A Geeky Viewpoint

Okay, so I (and everyone else for that matter) missed the boat when it came to predicting the Box office for Deadpool over the past weekend.    I predicated Deadpool would take in $67 M for the three day weekend and my predictions were in line with most other predictions.   A few Hollywood insiders, specifically those who work for the rival studios, suggested that Deadpool may bring in $80 to $85 M over the three weekend.

 

How did I and everyone else blow this prediction, and by blow I mean miss it by 100%?

 

Starting at the beginning, even though discussions on a Deadpool film go back nearly a decade it was until recently the project moved forward.  Jim Gianopulos as Chairmen and CEO of 20th Century Fox Pictures green lit the project with a modest $58 M USD budget during the summer of 2014.   All previous released X-Men films were green lighted by the former Co-Chairmen of 20th Century Fox Pictures Tom Rothman, Jim Gianopulos replaced Tom Rothman on January 1, 2013.   Tom Rothman was noted for his hands on approach to film making and his dislike of Superhero Movies.   Under Tom Rothman's leadership of 20th Century Fox would never had made Deadpool, it was too risky and had too many characteristics that Rothman identified as failings of the Superhero Genre.  Fox domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson spoke about this  "Deadpool is wildly creative and new, and that’s what audiences want, I think a lot of credit goes to Jim Gianopulos for having the courage to make this movie."

 

That modest budget of $58 M USD, well when Tim Miller and Ryan Reynolds were pitching the film in late spring and early summer they were asking for $65 M USD.   20th Century Fox made the two heroes of our story an offer they couldn't refuse, figure out how to make the movie for $7 M USD less than what they figured was the absolute floor.   Less than 24 hours later our cast of misfits agreed, including Tim Miller, Ryan Reynolds, and the two principal writers Rheet Reese and Paul Wernick, amongst others, I assume Lauren Shuler Donner and Simon Kinberg were also involved.   I am not sure what was cut from the film, but I am guessing it involved a couple of CGI scenes.

 

20th Century Fox took a huge risk with an R-Rated superhero film.   The previous attempts were generally unsuccessful.  The Blade Trilogy, another Marvel property released by New Line Cinema, achieved decent success in the late 1990s and early 2000s.   However films like the Punisher, 300: Rise of an Empire, Watchmen and Kick-Ass all basically flopped.   The general line of thinking has been to make money you need to be PG-13, R-Rating kills the potential for success.   Even a successful film like Mad Max: Fury Road failed to turn a profit in its domestic release.

 

Ultra Violent films over the past decade have not been successful, either domestically and more importantly internationally.   While the US has sexual taboos most countries have violence taboos that limit films success.

 

So here is 20th Century Fox Pictures green lighting a Ultra Violent, Rated R Superhero movie where the hero isn't a hero and he talks to the audience.  Add to that the movie is scheduled for release in the cold of winter on a weekend that is usually reserved for dates at the theater, the lead actor while incredibly personable and likable has never been a leading man in a financially successful film and you are not going to have many other notable names in the film either.    For those that follow the industry it seems improbable at best.

 

Not only does 20th Century Fox green-light a movie they allow the principal actor, Ryan Reynolds, almost free reign to promote this movie on social media, and then decide it working so well lets take it further.  

 

With the success of the film its hard to imagine that it was even suggested doing a straight Superhero film, but that was what most in Hollywood thought they should do.   The leadership for the project did something else, they listened to the Fans and gave them exactly what they wanted.   They didn't try and create a new story or change the origin of the character or alter the character, just a simple Deadpool story.   The fans have Tim Miller to thank for this.   You know that released Deadpool test footage, created by Blur Studios, which happens to be lead by Tim Miller, provide that the fans wanted a crazy loco Deadpool, when it was "leaked" online. 

 

So 20th Century Fox made a crazy, ultra violent, sarcastically, R-Rated film, that the fans wanted, that still doesn't explain how the film earned $135 M USD domestically on its opening weekend.

 

There are other factors.  

Weak Competition for the opening weekend.   This is an important factor, almost as important as not having a true romantic comedy (or romantic film) on the slate.    How to be Single is more of a comedy with a female lead than a romantic comedy and it really opened the doors to the suggestion of taking in Deadpool on a date.   In addition the other new release Zoolander 2 scored very low on rottentomatoes.com and the closest thing to a hold over in the genre is the 9th weekend of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Valentine's Day fell of Sunday.   Had Valentine's Day fell on Saturday, before the very strong word of mouth broke for Deadpool, then the Female Comedy How to be Single probably gets a big bump and Deadpool drops.  

 

It should not be overlooked that Deadpool is a good movie.   It received an A rating from Cinemascore, an 85% favorable rating on Rottentomatoes.com and decent score of 65 on Metacritic.   It is not Shakespeare by any stretch of the imagination but it does have a solid score/soundtrack, a pretty good cinematography, and the editing isn't bad either.   I could also mention the acting and directing, and a script that was a very much a change of pace from the aspect of the story being told.

 

So you have a perfect storm, a film fans want to see, weak completion, a solid reviews and great word of mouth.  

Competition - 0

Calendar - $10 Million

Movie Fatigue - 0*

Hype - 15%

Prediction $67 M

 

There are many in Hollywood that are predicting this movie may make a run at the largest February movie opening - Fifty Shades of Grey which $85 M last year.   Several Hollywood insiders suggest the film is tracking at $81 M.    I don't want to get to caught up in these big numbers because the film would have to upwards deviate from its track by 22% which is hard to see.

 

We should be able to tell where Deadpool is tracking by Friday morning with the Thursday previews.   I'm expecting the Thursday previews to run in the $12.5 M range, a deviation in either direction of $2.5 should tell us where the movie will ended up.  

 

Here is my take, first this is one of the first Imax films for 20th Century Fox, with ticket prices roughly double that of standard films.   The fanbois are all in for the extra $8 a ticket, but how many non-fanbois are willing to spend that kind of money?   It doesn't have a real 3-D version, so there is no in-between.

Looking at past results and making an guesstimate we can derive a number of between $10 and $17 M in Imax, for my estimate I am going with $14M.   As an aside Imax records $30 Star Wars: The Force Awakens, $20 Jurassic World, $18 Avengers: Age of Ultron.    

 

The second option for the audience is a standard 2d film.  This is where the prediction gets difficult.   Without a 3d option for the audience your left looking at the film making $53 M in that category.    If the film had a 3d option this number would be roughly $67 M and $81 would make total sense. 

 

What about your past predictions of Deadpool in the $35 M range?  

Good Question, I am glad I asked.   My last public prediction for Deadpool was in April of 2015, almost a year ago.   About a month ago I upped my prediction from $35 to $55 M internally and today as we close in on the opening I upped it again to $67

Rated R comic book (or similar) movies generally open in the $17.5 to $35 M range depending on the quality of the film.  There was little reason to believe that Deadpool would deviate from that norm prior to updates about a month ago.  Since then it has earned a solid 80 plus score on rottentomatoes.com, 64 on Metacritic.com and hey marks from early showings  all of those are substantial higher than the other rated r movies I used in tracking. 

There hasn't been very little bad or negative hype about this movie.   That is pretty unusual considering the source material, its rating and studio.