jackman (@RealHughJackman) March 28, 2015

Hugh Jackman on his twitter and Instagram Account on Saturday announced he would play the beloved Wolverine one last time. 

It was later in the day confirmed by James Mangold, director of the upcoming untitled Wolverine Sequel that Hugh Jackman would done the close one last time for the movie.

It has been reported in recent days that Logan/Wolverine would be making Cameos in both X-Men: Apocalypse and Deadpool.   So maybe those don't count.

Patrick Stewart who plays the older Professor Charles Xavier in the X-Men Universe is strongly rumored to appear in the Wolverine Sequel.

Movie Poster Courtesy of impawards.com

Film Poster Courtesy impawards.com

Movie Poster Courtesy of impawards.com

Movie Poster Courtesy impawards.com

It is that time of year!

I rank the Marvel Films from all the different studios, excluding Howard the Duck and ManThing because Howard the Duck was just bad and I have never seen ManThing.   Some day I will find a copy of ManThing and watch it, but not today (or tomorrow or next week.)

While I rank the movies based upon my own personal tastes, that's only part of the criteria I look at to create this list.

Financials, Critics, and Audience views are also taken into consideration and have pretty much the same weight as my own ranking. 

For Financials I look at Open Domestic Box Office, Domestic Total, World Wide Box Office, When did the movie break even domestically, how long was it in the theaters, and a couple of other minor details.  
This Total Bean Counter Stuff.  I added a couple of minor tweaks and only a couple of movies shifted positions, but as I am now done posting for this year I think there a couple of tweaks for next year that need to be added.  Again I believe these are all little things that may shift movies a position or two, but when your sibling is an accountant it is important to get the money right.

As for Critics I look at three of the four major critic overview sites and create an average view of the movie based upon a 100 point scale.  I give you the rottentomatoes.com overview of what the critics said.
It seems kind of odd but many movies shifted a point or two on this rating and one movie dropped by almost 20 percent.  Whether it was technical difficulties or incorporation of more reviews I was shocked at how much work I need to put in on this category.

Audience takes into consideration, how long the film was in the theater, the average score of two of three major online sources (the third does not have all the movies scored), I look at how many reviews are available on these major sites, how many comments, and a break down of what people ranked the movie.
In comparison to last year I overhauled this ranking in its entirety.  I am still not totally happy with it as I try and figure out how to measure passion amongst the fan base, or rather how to incorporate that it into a ranking.  

My rankings is based upon how I feel the movie compares to other Marvel Films.   I watched every film again this year in February and March as try and organize my thoughts.   This year my list was almost exactly what I had last year, I moved two movies up and two movies dropped a couple of slots. 

 

With great power, comes great irresponsibility. #deadpool #officialsuit @deadpoolmovie pic.twitter.com/MPM89bYz1B
— Ryan Reynolds (@VancityReynolds) March 27, 2015

An image tweeted today showing Ryan Reynolds sporting the Deadpool costume, reminiscent of Burt Reynolds many moons ago.   Classic

Free Comic Book Day is Saturday May 2nd, 2015, The day after Avengers: Age of Ultron is released in North America.

The cover has Captain Marvel (Kamala Kahn), Spider-Man (Miles Morales), Nova, Iron Man, Captain America (Sam Wilson), Vision, and the female incarnation of Thor.  

I have not been very high on the reboot or re-envisioning of Fantastic Four set to be released on August 7, 2015. I have expressed my concern about the Fantastic Four (2015) movie in multiple postings on this blog. Yesterday I was asked a question, that I would like to address to a wider audience.  I was asked:

Have your [my] feelings towards a movie ever shifted dramatically from one position to another as the film nears release?

I emphatically answered yes; The Wolverine is clearly an example of a film in which my position went from I am expecting utter garbage to having high hopes of a very good super-hero film prior to the release of the film.
Additionally my hopes for X-Men: Days of Future Past increased the closer we got to its release date.

The follow up question is what is sparking this post:

If your position on at least a couple of movies has changed pretty drastically, why hasn't your position changed on the Fantastic Four [2015]?   

The Original Films by Tim Story

I do not hold the first two Fantastic Four films at the same level of contempt that many comic book / super-hero movie fans do.  That's not saying I think Fantastic Four (2005) and the sequel Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) are award winning, spectacular films, rather they aren't bad
films.

20th Century Fox

I understand what 20th Century Fox was trying to do back in the 2000's with the three Marvel IP's they controlled.   Daredevil and Elektra were supposed to be the darker more hardcore and gritty Superhero films - a hard PG-13 rating that is almost rated R, The X-Men were the middle of the road superhero film with a soft PG-13 rating and the Fantastic Four were supposed to come in a PG films, more of a family film. 
That sounds great on paper at least, but it failed.   Who knew audiences in 2005 were going to suddenly take to dark grittier films like Batman Begins and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.  It also didn't help that many of the jokes were a bit to subtle. 

I would also add the film is being produced under the 20th Century Fox banner.  I realize Tom Rothmann is no longer in charge at 20th Century Fox, he is now the top guy at Sony Picture Entertainment, but that doesn't really change my perceptions of what 20th Century Fox is wants to do.  
Both The Wolverine and X-Men: Days of Future Past are my examples of films in which my position changed are 20th Century Fox releases so I am not suggesting that everything 20th Century Fox does is rubber donkey dung, rather with what they have done with other projects I am not buy the hype as easily.

Mixed messages from 20th Century Fox executives as well as from people involved in the project also have me concerned.   The biggest example is whether or not the Fantastic Four connected to the X-Men universe or not?   No one involved can seem to present a coherent answer. 

Reboots

Fantastic Four (2015) is a reboot and re-envisioning of the story, a mere 10 years and 30 days after the release of the first Fantastic Four film.   If you say are in your early 20's this may seem like a long time, however this usually has a crippling effect on people buy tickets over the age of 25.  
When looking at the demographics of people who buy tickets for superhero movies the largest group is 18-29 white males, followed by 30-44 white males before title break down shifting around the other groups.  Conventional wisdom suggests that 30% of the potential audience will be lost because it is a reboot with 15 years of the original.   I am clearly in the category of 20-44 White Male who has little time for reboots so close to the original.

20th Century Fox has clearly not learned the lessons of reboots from Sony in particular, but Marvel, Warner Brothers, Universal and every other film maker from the past decade.
I cannot find the exact quote but I remember when in 2012 a senior executive at 20th Century Fox stated something along the lines of "By the time the Fantastic Four (2015) is released no one will remember the original."   There is a similar quote from a Sony executive about The Amazing Spider-Man (2012) in comparison to the Spider-Man (2002).
What was one of the largest complaints of the viewing audience about The Amazing Spider-Man, so much time was spent on the origin story when practically everyone had just seen the Spider-Man trilogy on TV/Cable/DVD/Blu Ray.    The Fantastic Four (2005) is on cable three times this week, as well as the fact my local Target has the DVD/Blu Rays front and center on display.  

The next biggest complaint about several reboots, including some soft reboots like Superman Returns is the fact that the movie makers in an effort to create a "new" story have to deviate from the original works.   The Amazing Spider-Man was genetically enhanced by a Spider with Peter's DNA, what huh...   Clearly the Fantastic Four (2015) story is changing the age of the characters, where they get their powers, and the entire backstory of their enemy is just a minor deviation.

Deviation is far worse as far as I am concerned because now Fantastic Four (2015) is a coming of age story opposed to a group of thirty-something characters who in the comics who had to deal with real life issues caused by their powers, like a failing marriage for Ben Grimm.    

The First Trailer

It seems like most younger bloggers got very excited with the first trailer; however for us older bloggers the opposite effect happened, a more ok whatever attitude presented itself.    A quote that really hit me that is referenced several times on the interweb, that for some reason I cannot find the original quote.

"[N]othing" in the trailer to characterize it as being based on the Fantastic Four, feeling it could have easily have been a substitute for similar science-fiction films such as 2014's Intersteller.

The Social Media Effect

One of the things that really has me worried is how little Social Media has been used to promote the upcoming film.  Not just from the film makers and distributors, but from the fans of the Fantastic Four themselves.   Deadpool, a 20th Century Fox Film which is just entering filming, has at least twice the number of hits in the social media world than the Fantastic Four (2015) which has been in development for almost 6 years. 

Deadpool is being made because of the fans desire to see the film expressed almost entirely in the Social Media world. 

Timing

The Fantastic Four (2015) is being released three weeks after Ant-Man, two weeks after Pan, one week after Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation and one week before The Man from UNCLE.   While I understand that August has been usually uncompetitive for movie releases there are two many similar films (similar audience demographics) saturating the market over a one month period.  The amount of dollars that can be spent in attending films is finite.  If Ant-Man is fairly successful ($135 Million going into week four), Pan is over $100 Million (going into week three) and Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation breaks $100 million how much money is left?   Add into that the question on whether the older audience would rather wait for The Man from UNCLE released the following week; you know 30% of the audience that hates reboots within 15 years?

Historically we have an answer, $45 to $60 Million in opening weekends.  In most cases the movie on the tail end of the month is not that successful.   What bothers me about this is I know it, I am just a blogger, now explain to me how executives at 20th Century Fox cannot know that as well.   Why did they leave it there a year ago, six months ago?  

The Wolverine 

In the beginning I stated my opinion of what I was expecting from The Wolverine changed and I became far more positive the closer we got to the release of the film. 
I started out that the film was going to be utter garbage when it was announced, slowly like the tides on a rock I moved to okay it may not be that bad in 2012 as the studio started releasing tidbits of information.   In the end of 2012 we had some official posters and images that seemed to offer the fans some hope.   When the trailer dropped in late March 2013 I was sold.  

Nothing released by 20th Century Fox has gotten me to the point where I can honestly tell you "It may not be that bad."

I'd officially like to welcome our newest mutant #JubilationLee, #Jubilee lanacondor to #XMEN… https://t.co/4oYYtan8Bo
— Bryan Singer (@BryanSinger) March 25, 2015

Jubilee is a mutant who can control small energy explosions, kind of like fire works.

This will not be Jubilee's first appearance in the X-Men Cinematic Universe, as the character has appeared in all three of the original trilogy movies, as little more than a cameo appearance.   It is expected that the same treatment can be expected in X-Men: Apocalypse.

Jubilee has appeared in X-Men, portrayed by Katrina Florence.

From IMP Awards

Fox has ordered a six part limited series for the classic TV Show X-Files.  David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson will reprise their roles as FBI Agents Fox Mulder and Dana Scully in the X-Files.


"I think of it as a 13-year commercial break," said Chris Carter, executive producer/writer. "The good news is the world has only gotten that much stranger, a perfect time to tell these six stories."

Filming is scheduled to begin this summer with no air dates announced.

Over the weekend Marvel's Joe Quesada let slip that getting the casting right for Peter Parker was the most important aspect of the Spider-Man reboot. 

Today several sources are indicating that Mateus Ward has been given multiple auditions for the part of Peter Parker.    The young actor has appeared as a reoccurring character on Disney's Lab Rats, CBS' Hostages and just signed on for TNT's Murder in the First. 

With Captain America: Civil War filming scheduled to begin filming in under a month if the character is scheduled to appear in the film the casting decision could come very soon.

Badass Digest is reporting the Anthony and Joe Russo have signed on the dotted line to direct the Avengers: Infinity War Part 1 and Avengers: Infinity War Part 2 making it official what has been rumored for months.

It is interesting that there have been a number of rumors concerning casting of Peter Parker, Carol Danvers and other parts all weekend.  Are these connected?

Gigi Edgley

A rumor making its was across the interweb over the last couple of days has suggested that Australian born actress Gigi Edgley has either signed on to play Carol Danvers, aka Captain Marvel, or in final negotiations for the part.  

Gigi Edgley is best known for portraying Chiana in the Sci-Fi Adventure TV show Farscape from 1999 to 2003.   Lately she has been the host of SyFy channel's Jim Hensen's Creature Shop Challenge and making the round to numerous America Sci-Fi and Comic shows.  



Chiana

With as many names being floated out there for the part of Carol Danvers it is not surprising that some unusual or out of the box names also get floated by.

The rumors cite several insiders and point to the fact that Gigi Edgley has been extremely active in the past year increasing her American and European name recognition by appearing at nearly two dozen Sci-Fi and Comic over the past 18 months or so.  The number of appearances is highly unusual for a actor/character in her position of being nearly 10 years removed from her role as Chiana.  

On a personal note when I first saw these rumors on March 19th I thought it was sort of suspicious that on the 16th Anniversary of Farscape that an actor from the show would be linked to a major part.  However as I thought about it over the weekend several parts of the rumors seem to ring true.

Marvel Studios has long history of hiring the actor that bests fits the role rather than a known quantity, so choosing Gigi over Katheryn Winnick or Katee Sackhoff isn't out of the question.   Gigi Edgley's roles have given her at least on the public side the look and attitude that I feel could make her a great Carol Danvers 

Joss Whedon on Sunday confirmed in a Marvel Interview that Avengers: Age of Ultron will introduce us to characters we haven't glimpsed yet.   The trailer has given us Moondragon and either Hela or the Enchantress, so does the inclusion of Carol Danvers suddenly make sense?  
As an aside I strongly believe that it is Hela in the Marvel Trailer as Marvel has been increasing her name recognition in the past six months.  

In the end the more I thought about it, the more I grew to like the idea that Gigi Edgley could indeed be Captain Marvel.     Only time will tell if this rumor has any legs.




 
 

In an interview with MTV Jennifer Lawrence stated "It is my last one, actually" when asked about her portrayal of Mystique. 

Is this a negotiating ploy or has she decided to move on from the role?

Jennifer Lawrence is not the only actor to suggest they are done playing a role in Marvel films, Robert Downey Jr and Hugh Jackman both have suggested they were done and back tracked in what several insiders suggest was a winning ploy to get large salary increases.   So it wouldn't be the first time an actor has made such a suggestion.

However neither RDJ or Jackman spend 5 hours in a makeup chair getting ready to film.

Let's do this. pic.twitter.com/pNqcCGReSz
— Morena Baccarin (@missmorenab) March 19, 2015

The picture from yesterday confirms that Morena Baccarin is playing Vanessa in Deadpool.   Vanessa is most assuredly Vanessa Carlysle the mutant known as Copycat, a shape changer who not only assumes another individuals shape but also their DNA and in the case of mutants their powers.

Robert Downey Jr, recently stoped by to visit with Alex, a seven year-old boy born with a degenerative right arm.  Albert Marano, a college student, constructed the low cost arm using 3-D printing and asked for support, in steps Tony Stark.

Bob Iger, CEO of Disney Corporation, announced the release date of the next Star Wars Film, currently known as Episode VIII, for May 26, 2017.

The film will be directed by JJ Abrams who is also directing Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Episode VII.

Guardians of the Galaxy II is scheduled for release on May 5, 2017.  I have a hard time believing Disney Corporation will allow the two similar space based franchise to be released so close together. 

I am putting this out a little early because multiple sites have already placed their predictions.

As many of you know I have a formula that is generally pretty accurate, there occasionally a small hiccup, but with Avengers: Age of Ultron there is a big hiccup to start with.   So this in a way is fun with numbers.

I like to look at five or six comparable movies, with A:AoU I have exactly 1; Marvel's Avengers ($212 M Adjusted).

Competition - None, Zero Zilch Nada.   I have never run this formula without having some sort of competition factor.  Furious 7 opens up April 3rd a full month before and that is the closest thing to competition in the any of the Genres A:AOU has.

Super Hero Weekend Opening - The first week in May has become a traditional opening weekend for Super Hero Movies.  

Audience Fatigue:  It's difficult to gage, a large part of my wants to scream that audiences are getting bored with Super Hero movies, but the numbers don't quite add up that way. 

Early Hype: A:AoU has spent the past year in the top 10 movies on IMDB list, including multiple stints at number 1.   The trailers have a combined 200 Million Views.  Actors have been asked questions a year plus before the release.   Marvel has had several announcements.  I couldn't rate the hype ay higher.

Late Hype: We are a little early for that.  

But there is another category that has to be added for this film, capacity.   I cannot believe I have to actual take this into consideration.

The Avengers: Age of Ultron has the ability to be show on 4600 to 4850 screens in North America (Considered Domestic).   The record is somewhere around 4400 screens, there is little question that AAoU will break that record, the question is how many more screens can be found.  There are only 7600 Screens so 4400 would just under 60% of the total screens.  With so little competition ...
With 4400 Screens over three days you have a maximum revenue of $275 Million; 4850 Screens puts it a shade over $300 M. 

My Formula would suggest that Avengers: Age of Ultron should open at $242 M ($237M/$265M) which would be a 90% Capacity on the screens for three days, that is unheard of. 
It is not simply a solution to add more screens because additional screens will be Standard Definition screens and have a far lower ticket cost... 
At 4600 Screens capacity numbers suggest $212 M
At 4850 Screens capacity numbers suggest $217 M
At 5000 Screens capacity numbers suggest $221 M

Unless there is a mass upgrading of theatres going on I don't know about I have to figure the capacity problems in North America limit A:AoU to between $217 to $221 M on opening weekend.  With a complete domestic run of $775 M and a world wide number $1.93 Billion.

I should note that I predicted $170M for opening weekend of Marvel's The Avengers, which was on the low/average side of predictions of $175 or so.  The Movie opened to $207 shattering expectations.  If I am off by the same amount that puts A:AoU in at $264.5M which is the pretty darn close to the high side of my prediction via the formula.

Latino Review has posted that Drew Goddard will both write and direct the next Spider-Man movie.   The next Spider-Man Movie, Spectacular Spider-Man will also star Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark / Iron-man and will involve Tony interviewing Spider-Man for a role in the Avengers.