A Geeky Viewpoint

My first Box Office Estimate of the Year, I am so excited..

Captain America: The Winter Soldier is being released on April 4, this is not a prime date for Superhero Movie.    We have had Iron-Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World since the release of Marvel's Avengers, marking the half-way point of Phase 2 in the Marvel Cinematic Universe plan. 

Iron-Man 2 truly rode the coat tails of The Avengers and Thor had a nice bump, probably not as high as many in Marvel Studios office would have hoped. 

As we are not talking prime date and also not having much competition we are lacking the true comparables that I would like to use.    What we have seen so far this year has underperformed regardless of genre and I think that CA will also underperform.   On top of that I think it will out perform the First Avenger.

Opening Weekend Domestically I am guessing 80 to 95, finishing closer to 90.   There are a few projections of CA toping $100 million, but I think to muck is going against it on opening weekend.    I guess I would be slightly shocked if it finished over 95 and very shocked if its over $100.  

Over its run and it will probably have a good run with lack of competition for the first four weekends, The Winter Soldier should do about 33% more than Thor the Dark World, which had a higher level of competition during its early run.   That would put The Winter Soldier at about $300 probably a touch below that.

Internationally there are some undercurrents in this discussion, with a American Hero more so symbolically Captain America will under perform in many markets, the First Captain America was 53% International and I really see nothing to change that, so if the Winter Soldier pulls in just under $300 domestically I would guess that just over $300 would be a good number.   All toll total number in the range of $625.