A Geeky Viewpoint

This movie is tough to gage.  The Sam Raimi trio of films were pretty well received and did $114, $85, and $151 million on opening weekend, by comparison "The Amazing Spider-Man" pulled in $62 Million over the Fourth of July weekend in 2012.   Last year's Iron Man 3 pulled in $174 million on opening weekend.  So we have an apples to oranges issues already going on.

Domestically the opening weekend should be in the 65 to 80 million Range, with a guess that low 70s is about right.  

The first "Amazing Spider-Man" opened over the Fourth of July Weekend, as opposed to the first weekend in May which has become a Superhero driven weekend.

The key to me however is looking at the number of trailer views on YouTube.  The initial Trailer has been viewed 29 million times, the subsequent trailers are in the 6 million range.  That's not good, you would expect a movie to build buzz and the later trailers to be in the 50% range at this time, being only at 20% indicates that the anticipation amongst potential audience is not there. 

Unless there is a massive change in people's perceptions of this film in the next two weeks its not looking good for Sony's Marvel Universe.

Overall Domestically I am guessing that $180 to $210 would be a positive position for this film to end in at this time, while Sony would like a lot more, I just don't see it having the legs or the audience appeal, considering its four weeks after Captain America and four weeks before Days of Future Past.

Internationally you could see 70 percent meaning it stays flat internationally in terms of revenue while decreases domestically giving it a mark at $700 which would by far be the worst numbers of the series for Sony.