A Geeky Viewpoint

In an interview with SFX Hugh Jackman indicates that the next Wolverine film will most likely be his last as the Iconic Hero

Hugh Jackman as Logan in X-Men 2000

"I don't know yet. We're talking it through. I still am very ambitious for the character. And tonally I feel like we corrected the ship with the last one. But I feel we can still go further, in a way. If I did another one I'm 99.9% sure it would be the last, so that will inform what it is for me."

 Current rumors have James Mangold and Hugh Jackman discussing the "Old Man Logan" story line, set 50 years in the future.  However the problem with the storyline is it greatly involves characters outside of the X-Men Universe (Hulk, Hawkeye, amongst others).     Yet personally I wouldn't be shocked if the third Wolverine Movie was the Death of Wolverine. 

I also believe that if approached Hugh Jackman would reprise his role as Wolverine for an cross-over film in the Avengers.  

Hugh Jackman inviting the world to join in the Premieres of the new X-Men movie.

Cast includes John Boyega, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, Andy Serkis, Domhnall Gleeson, Max von Sydow and the original "Star Wars" movie members, Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher, Mark Hamill, Anthony Daniels, Peter Mayhew and Kenny Baker.

There had been much scuttlebutt that Michael B. Jordan would be the lead, yet John Boyega appears with a similar body and acting style.  

I am not familiar with Daisy Ridley so I cannot comment at the moment.

Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, and Domhnall Gleeson are actors that the audience should know at this point but probably couldn't name.   It will be interesting to see which one of these three becomes the "supporting" actor in a Han Solo to Luke Skywalker kind of way.

The work of Andy Serkis is well documented at this time.

Max von Sydow is an interesting choice, in his Mid 80's one must wonder about his role in the film.

Avi Arad, Producer of The Amazing Spider-Man and The Amazing Spider-Man 2,  in an interview with the Toronto Sun newspaper.

“I think there are some stories that will fit beautifully into a cross, Spider-Man would be incredible mixed up with those other universes. But if we want to do that, the crossovers, it has to be a story that is absolutely centered on Spider-Man. We cannot be second banana to anything out there. Because this is the king. This is the one that influenced young people from birth. I’m not preaching, but Spider-Man, Peter Parker, who is in all of us, is too important to go in and use it as a sidepiece for corporate purposes. The studio may disagree with me, some fans may disagree with me. I don’t care.”

This continues on the issues of Egos that are currently involved in the multiple Marvel Universes.  

Karen Gillan as Nebula
Chris Pratt as Starlord
Chris Pratt as Starlord, I assume he is looking at one of the Infinity Stones.

At this point I cannot find my post where I specifically wrote back in early 2012 (I will find it and I will post it) that I expect Hugh Jackman and Andrew Garfield to reprise their roles of Wolverine and Spider-Man respectfully in the Avengers 3 movie scheduled for 2018.

Back in July 2013 Hugh Jackman was quoted with suggesting Wolverine should be in a Avengers film.

Mate, I ask the same question.  I literally asked the same question the other day to Tom from Marvel who works with all the other studios, he works with Sony and Fox, that’s his job to liaise.  I said, 'Man, can this happen?' and he goes 'Look, it’s not gonna be easy because you’re working with different studios and they’re their properties.'  But I believe—maybe I’m optimistic, I understand at Marvel they’ve got The Avengers, they’ve got a lot of big things going on, but at some point I just find it almost impossible that there’s not a way to bring Iron Man, all the Avengers characters, Wolverine, the X-Men characters, Spider-Man, and somehow get them in together.  

Last year at Comic Con in San Diego Andrew Garfield stated he would love to see Spider-Man in an Avengers Film.   "I’d love to see [Spider-Man] with The Avengers,” Pause for dramatic Effect “Wouldn’t that just be awesome? Just saying.”
This same tone has been heard recently from not only Andrew Garfield, but Marc Webb, Director of the Amazing Spider-Man movies, “I would love that, as a fan, I think that would be great,” he continued with “I don’t know how that would happen, but I certainly would be supportive of it.”

Kevin Feige, President of Marvel Studios, has been constant with his message down playing and making it sound like it is going to be impossible.   "Their are so many stories to tell." "We have our stories."  "They have their stories"

That message change ever so slightly while he was promoting Thor: The Dark World "I would say, not anytime soon would we be in a position to team up with other studios who [have] a few of our characters, because we have so many characters ourselves," he added "I would never say never."

Moving further back, prior to the release of Marvel's Avengers during a Marvel UK panel in April 2012 Kevin Feige stated "Avengers 3 might be a good movie for the Civil War story line"

Lauren Shuler Donner, Producer of the X-Men movies, was quoted in July 2013 as saying “I would love it. I would love it. I personally have close ties to Marvel because of Kevin Feige, because Kevin worked for me. But to take our characters and mingle them in the way that they were written, yeah, absolutely.”

Yesterday Greg Silverman, President, Creative Development and Worldwide Production Warner Bros. Pictures confirmed in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Warner Bros. has plans for a Justice League movie for sometime in 2018.  
The Justice League movie will be set after Batman vs. Superman set for release in May 6, 2016.   With plans to add a new Green Lantern (suspected to be Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson) Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot) as well as Flash and Aqua Man.  
Even this early in the development cycle and less than 48 hours after first breaking the news many DC fans are speaking in terms of worried and low expectations.
Even though I don't expect to hear directly from Marvel Studios on the topic its another shot from Warner Bros. directly at Marvel Studios.   I wouldn't be surprised to hear Marvel Studios announce a release date to plant a flag for this movie.

So with a Justice League movie coming Marvel Studios needs to kick it up a notch to make sure they continue their roll as leading Super-Hero film studio.

It's not so easy when you have so many egos, personalities, and studios involved, but I think we will see a clear catalyst for one hold-out to change their tune in the near future.

The release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 [TASM2 for short] is next weekend, back a few weeks ago posted a box office project which was not so rosy for the Movie.   Currently many of Sony's biggest defenders are suggesting a $95 million domestic opening there are many projections of a much lower total, like mine of $72 million.  I won't get into the weird view points of the "Avengers Bounce" for X-Men: Days of Future Past but not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 the real problem is for Sony and Columbia is decreased revenue, especially the all important opening weekend.   IF The Amazing Spider-Man 2 falls short of Sony's revenue projections (approximately $90) Sony will have to take steps.  
Let's assume that TASM2 does fall short, an $80 million opening and $200 domestic total, that would provide only about $150 million in revenue for Sony compared to approximately $140 in the previous installment, which had a $62 million opening weekend.   Those numbers are not going to pay the bills for Sony.
One rumor that keeps appearing on the inter-web is that Sony sells the rights or transfers them to Marvel Studios, a figure roughly of $2 Billion, that's with a B boys and girls, and points on future Spider-Man films.   To me the problem with this rumor is timing, if we see TASM 2 tank and TASM 3 truly tank I think Sony would be far more apt to move along this path.  One less than great movie in terms of revenue does not make a sinking ship, three on the other hand...
The second option is work at getting an Avenger's Bounce.   In the first Amazing Spider-Man film their are dozens of supposed links to the Marvel's Cinematic Universe.   You can all make your own judgments, none the less TASM did not get a bounce.  To get that bounce you need a better connection, I honestly believe had Oscorp Tower appeared in Marvel's Avengers we would not be having this discussion as it would have clearly setup the connection and the bounce would have occurred.   Who failed in those negotiations, while we don't know who wouldn't blink we know that Sony Failed to get the benefit.
The third and final option would be to allow Andrew Garfield to appear as Spider-Man in Avengers 3.   Trust me a substantial bit of money will be involved $30 to $50 millions and points.

A lot of the focus lately is getting Spider-Man into the MCU, its important to look at 20th Century Fox X-Men series of movies.
X-Men: Days of Future Past is scheduled to open in less than a month, even though it has no ties to the MCU its expected to get a Avenger's Bounce, one that The Wolverine did not get last fall.   Yet in the Thor: The Dark World we see series of potential easter egg connections.   The Maruaders, a band of mutant assassins, appear as a rag-tag band of mercenaries.  While Erik Selvig is giving his talk on the interconnection of the worlds, on the black board dozens of easter eggs appear in the writing, including the fault (Thanos Reference), as well as X-Force reference, Yost and Kyle (last names of the creators of the X-Force). 
Factoring in a more friendly relationship between Lauren Shuler Donner and Kevin Feige, who used to work at Donner along with Avi Arad, add in that multiple people are talking about it and I smell at least strong discussions on bringing Wolverine to the MCU. 

I should point out that 20th Century Fox and Marvel Studios current friendship was not always the case and a contentious court battle occurred in 1999/2000/2001 between the two over a potential TV series called Mutant X.   

So that said, unless TASM 2 blows away box office sales this weekend I suspect that more pressure will be added to bring these two characters to Avengers 3.    It appears to be a situation where everyone could win.  

A short 30 second promotional video showing Hugh Jackman as Wolverine in the forthcoming X-Men: Days of Future Past.

One of the first images of Elizabeth Olsen as the Wanda Maximoff (the Scarlet Witch) on the set of Avengers: Age of Ultron in Venice Italy.

That's Soccer to you and me.

Okay Variety posted an article with predictions for Godzilla with "Stomping towards $60 Million."

Here is the deal, $60 isn't out of the question, but isn't likely.

If you look at the comparable films from the 1998 Godzilla, last years Pacific Rim, other similar title Transformers (2007), Robocop (2014), Prometheus (2012) you see a trend for opening weekends, a low of $21 for the Robocop reboot and a high of $70 for the first Transformer film.    The math here builds a comparable base at just over $42 Million.

Talking about competition is a little weird for this movie.   Two weeks prior is the release of the Amazing Spider-Man 2 and the following week is X-Men: Days of Future Past.    Traditionally the Spider-Man movies are doing about 25% of what the opening in the third weekend with no competition.   That not a good sign usually, however the buzz surrounding The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is not good right now, this is an indicator that the competition may not be what it normally is.  Usually I would hit at -$9 million, but I am thinking that is to harsh, going to say instead a -$3.

The Date is a neutral date, no modifier.

Audience Fatigue is not really an issue here.   There haven't been many successful Giant Monster, robot, android movies recently.   In looking at this there is actually might be a positive for Godzilla.

Early Hype is almost non-existent to low for this film, but the late hype has been building, that a very good sign.

However the math suggests $49.5 Million for an opening weekend.   If I were to put a rang on this I would say $45 to $58.

That said I am predicting early for this because its already getting predictions, however things can change, a strong word of mouth and the like.   Right now the buzz seems to orchestrated and the audience doesn't usual buy it.  

New movie coming out, so the obvious question asked amongst the faithful becomes rank the past movies.  The problem of course with the question is you are asking about personal taste without providing guidance as to the criteria.

I finally got a decent copy of the concept art teased by Kevin Feige showing off the Hulk Buster Iron Man Armor from the Assembling a Universe special on ABC.

From Marvel.wikia.com

According to ComicBookMovie.com Kevin Feige (the Big Guy at Marvel Studios) told Empire Magazine that Thanos has been cast for the Avengers 3.  

While he wouldn't divulge any details about how the character will be brought to life in the movie, Feige did confirm that the role has ben cast! "There is an actor. I'm not sure we want to announce it yet."

When it comes time to build a Box Office Projection "I" am trying to give out three numbers;     Domestic Opening Weekend, Domestic Total, and International Total; which in turn gives us the final Box Office Total.

Domestic Opening Weekend is an important metric for Film Studios (primarily the six major studios), the numbers are used to determine post release marketing strategies, number of screens booked in the next two weekends, and various other little

Domestic and International Totals are important for the secondary studios, the ones that actually make the movies, the actors, directors, and other film making staff as it determines likelihood of future budgeting, budgets for next movies, salaries and so on and so forth.

These three numbers are derived from a series of factors including but not limited too:

• Comparable Films
• Competition
• Timing on the Calendar
• Audience Fatigue
• Early Hype
• Late Hype

Lets look at "The Amazing Spider-Man 2" which will be released next week Domestically.

Comparable Films:

• Spider-Man
• Spider-Man 2
• Spider-Man 3
• The Amazing Spider-Man
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier
• Thor: The Dark World
• The Wolverine
• Iron Man 3

In this case we have a good deal of comparable films, that close fit into our current model.   Sam Raimi Spider-Man Trilogy staring Tobey McGuire, the reboot also staring Andrew Garfield (and most of the cast of this one), and four recently released Super-Hero movies in the past year.

Competition:

• Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Week 5)
• Divergent (Week 3)
• Transcendence (Week 2)
• Belle
• Walk of Shame
• The Protector 2

Here we see a direct competitor in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, two additional Sci-Fi movies still in early general release, a new Action Movie a Romantic Film and a Comedy. 
Transcendence and Divergent have proven they should be extremely minimal factors, and the audience for Belle and Walk of Shame are not the same as Sci-Fi, Super-Hero Action movie.   The Protector 2, which also will be in it first weekend, while a action movie, is a small budget sequel that virtually no one outside of its core audience is aware of.   It will be slightly more of factor in comptetion than say Belle, but not much.   The real problem for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is Captain America: The Winter Soldier, a well received movie that going into The Amazing Spider-Man 2's opening weekend will have spent 4 weeks at number 1.   Clearly without this competition the Amazing Spider-Man 2 would do better, considering you are looking at roughly $10 million in ticket sales for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. 
I wouldn't be surprised if Captain America: The Winter Soldier finished the week in the number 2 position.

Timing on the Calendar

The first weekend in May has historically been a Super-Hero movie release date for the past half-dozen years or so.   This means it usually takes less effort to get your secondary audience in the theater because its time to see a "Super-Hero Movie"   As opposed to releasing movies in April or February.

Audience Fatigue

In the case of The Amazing Spider-Man the secondary audience is fairly fatigued.  There was the Short Turn around on the Spider-Man Reboot, there have been 5 major stand alone - single - Super-Hero movies in the past year, the sales number were way do to the previous Sam Raimi trilogy of Spider-Man Films.  

Early Hype

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 first trailer had 8 million views on YouTube in the week, it had good press on the various media, a strong social media presence.

Late Hype

While the Amazing Spider-Man 2 initial trailer had 29 million total views on YouTube, the second and third official trailer were much weaker.   Social Media presence, including retweets, blog postings are down.   The initial reviews have been lack luster. 

[Raimi's Spider-Man 2 is] among the best superhero films ever made. Marc Webb's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is... not. Come year's end, it'll struggle to even rank among the top three superhero films of 2014.  - Simon Miraudo Film Critic Quickflix

Putting it all together

The comparable films all opened to approximately $103 million thus we have a baseline number.
While not in heavy competition, there is a very direct competitor in Genre (Captain America: The Winter Soldier - 10) and some near competitors (-4).
A traditional Super-Hero movie release weekend (+7.5)
Audience Fatigue appears to be pretty big for this movie (-25%)
Early Hype was all very positive (+10%)
Late Hype is not so good (-15%)
Total $68

So my number that I think would be the goal for $68 Million on opening weekend.   I however expect a final marketing push providing a few extra butts in the seats, so I pushed my number from $68 to $72.

I do a similar process for projecting Domestic Totals, International totals however is  little more hit or miss for me.   I can't see the Hype in Iceland or South Korea, so I rely on guidance from other sources and looking at comparable numbers.
Generally I have been fairly close (within 15% give or take) so its not a bad way to look at those numbers.

I like to point out my numbers usually in the same ballpark as major predictors like Box Office Mojo, variety and other major industry sources.   In the case of Amazing Spider-Man 2 I am within 5% of Box Office Mojo's predictions.  We differ on X-Men: Days of Future Past as they think it will do much better opening weekend than I do.

My Numbers right now for X-Men: Days of Future Past
Comparable - $87
Competition - -$9
Summer Opening - +$10
Audience Fatigue - -5%
Early Hype - +5%
Late Hype - +15%
Total $89.4 Million

Box Office Mojo published it's 2014 Summer Predictions.

Amazing Spider-Man 2

• BOM - $225 Domestic and $480 International - Total $705
• Mine - $180/210 Domestically and $500 International - Total $700

X-Men: Days of Future Past

• BOM - $290 Domestically and $470 Internationally - Total $760
• Mine - $219 Domestically and $366 Internationally - Total $585

Guardians of the Galaxy

• BOM - $180 Domestically and $250 Internationally - Total $430

I have not predicted Guardians of the Galaxy as of the date of this post.

This movie is tough to gage.  The Sam Raimi trio of films were pretty well received and did $114, $85, and $151 million on opening weekend, by comparison "The Amazing Spider-Man" pulled in $62 Million over the Fourth of July weekend in 2012.   Last year's Iron Man 3 pulled in $174 million on opening weekend.  So we have an apples to oranges issues already going on.

Domestically the opening weekend should be in the 65 to 80 million Range, with a guess that low 70s is about right.  

The first "Amazing Spider-Man" opened over the Fourth of July Weekend, as opposed to the first weekend in May which has become a Superhero driven weekend.

The key to me however is looking at the number of trailer views on YouTube.  The initial Trailer has been viewed 29 million times, the subsequent trailers are in the 6 million range.  That's not good, you would expect a movie to build buzz and the later trailers to be in the 50% range at this time, being only at 20% indicates that the anticipation amongst potential audience is not there. 

Unless there is a massive change in people's perceptions of this film in the next two weeks its not looking good for Sony's Marvel Universe.

Overall Domestically I am guessing that $180 to $210 would be a positive position for this film to end in at this time, while Sony would like a lot more, I just don't see it having the legs or the audience appeal, considering its four weeks after Captain America and four weeks before Days of Future Past.

Internationally you could see 70 percent meaning it stays flat internationally in terms of revenue while decreases domestically giving it a mark at $700 which would by far be the worst numbers of the series for Sony.

Domestically the opening weekend should be in the 75 to 95 million Range, with a guess that 89 is about right.  

In the past three years we don't have true comparable, based upon schedule and genre.   Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the market, but it was one of 2 Sci-Fi movies for over a month.
  
With Godzilla opening the weekend before and Amazing Spiderman 2 four weeks prior there is a chance of a little Sci-Fi burnout taking place.  My guess is its Godzilla who takes it in the shorts in terms of attendance.

The last two movies in the series have been low in terms of turnout, and their numbers have been in the mid $50s.   The reviews of both were slightly positive but with a negative undertone.     The trailers for the last two movies underperformed, while X-Men Origins: Wolverine had very well received trailers and was extremely disliked by audiences. 

Domestically I am guessing, based on comparable films that low $200 would be acceptable, the under over about $219.

Internationally the X-Men series has been better received, guessing that 55 to 60% of the receipts will be international markets.  That suggests in the neighborhood of $585 Million.

Edit - April 24
In looking at several other predictions its clear that the other predictions are giving X-Men: Days of Future Past an "Avengers Bump" that I am not giving out.   In my mind the "Avengers Bump" is applied via of the comparable Super-Hero movies in my formula, however for clarity if I use a true "Avengers Bump" the numbers become $130/150 opening, $360 Total Domestic and $1.05 Billion International.   I like many other predictors don't think ticket sales that high are out of the question just not very likely (maybe 25% chance.)    We should know more where the Late Hype meter is in about two weeks.

So I have to admit I am kind of excited by the latest X-Men movie "Days of Future Past" and for the past couple of days have been watching the geek channel, I mean youTube, catching up on what several sites have to say when I clicked on the Michael Fassbender's Magneto featurette found on xmen.norton.com (facebook) website.

You know exclusive footage of the film, in which it provides 60 seconds worth of film of which most 30 to 45 seconds is released in other formats, but after watching the first several and noting the little details on my last featurette, I about lost it, I was so steamed, frelling pissed is more like it.

A Few Lines that matter.
Ellen Page (out of character): "The Sentinels were created by Dr. Trask these incredible Mutant-Machine hybrids."

Professor X: "He [Dr. Trask] is going to capture her. ... And then they are going to wipe us out."
Magento: "Not if we change history tomorrow."

So what have we learned ...

• The Sentinels are using the DNA of mutants, specifically Mystique and Magento's, and being enjoined with machines.   This is different than the robot machines from the comic books were the sentinels are "giant robots". 
• Dr. Trask has created the Sentinels as a slave to humanity to wipe out the higher form of evolution so that homo-sapiens do not become extinct.

The real problem is that they have let the cat out of the bag. 

According to multiple sources Channing Tatum is in talks to play Remy LeBeau, AKA Gambit, in a future X-Men movie.

Taylor Kitsch played the role of Remy LeBeau in X-Men Origins: Wolverine.