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Movie Math
Highest grossing movie per theater on opening weekend (adjusted for inflation and a minimum 1,000 theaters) - $67,000 - Return of the Jedi in only 1002 theaters.
Second Highest - $60.000 - The Force Awakens - 4100 theaters.
Third - $57,000 - Infinity War - 4500 Theaters.
Second Highest - $60.000 - The Force Awakens - 4100 theaters.
Third - $57,000 - Infinity War - 4500 Theaters.
Most Screenings over opening weekend - 202,025 - Infinity War (45 showings per theater)
Second Highest - 198,000 - Force Awakens - 48 Showings per Theater
Second Highest - 198,000 - Force Awakens - 48 Showings per Theater
Average Ticket Price - $9.11
Total Screens - US 41,313
Total Theaters - US 5,282
Average Number of Screens per Theater - 7.8
Total Theaters - US 5,282
Average Number of Screens per Theater - 7.8
Endgame
4500 Theaters
229,000 showings scheduled as of 4-25
5 Screens per Theater
51 Showings per Theater
Average Theater Capacity 300
Average Ticket Price (adjusting 2d/3d) $8.66
4500 Theaters
229,000 showings scheduled as of 4-25
5 Screens per Theater
51 Showings per Theater
Average Theater Capacity 300
Average Ticket Price (adjusting 2d/3d) $8.66
At 50% of Capacity
150 * 8.66 x 51 * 4500 = 298 Million
($66,249 per theater Average)
150 * 8.66 x 51 * 4500 = 298 Million
($66,249 per theater Average)
At 66% of Capacity
200 * 8.66 * 51 * 4500 - 447 Million
(88,332 per theater Average)
200 * 8.66 * 51 * 4500 - 447 Million
(88,332 per theater Average)
Average Saga Trilogy Concluding Movie increase vs. previous movie...
18 to 35% (Dark Knight and Return of the King 18%, Revenge of the Sith, Return of the Jedi, Harry Potter, X-Men, Marvel Films 30 to 35%)
18 to 35% (Dark Knight and Return of the King 18%, Revenge of the Sith, Return of the Jedi, Harry Potter, X-Men, Marvel Films 30 to 35%)
Bounds for Endgame
$298 to $303 Million Floor
$346 to $397 Million Ceiling
$298 to $303 Million Floor
$346 to $397 Million Ceiling
Rotten Tomatoes - 96% (Virtual Tie with Black Panther)
Metacritic 78 (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Internation Audience Score 93% (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Metacritic 78 (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Internation Audience Score 93% (Highest Marvel Film Score)
Black Panther - Forecast $185 Actual $202
The Avengers - F $172 A $207
The Force Awakens - F $231 A $247
The Avengers - F $172 A $207
The Force Awakens - F $231 A $247
Projections
Disney - $250
Industry - $301
Disney - $250
Industry - $301
Breaking Return of the Jedi's adjusted for Inflation Gross per Theater Average would be a substantial record for any film for a number of reasons. Shattering the record by 25% is not a reasonable expectation. Only two movies in the past twenty years have even come close.
Does the NFL Draft or Game of Thrones rain on the Parade?
My Prediction
Of the premium screenings (excluding 12 AM to 6 AM starts) For Fri-Sun 66% are virtually sold out. This leaves only the lower price tickets for standard 2d showings. We have already seen average ticket price for Endgame drop to $8.66 from the National Average of $9.11. This means to see substantial growth in the Gross you have to sell more tickets, between 2.5 to 3 tickets for every premium tickets. The question becomes if you don't see it in premium do you want wait to see it in premium. Even though most reviewers say that 2d standard is great value, it makes it hard for people to choose.
Because of this, the NFL Draft and Game of Thrones I think the film falls just short at $297 Million.
Of the premium screenings (excluding 12 AM to 6 AM starts) For Fri-Sun 66% are virtually sold out. This leaves only the lower price tickets for standard 2d showings. We have already seen average ticket price for Endgame drop to $8.66 from the National Average of $9.11. This means to see substantial growth in the Gross you have to sell more tickets, between 2.5 to 3 tickets for every premium tickets. The question becomes if you don't see it in premium do you want wait to see it in premium. Even though most reviewers say that 2d standard is great value, it makes it hard for people to choose.
Because of this, the NFL Draft and Game of Thrones I think the film falls just short at $297 Million.
IF the overnight premium showings (currently sitting at 20 to 25% capacity) start filling up all bets are off.
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