Endgame - Box Office Report

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Holy Cow!    $350 Million Domestic, $859  International for $1.2 Billion, with a B, World Wide. 

I had predicted that Avengers: Endgame would break the opening weekend domestic and end up just short of $300 Million at $297 Million.   I laid out my reasoning on Friday but to provide a quick review.

  • NFL Draft and Game of Thrones 
  • Nearly Sold out Premium Seating
  • Second Part to a Movie
The NFL Draft and Game of Thrones were virtually none factors.  

And Marvel (and Disney) sold the audience on the conclusion, no-spoilers campaign to heighten the anticipation of the audience. 

One of my points is that Premium seating in IMax and other Premium Format (Ultra Vision, Recliners, 3D) were sold out.   To get large numbers you need the audience to show for standard 2D showings.   Guess what, not only did the audience show up in droves, 67 percent of the total box office, $234 Million, came from standard  2D screenings.   

Premium Formats and IMax account for 33 percent or $116 came from those screenings.   For perspective at 100% capacity IMax and Premium Formats could only generate about $140 Million, if you eliminate the handicapped seating that sets the maximum amount about $128 Million.    That means those formats generated 85% to 90% of their maximum revenue.   To be far AMC, Regal and other national theater chains offered round the clock showings on their premium screenings.  Raising the maximum potential to $135 (subtracting handicapped seating) and total of $150.  

Last year when Avengers Infinity War set the previous Opening Weekend Box Office of $257 M it earned $107 Million in the premium formats and IMax, and $150 in Standard Format screenings, thats 42% and 58%.   Well premium formats and IMax grew by 8 Million, standard formats grew by $85 Million, more than a 50% increase.    Some estimates claim that upwards of 12 million more tickets sold, its at least 10 million more tickets.

And the the next few days should continue to be record setting for few days (weeks) as premium showings are virtually sold out during the prime late afternoon and early evening hours.    The highest non-holiday Monday is last years Avengers; Infinity War with $24 M, which is the 10th largest Monday, Black Panther leads the way at $40 M.    I would not find it surprising to see Monday Box Office in the $30 to $35 Million range and $100 M-Th.  

Endgame Box Office Prediction Part II

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Thursday Previews (6pm through 1230am showings) earned an estimated $60 million breaking the record held by The Force Awakens.
AMC, Marcus, Regal and other national movie theater chains have doubled their planned screenings over the weekend. AMC alone will have 58,000 screenings this weekend. From a Box Office perspective the added screenings are all in the most inexpensive category, standard 2D. At the local AMC these are 5.19 tickets. This is potentially a big win for families and others who rarely attend movies as well as the chains who will see vast increases in concession sales, the overall box office well not so much.
If this plays out like other similar movies that puts the movie on $302 Million pace.

Endgame Box Office Prediction

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Movie Math
Highest grossing movie per theater on opening weekend (adjusted for inflation and a minimum 1,000 theaters) - $67,000 - Return of the Jedi in only 1002 theaters.
Second Highest - $60.000 - The Force Awakens - 4100 theaters.
Third - $57,000 - Infinity War - 4500 Theaters.
Most Screenings over opening weekend - 202,025 - Infinity War (45 showings per theater)
Second Highest - 198,000 - Force Awakens - 48 Showings per Theater
Average Ticket Price - $9.11
Total Screens - US 41,313
Total Theaters - US 5,282
Average Number of Screens per Theater - 7.8
Endgame
4500 Theaters
229,000 showings scheduled as of 4-25
5 Screens per Theater
51 Showings per Theater
Average Theater Capacity 300
Average Ticket Price (adjusting 2d/3d) $8.66
At 50% of Capacity
150 * 8.66 x 51 * 4500 = 298 Million
($66,249 per theater Average)
At 66% of Capacity
200 * 8.66 * 51 * 4500 - 447 Million
(88,332 per theater Average)
Average Saga Trilogy Concluding Movie increase vs. previous movie...
18 to 35% (Dark Knight and Return of the King 18%, Revenge of the Sith, Return of the Jedi, Harry Potter, X-Men, Marvel Films 30 to 35%)
Bounds for Endgame
$298 to $303 Million Floor
$346 to $397 Million Ceiling
Rotten Tomatoes - 96% (Virtual Tie with Black Panther)
Metacritic 78 (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Internation Audience Score 93% (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Black Panther - Forecast $185 Actual $202
The Avengers - F $172 A $207
The Force Awakens - F $231 A $247
Projections
Disney - $250
Industry - $301
Breaking Return of the Jedi's adjusted for Inflation Gross per Theater Average would be a substantial record for any film for a number of reasons. Shattering the record by 25% is not a reasonable expectation. Only two movies in the past twenty years have even come close.
Does the NFL Draft or Game of Thrones rain on the Parade?
My Prediction
Of the premium screenings (excluding 12 AM to 6 AM starts) For Fri-Sun 66% are virtually sold out. This leaves only the lower price tickets for standard 2d showings. We have already seen average ticket price for Endgame drop to $8.66 from the National Average of $9.11. This means to see substantial growth in the Gross you have to sell more tickets, between 2.5 to 3 tickets for every premium tickets. The question becomes if you don't see it in premium do you want wait to see it in premium. Even though most reviewers say that 2d standard is great value, it makes it hard for people to choose.
Because of this, the NFL Draft and Game of Thrones I think the film falls just short at $297 Million.
IF the overnight premium showings (currently sitting at 20 to 25% capacity) start filling up all bets are off.

Dark Phoenix

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The Mandalorian - Teaser Trailer

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Normally I would not post a link to a pirated version of a trailer, nine times out of ten I don't even watch them.  But I feel this is different.   It's not different because it is still a pirated copy of the teaser shown to the Disney Fan Fest in Chicago, but it is different because it is good at doing what it had to do.   Excite the fans, and attempt to bring them together.


Star Wars; The Rise of Skywalker

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Honest Trailers - Mortal Engines

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Avengers: End Game - Sneak Peak

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