A Geeky Viewpoint

Okay Variety posted an article with predictions for Godzilla with "Stomping towards $60 Million."

Here is the deal, $60 isn't out of the question, but isn't likely.

If you look at the comparable films from the 1998 Godzilla, last years Pacific Rim, other similar title Transformers (2007), Robocop (2014), Prometheus (2012) you see a trend for opening weekends, a low of $21 for the Robocop reboot and a high of $70 for the first Transformer film.    The math here builds a comparable base at just over $42 Million.

Talking about competition is a little weird for this movie.   Two weeks prior is the release of the Amazing Spider-Man 2 and the following week is X-Men: Days of Future Past.    Traditionally the Spider-Man movies are doing about 25% of what the opening in the third weekend with no competition.   That not a good sign usually, however the buzz surrounding The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is not good right now, this is an indicator that the competition may not be what it normally is.  Usually I would hit at -$9 million, but I am thinking that is to harsh, going to say instead a -$3.

The Date is a neutral date, no modifier.

Audience Fatigue is not really an issue here.   There haven't been many successful Giant Monster, robot, android movies recently.   In looking at this there is actually might be a positive for Godzilla.

Early Hype is almost non-existent to low for this film, but the late hype has been building, that a very good sign.

However the math suggests $49.5 Million for an opening weekend.   If I were to put a rang on this I would say $45 to $58.

That said I am predicting early for this because its already getting predictions, however things can change, a strong word of mouth and the like.   Right now the buzz seems to orchestrated and the audience doesn't usual buy it.