A Geeky Viewpoint

I am putting this out a little early because multiple sites have already placed their predictions.

As many of you know I have a formula that is generally pretty accurate, there occasionally a small hiccup, but with Avengers: Age of Ultron there is a big hiccup to start with.   So this in a way is fun with numbers.

I like to look at five or six comparable movies, with A:AoU I have exactly 1; Marvel's Avengers ($212 M Adjusted).

Competition - None, Zero Zilch Nada.   I have never run this formula without having some sort of competition factor.  Furious 7 opens up April 3rd a full month before and that is the closest thing to competition in the any of the Genres A:AOU has.

Super Hero Weekend Opening - The first week in May has become a traditional opening weekend for Super Hero Movies.  

Audience Fatigue:  It's difficult to gage, a large part of my wants to scream that audiences are getting bored with Super Hero movies, but the numbers don't quite add up that way. 

Early Hype: A:AoU has spent the past year in the top 10 movies on IMDB list, including multiple stints at number 1.   The trailers have a combined 200 Million Views.  Actors have been asked questions a year plus before the release.   Marvel has had several announcements.  I couldn't rate the hype ay higher.

Late Hype: We are a little early for that.  

But there is another category that has to be added for this film, capacity.   I cannot believe I have to actual take this into consideration.

The Avengers: Age of Ultron has the ability to be show on 4600 to 4850 screens in North America (Considered Domestic).   The record is somewhere around 4400 screens, there is little question that AAoU will break that record, the question is how many more screens can be found.  There are only 7600 Screens so 4400 would just under 60% of the total screens.  With so little competition ...
With 4400 Screens over three days you have a maximum revenue of $275 Million; 4850 Screens puts it a shade over $300 M. 

My Formula would suggest that Avengers: Age of Ultron should open at $242 M ($237M/$265M) which would be a 90% Capacity on the screens for three days, that is unheard of. 
It is not simply a solution to add more screens because additional screens will be Standard Definition screens and have a far lower ticket cost... 
At 4600 Screens capacity numbers suggest $212 M
At 4850 Screens capacity numbers suggest $217 M
At 5000 Screens capacity numbers suggest $221 M

Unless there is a mass upgrading of theatres going on I don't know about I have to figure the capacity problems in North America limit A:AoU to between $217 to $221 M on opening weekend.  With a complete domestic run of $775 M and a world wide number $1.93 Billion.

I should note that I predicted $170M for opening weekend of Marvel's The Avengers, which was on the low/average side of predictions of $175 or so.  The Movie opened to $207 shattering expectations.  If I am off by the same amount that puts A:AoU in at $264.5M which is the pretty darn close to the high side of my prediction via the formula.