A Geeky Viewpoint

A few weeks ago I wrote that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey was one of the most difficult films to forecast in years. Since then, trailers have been released, long-range tracking has tightened, and new pieces of the puzzle have emerged.

Instead of making the outlook clearer, they've made it more intriguing.

Early in the year, industry optimism suggested The Odyssey could open near $200 million domestically with an outside chance of reaching $1.5 billion worldwide.

Today, long-range tracking has settled into a much more conservative range of $80–100 million for its domestic opening weekend.

That doesn't mean the film is in trouble.

It does mean expectations have changed.

The Better Comparison

Many analysts continue to compare The Odyssey to Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer.

I think the better comparison is Ridley Scott's Gladiator.

Like Gladiator, The Odyssey is a large-scale historical epic relying on spectacle, storytelling, and audience enthusiasm rather than an established franchise. Adjusted for inflation, Gladiator's box office would approach $1.3 billion worldwide today—a benchmark The Odyssey is clearly capable of reaching.

Christopher Nolan has earned the benefit of the doubt. His recent track record includes Dunkirk and Oppenheimer, and his name alone makes this one of the year's most anticipated films.

But unlike Oppenheimer, this is a three-hour mythological epic asking audiences to embrace one of the oldest stories ever written.

That makes forecasting considerably more difficult.

Why I See Two Outcomes

I've been asked several times where I think The Odyssey will finish.

My answer hasn't really changed.

I think this film either performs near the top of expectations or near the bottom.

If everything comes together, I could see:

• $125 million domestic opening

• Approximately $275 million worldwide opening

• Around $400 million domestic

• Roughly $1.2 billion worldwide

If audience enthusiasm is more limited, I could just as easily see:

• $75–85 million domestic opening

• Approximately $225 million worldwide opening

• $300–350 million domestic

• $800–900 million worldwide

To be clear, $800 million worldwide is an enormous success for almost any movie.

However, with a reported production budget around $250 million and a global marketing campaign likely exceeding $100 million, the margin for error is much smaller than many people realize.

Word of Mouth Will Decide Everything

Unlike many modern blockbusters, I don't believe opening weekend will determine The Odyssey's fate.

Its legs will.

If audiences leave theaters saying:

"You have to see this on the biggest screen possible."

the film could enjoy the kind of sustained run that made Gladiator, Titanic, and The Lord of the Rings cultural phenomena.

If audiences instead say:

"It looked incredible, but it never really connected with me."

then the film could experience a steep second-weekend decline, making a billion-dollar worldwide finish much harder to achieve.

For this movie, word of mouth isn't just important.

It is the entire game.

The Trailer Conversation

One thing that has surprised me is how much discussion has centered on the trailers rather than the filmmaking itself.

Critics have questioned:

• Modern-looking armor and costumes.

• Actor accents.

• Historical authenticity.

• Whether Nolan's interpretation truly captures Homer's work.

That conversation should sound familiar.

Ridley Scott's Napoleon generated many of the same debates before release. While the two films are very different, it demonstrates how quickly enthusiasm for historical epics can shift when the conversation becomes focused on authenticity instead of storytelling.

The trailers won't determine the movie's success.

But they have undoubtedly shaped the discussion.

The Influencer Question

One development that continues to intrigue me is Universal's decision to cancel influencer screenings.

Many people have argued this simply reflects Christopher Nolan's longstanding dislike of influencer culture.

That may well be true.

However, I keep coming back to the business side of the equation.

This is a film carrying one of the largest budgets of Nolan's career. By most estimates, it needs somewhere between $600 million and $750 million worldwide simply to become profitable.

When the financial stakes are that high, every positive piece of marketing has value.

Influencers alone won't make or break a billion-dollar movie, but they can reinforce momentum, encourage fence-sitters, and help create the feeling that a film is a genuine cultural event.

Viewed in isolation, canceling those screenings isn't particularly meaningful.

Viewed alongside softer tracking, mixed trailer reactions, exceptionally strong IMAX demand but less enthusiasm for standard-format presales, and a shortened theatrical runway, it becomes another interesting data point.

The Spider-Man Problem

Unlike Gladiator, The Odyssey won't have a month to dominate theaters.

Only two weeks after its release comes Spider-Man: Brand New Day.

That means The Odyssey has very little time to establish itself as the movie people simply have to see.

If audiences embrace it immediately, the two films can coexist.

If they don't, losing premium screens and casual moviegoers that quickly could dramatically affect its long-term box office.

The Next Indicators to Watch

Over the next few weeks, I'll be watching four things very closely.

Review embargo timing.

Studios don't choose review embargo dates at random. If reviews are allowed to publish well before opening weekend, it suggests Universal is confident enough to let critical praise become part of its marketing campaign. If reviews are held until Wednesday or Thursday before release, it doesn't automatically mean the film is in trouble, but it does become another data point worth noting.

Standard-format presales.

We already know IMAX demand is extraordinary. The unanswered question is whether that enthusiasm extends beyond Nolan's core audience into traditional multiplex screenings.

The first audience reactions.

The real test begins when paying audiences walk out of the theater. If they're telling friends, "You have to see this," then the box office ceiling rises dramatically.

The second weekend.

This may be the single most important statistic of all. Opening weekend measures anticipation. The second weekend measures audience satisfaction.

Final Thoughts

I'm not predicting failure.

Far from it.

I believe The Odyssey has the potential to become one of the defining films of 2026.

I also believe it's one of the most volatile box office forecasts I've seen in years.

Right now, I don't see a comfortable middle ground.

Either Christopher Nolan has delivered the next great historical epic—one that approaches Gladiator in cultural impact and earns around $1.2 billion worldwide—or the film settles into the $800–900 million range, a remarkable achievement by most standards but one that inevitably raises questions about expectations, marketing strategy, and return on investment.

The next few weeks will tell us a great deal.

The tracking numbers, the review embargo, the presales, and the first audience reactions will each add another piece to the puzzle.

And when opening weekend finally arrives, the number that interests me most won't be Friday night's gross.

It will be what audiences are saying as they walk out of the theater on Saturday.

Holy Cow!    $350 Million Domestic, $859  International for $1.2 Billion, with a B, World Wide. 

I had predicted that Avengers: Endgame would break the opening weekend domestic and end up just short of $300 Million at $297 Million.   I laid out my reasoning on Friday but to provide a quick review.

• NFL Draft and Game of Thrones 
• Nearly Sold out Premium Seating
• Second Part to a Movie

Thursday Previews (6pm through 1230am showings) earned an estimated $60 million breaking the record held by The Force Awakens.
AMC, Marcus, Regal and other national movie theater chains have doubled their planned screenings over the weekend. AMC alone will have 58,000 screenings this weekend. From a Box Office perspective the added screenings are all in the most inexpensive category, standard 2D. At the local AMC these are 5.19 tickets. This is potentially a big win for families and others who rarely attend movies as well as the chains who will see vast increases in concession sales, the overall box office well not so much.
If this plays out like other similar movies that puts the movie on $302 Million pace.

Last week I predicted a pretty low opening for Venom, $52 Million open weekend and $135 Million total domestic take.   Simply put I was wrong.

Shortly before Solo: A Star Wars Story opened we heard from multiple sources that Advanced Sale tickets we setting records.  According to Fandango.com:

“Solo” had the second-best first day of presales of the year, behind only “Avengers: Infinity War.” “Infinity War” also doubled the numbers set by “Black Panther,” in addition to outpacing the last seven Marvel movies combined, including massive titles like “Thor: Ragnarok,” “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” and “Captain America: Civil War.” 

So when Atom.com suggested virtually the same story:

The movie’s [Venom] pre-ticket sales are outpacing recent Marvel Cinematic Universe hits such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 , Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp. In fact, Venom sits third behind Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther in terms of Marvel’s pre-sales numbers.

Let's just say I didn't buy it, already been burned by that, not going anywhere near that.

Here's the deal, Solo: A Star Wars Story opened at $84 Million, Venom opened at $80 Million and they supposedly were near neck and neck in terms of presale tickets.

I spoke with a local Movie Account guy (no that's not their real title) about the box office and I think he was as surprised as I was at how well the movie did.   What they are quick to point out though is the Movie did well box office ways in specific markets and not across the board.    In the First Tier of Chicago Suburbs multiple screenings of the movie were sold out, a couple hundred miles west on I-94 saw virtually empty screenings. 

The second take away from our talk is that Venom had either great pre-sales or awful walk-up sales, depending on how you want to spin it.  In terms of pre-sales Venom had very strong ticket sales in the five days leading up to its release.

I'll be interested in watching where Venom tracks.  With a poor critical review and cinemascore as well as poor audience review on several web-site (it has a good score on RottenTomatoes.com) it is expected the movie will have a pretty big fall in Box Office for its second weekend.   Superhero movies that follow that pattern drop between 65 and 69 percent; or $24 to $28 Million. 

My accounting friend has even suggested the film could drop 72% which would put the film just over $22 Million domestically in its second frame. 

If Venom plays out like The Amazing Spider-Man in terms of box office it should see a 20% drop from the box office predictions of last week, or $52 million.   And if continues to score in its current range the legs of 2.5 it should have a final domestic take of $135.

While those final numbers are in line with Studio Estimates they are clearly not as high as some prognosticators have suggested.

Movie Poster Courtesy impawards.com

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opens in theaters on Thursday evening a predictions of the movies box are all over the board, and the Internet as well.

On the low end, including LucasFilms/Buena Vista/Disney executives are suggesting $125/$135 M Domestic and $300 M Worldwide.   The opposite end of the scale, the high end, many predictors have the movie earning in the range of $165/$170 M and $300 M Worldwide.

To put that in perspective $130 M domestic opening would rank as the 22nd largest in history and $170 M would be the 13th largest.  $130 M foreign opening would rank as the 36 largest while $170 M would rank as the 20th largest.

It is interesting that the predictors who are suggesting a better domestic opening are also suggesting a poorer foreign opening and vice versa.

Large, excited fan base? Check!
no competition at the box office? Check!
Star Power? Check!
Massive marketing campaign that has been carefully constructed not to revel too many details.  Check!
Previous Movie set records at the box office?  Check!
Solid Score on Rottentomatoes.com Metcritic, and every other site? Check!


So why is this movie not going to open better?
Like many prequels Rouge One: A Star Wars Story is stuck in an unenviable position of being stuck in the prequel trap.  The hard core fans know the story well enough to repeat it back to you verbatim, well the regular fans only know the movie is about Star Wars and if they are lucky the plan to steal the Death Star Plans prior to Star Wars; A New Hope.  Now you have to write a script to satisfy both groups.   Very rarely is that done.

Pre-Hypeulation, it just made that term up, but it is an adept description of the problem.   Two weeks ago the hype meter was pegged for this movie.   It was the talk of virtually every Internet sci-fi/fantasy show, the actors were making the rounds on TV, both foreign and domestic.   The hype for other sci-fi/fantasy movies was at a lull.   In the past week we have had trailers for War for the Planet of the Apes, Spider-man: Homecoming, and a few others.   Suddenly instead of being number 1 by a mile, they are number 3 or 4 as the movie opens.

Over all the reviews are good, upper 70's on rottentomatoes.com, 67 on Meta Critic, other aggregate sites are posting similar numbers, but those aren't game changing numbers.   Scores below 50 could scare casual fans away, scores above 85 can draw fans in.   You are in that middle ground where the reviews affect the potential viewership minimally if at all.

The more you know about Star Wars the more you are going to like this film.  We have all heard it from the first viewings, from critics, from fans, from me, and that is going to scare the not so hard core fans.

So where does this film end up after the first weekend?
I think internationally this film is going to do better than expected.    It has the features that international audience crave, when it comes to multicultural cast, solid directing, a good story, and the added bonus of an American funded high budget.     International reviews have been more positive pushing the upper 80's (out of 100) on aggregate sites.    $175 M to $215 M are the ranges if the models hold true and best guess is just under $185.

Domestically this film is not going to have some of the high end numbers some people are expecting.   Even with its build audience its looking more towards the lower end of the scale.   Models in the $125 M to $145 M seem in line with $137 seeming to be a best guess.

Domestic - $137
Foreign - $185
Worldwide - $322

The other day I wrote a small piece on the surprising profits that many studios have announced recently.    I have received a request to clarify a section.

In 2016 we have 8 movies domestically reach $200 M or more in box office receipts.  With 4 potential additional movies that may reach that plateau by years end.   This is clearly in line with the past five years with 12 or 13 movies over the $200 M mark.
The problem is $100 M dollar movies.     Over the past five years we have had an average of 20 movies take in between $100 M and $200 M in domestic box office revenue, this year we have 11.   With the release schedule for the remainder of the year, unless we have several break out hits we will have the fewest number of $100 M or greater movies since 2006.

The domestic box office tracking numbers in Millions of Dollars US for some forthcoming movies:

Title:     Opening Weekend:    Total:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story |  $125-$150 ($135) | $375-$410 ($405)
Moana* | $60M-$80M ($65) | $250-$300 ($285)
Doctor Strange | $88 M | $250-$300 ($275)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them | $70-$90 ($75) | $175-$210 ($205)
Passengers* | $30-$40 ($35) | $125-$200 ($175)
Sing* | $15-$30 ($25) | $95 - $125 ($115)
Trolls | $30 | $65 - $125 ($110)
Arrival | $20-$35 ($25) | $75-$95 ($90)

*Opens prior to the weekend

Some notes on these:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has been holding steady since the first numbers started trickling out during the late summer.   There is an idea that the film has legs and will make an decent 3x its opening weekend.     Many of the top films of the past couple of years are 2.0 to 2.2X multipliers.   However it is not predicted to have a Star Wars like opening.  

Five of the remaining seven movies are trending down, the exceptions are Doctor Strange and Arrival, when looking at their tracking numbers over the past month.  

Moana is tracking below Zootopia and Big Hero Six in terms of online hits, hashtags and so forth one month before its release, yet it trending above both in terms of its tracking numbers.

The tracking numbers for Trolls are very divergent in terms of their range.   Many associate this to a question about how a toy from the 80's will work for children of the 2010's?



 

In a series of surprising announcements this week several major studios announced a profit for the most recent quarter.   When you couple this with quarterly or seasonal box office revenue down in two of the three most recent quarters/seasons and the over domestic and international movie revenues being down for the year those statements make little sense without taking a deeper dive into them.

In 2016 we have 8 movies domestically reach $200 M or more in box office receipts.  With 4 potential additional movies that may reach that plateau by years end.   This is clearly in line with the past five years with 12 or 13 movies over the $200 M mark.
The problem is $100 M dollar movies.     Over the past five years we have had an average of 20 movies take in between $100 M and $200 M in domestic box office revenue, this year we have 11.   With the release schedule for the remainder of the year, unless we have several break out hits we will have the fewest number of $100 M or greater movies since 2006.

In 2006 the average movie made $15 M in total domestic box office receipts, which is on the low end but pretty typical for the past 10 years.   In 2016 we are on pace to finish with sub $13 M average.  Major Studio releases are headed for a $59 M average domestic box office receipts compared to $69 M average over the past 5 years.   The lowest total in that time was $66 M.

If you add in the lack luster Blu-Ray and DVD sales and streaming sales (iTunes/Amazon/other) well below expectations how can it be possible that Studios are turning a profit.

The answer is fairly simple, Movie Studios are spending far less money on production of films this year than in past years.   This year of the top 15 films of the year studios spent on average $30 M less in production expenses than the previous 5 years.    When looking at the overall budget for Major Studio films the average has decreased by nearly $14 M a film according to multiple sources.  

X-Men: Apocalypse opens on May 27, lets take a quick look at expectations in the Box Office.

It needs to be noted the film opens on Memorial Day Weekend, a four day weekend which makes predications a bit fickle as it generally messes with comparable films.

Comparable films open between $86 M and $121 M with an average of $97 M for the three day weekends and $115 for a four day weekend.

The film is opening against Disney's Alice Through the Looking Glass starring Johnny Depp as the Mad Hatter which is not a direct competitor but very close competitor when it comes to market share.

The film had solid hype and was well received in the early stages of production however concerns on the look of Apocalypse seem to stall the hype machine for extended periods of time.    Initial reviews where pretty negative, on May 5 the first wave of reviews on rottentomatoes.com put the film at 38 and metacritic at 44.   However subsequent reviews have been much better on May 14th the score on rottentomates.com had increased to 58 and metacritic to 51, which is a fairly substantial jump for both considering the number of reviews.  
What is more interesting is the current scoring of audience reviews, the film is actually the highest rated film in the Franchise.   Yes it is early, but the film is tracking about 5% higher in early fan reviews than it predecessors at this same juncture.

An interesting side note, the length of the film has changed.   On May 1st the film was listed as 2 hours 16 Minutes, in the past few days many sites now list the movie as 2 hours 24 minutes.   It leaves the question on whether all reviewers saw the same cut of the film.

X-Men franchise saw new life with the release of Deadpool earlier this year.   The irreverent R-Rated film set a new standard with $132.4M opening weekend.    Many of suggested a potential Deadpool bump similar to the Avengers bump that all the Marvel films saw.

Four day Memorial day Weekends generate between $215M and $320 M dollars when adjusted for inflation.   Two tent poles released on the same Memorial Day Weekend the numbers are from $275 to $320 M.   If we assume the standard 70% for the tent poles this gives us a $192 M to $225 M for the films.   That in theory suggests $115 M to $135 M on the four day for X-Men on the four day and $93 to $109 M on the three day.

However I think competition on opening weekend and potential holdovers push the numbers down domestically.  

$87 M Opening Weekend ($110M Four Day)
$217 M Domestic Total
$570 M International Total
$787 M World Wide.

Comparable Films

$199M USD

Competition

Zero - No one wants to contend with the big kid on the block

Timing on the Calendar 

No effect based on comparable films using same weekend

Audience Fatigue

-5%, as much as it pains me to say this with several bad films recently the audience is in that worried stage. While this effect will have little impact on opening weekend I am guessing overall we could see the film peter out faster.

Early Hype

No Effect

Late Hype

Movie is sitting at 98% on Rottentomatoes.com with 50 reviews.  

Currently professional Box Office Tracking numbers have this film gaining momentum as release approaches.   A few weeks ago the tracking numbers were mid $150 M USD and it grew to $182 M USD and as of this morning $200 M USD and the author of the report suggests it might be $250.

My approach suggests two tracks, on the "low" end the track comes in in the mid $180 M USD, there is some rounding discussions but we will just say $185 M USD for the purposes of this discussion.   The high end of the track comes in at $220 M USD. 

I have not heard a chorus of reviewers suggesting that film must be seen in Imax 3D or even 3D, which is a little unusual.  It could be that people are just assuming that is standard now OR the film is more thought provoking and the effects are in essence secondary.   Either way I don't think as many people are going to see this film in 3D as some other films recently.   I think that is the Achilles heel for this projection.

Opening Weekend $197 M USD
Domestic Total $518 M USD
International $877 M USD
Total $1.395 B USD

When the first reviews for Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice [BvS]started trickling in from overseas I started downgrading my final forecast of BvS.

My initial estimates based upon a positive critic review (right around 60% on Rottentomatoes.com as a point of reference) were $179 M USD for the weekend domestically.    That by the way is in line with The Dark Knight Rises. There is always some concern when the TKDR is used as a comparison due to the shooting in Aurora Colorado.  In my case I didn't use TKDR in my formula as a comparable film, but the result came out with similar numbers.

The problem is BvS didn't come in at 60% it came in at 42% when I was running the final numbers.   It has since dropped another 12% down to a measly 29%, you know scores below successful movies like Scooby Doo. 

I knew that BvS was going to be front loaded on Friday and that Saturday and Sunday's total box office was going to be equal to Friday's alone.    The question was where was Friday going to fall.    I ended up with a model that suggested Friday would have a $24 M USD in previews on Thursday and $48 M on Friday, for $72 total.     
The numbers provided by WB show I didn't quite get that estimate correct.    With $27.7 M and $54.1 M I underestimated Friday's total be approximately $9 M.      

I estimated Saturday's drop at 41.8% which is what comparable big budget films that scored in the 35 to 40 range on rottentomatoes.com.   At 39% drop while slightly below that number percentage wise it still a percentage of a big number.

Sunday's drop 35% was fairly accurate as we end up at 35.2% drop.  

So $166 M USD domestically is a bit of good news for WB.

Here is the bad news.   The numbers are hinting at a domestic run of between $331 and $375 which is no where near what WB needs to earn to break even on the film.   No before anyone goes off the handle, there are some things that could break WB way on this film.
Boys between the age of 14 and 18 gave the film an A- score according to Cinemascore.   With between 25% and 33% of schools on Spring Break this week that group could make multiple trips to the theaters to see the film.  That alone could push up the end of the Domestic Run into the low $410's.
WB marketing arm may continue to actively market the film, the question becomes how much should they spend at this time.   I have no doubt there will be some marketing, and I believe that marketing will focus on Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman as opposed to the Ben Affleck as Batman campaign before the movie was released.

Predictions Opening Weekend

• Domestic - $139
• International - $175
• World Wide -   $314

Total Box Office

• Domestic - $331
• International - $350
• World Wide - $681

Here is the deal.   Domestically the math in my formula suggests two tracks $130 M and $317 M OR $149 M and $382, when you look at comparable films, competition, timing, audience fatigue, early hype, and late hype.  The formulas aren't full proof (or I would be working for Hollywood) but generally they have been fairly close more times than they have been wrong.  

Let's be honest none of those are big numbers, but they are on the same tracking that many Hollywood insiders have suggested over the past month.   And its not good news for WB and DCU.  Matter of fact it is the opposite of good news.

The very early hype for this movie was extremely negative even some of the movies biggest defenders were not wiling to put too much effort into defending the movie until about six months ago.   Over the last six months people have been climbing on board and suggesting it could be a great movie.    That all went out the window when the first professional reviews hit the news stand.

Currently on Rottentomatoes.com the BvS is sitting at 42% overall and 35% with its top critics, metacritic has it at 47 and other scoring has it in a similar place.   This is all below the rankings of every film in the MCU and only X-Men: Origins Wolverine scored lower in the X-Men Universe.   It is on par with the First Fantastic Four iteration.     In terms of the DCU it is lower than Man of Steel, Nolan's Trilogy and it is slightly higher than Batman and Robin, Catwomen and Green Lantern.
All movies that it has score similar to had biggest day on Friday and slight down Saturday and than down further on Sunday.    In addition all those movies made between 36% and 47% of their total domestic box office on the opening weekend.

If you can ignore the critics ratings, the formula has a different track.   Without the negative reviews I think BvS would earn $179 M domestical and $375 M world wide opening weekend.

Comparable Movies - $45 to 55 Million

My prediction of $217 to $221 was a little off as the movie earned an estimated $188 Million for the weekend.

What happened...

The first question is Audience Fatigue, did it factor in?
The next question is this a trend?

How much did a crowded Sports Weekend factor in, what about the nice weather, bad word of mouth?

Let's start with the busy and unusually "interesting" sports weekend.   There is little doubt that with everything happening on Saturday it hurt the movie at the box office, most guess suggest 5% to 10% lost with NBA game 7's, Kentucky Derby, PPV Boxing and high viewership of NHL games.   That change is between $6 and $12 Million in lost revenue. 

Good Weather over the weekend, it should be noted the Original was released on a weekend of bad weather, also hurt attendance.  For some it was a deciding factor in attending, a spot of rain across the US probably would have saw 5% increase in the box office across America.    

Here is my answer:


Sony 4K 55" TV

The NFL and MLB are struggling to get fans to come to the games, one of the most cited reasons for peoples reluctance to go, new HD TVs.   That's what I have in my TV viewing room (Home Theater).  It clearly impacts the number of films I go see in the theater, I can think of two recent films I decided to wait until I rented the Blu-Ray, it also impacts the number times I see films in the theater, so instead of seeing Avengers: Age of Ultron four times in the theater, the same number as Marvel's The Avengers I probably will see Age of Ultron twice.   Considering I take two and sometimes four people with me, that's $40 to $80 in lost revenue. 

As for the other two a key factor is to watch the numbers for the next two weeks, Avengers earned $400 M in the first two weeks.   If the casual viewers was concerned about crowds at the theaters and decided to stay away for the Weekend the Age of Ultron numbers will match Avengers.   If Age of Ultron isn't in that $370 M range by Friday May 15th, than there will be reason for concern.

In my fan-mail I received a question from James who would like to know:

What are the early [box office] projections for the upcoming super-hero movies? 

Limiting ourselves to the seven films that are currently in filming or post-production for this question lets take a look at these films:

Avengers: Age of Ultron: The biggest limiting factor to breaking every know opening weekend domestic box-office record ever conceived is the lack of large format screens.   The movie will lack some of the luster of its predecessor and clearly has no competition in the box office for weeks before or weeks after.
Prediction - $225 Million Opening Weekend Domestic / $590 M Domestic / $1.1 Billion Overseas

Ant-Man: A quirky Marvel film with no direct connection to the Marvel Cinematic Universe and is considered a part of phase two of marvel films.  

Prediction - $75 M Opening Weekend Domestic / $190 M Domestic / $325 M Overseas

Fantastic Four: A remake of the 2005 campy film less family friendly dropped into a very competitive month.   I doubt the remake will sell more tickets than the previous two movies only inflation will help raise its mark, some.

Prediction - $65 M Opening Weekend Domestic / $140 M Domestic / $275 M Overseas
I have a feeling right now that I am being generous with the Overseas total.  I know that several early predictions have roughly the same number but I am not sure the model is accurate for this film.  

Deadpool: An R Rated super hero film with a lot more social buzz than the others in that category.   A lower budget than many of those films, good social buzz so far.

Prediction - $35 M Opening Weekend Domestic / $90 M Domestic / $200 M Overseas
Hard to predict an R rated movie in this genre, how much potential audience is being blocked out. 

Captain America: Civil War: The Avengers reassemble in a Captain America story line which most likely sees our hero killed at the end of the movie.

Prediction - $150 M Opening Weekend Domestic / $500 M Domestic / $700 M Overseas

X-Men: Apocalypse: The closing of the trilogy of the younger cast bringing in several new faces.

Prediction - $125 M Opening Weekend Domestic / $400 M Domestic / $700 M Overseas

Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice: Our lone DC film on the list, with out much to compare to at the moment.   The buzz is negative or neutral at best at the moment.   Release dates flopped around several times.

Prediction - $125 Million Opening Weekend Domestic / $300 M Domestic / $400 M Overseas

I am putting this out a little early because multiple sites have already placed their predictions.

As many of you know I have a formula that is generally pretty accurate, there occasionally a small hiccup, but with Avengers: Age of Ultron there is a big hiccup to start with.   So this in a way is fun with numbers.

I like to look at five or six comparable movies, with A:AoU I have exactly 1; Marvel's Avengers ($212 M Adjusted).

Competition - None, Zero Zilch Nada.   I have never run this formula without having some sort of competition factor.  Furious 7 opens up April 3rd a full month before and that is the closest thing to competition in the any of the Genres A:AOU has.

Super Hero Weekend Opening - The first week in May has become a traditional opening weekend for Super Hero Movies.  

Audience Fatigue:  It's difficult to gage, a large part of my wants to scream that audiences are getting bored with Super Hero movies, but the numbers don't quite add up that way. 

Early Hype: A:AoU has spent the past year in the top 10 movies on IMDB list, including multiple stints at number 1.   The trailers have a combined 200 Million Views.  Actors have been asked questions a year plus before the release.   Marvel has had several announcements.  I couldn't rate the hype ay higher.

Late Hype: We are a little early for that.  

But there is another category that has to be added for this film, capacity.   I cannot believe I have to actual take this into consideration.

The Avengers: Age of Ultron has the ability to be show on 4600 to 4850 screens in North America (Considered Domestic).   The record is somewhere around 4400 screens, there is little question that AAoU will break that record, the question is how many more screens can be found.  There are only 7600 Screens so 4400 would just under 60% of the total screens.  With so little competition ...
With 4400 Screens over three days you have a maximum revenue of $275 Million; 4850 Screens puts it a shade over $300 M. 

My Formula would suggest that Avengers: Age of Ultron should open at $242 M ($237M/$265M) which would be a 90% Capacity on the screens for three days, that is unheard of. 
It is not simply a solution to add more screens because additional screens will be Standard Definition screens and have a far lower ticket cost... 
At 4600 Screens capacity numbers suggest $212 M
At 4850 Screens capacity numbers suggest $217 M
At 5000 Screens capacity numbers suggest $221 M

Unless there is a mass upgrading of theatres going on I don't know about I have to figure the capacity problems in North America limit A:AoU to between $217 to $221 M on opening weekend.  With a complete domestic run of $775 M and a world wide number $1.93 Billion.

I should note that I predicted $170M for opening weekend of Marvel's The Avengers, which was on the low/average side of predictions of $175 or so.  The Movie opened to $207 shattering expectations.  If I am off by the same amount that puts A:AoU in at $264.5M which is the pretty darn close to the high side of my prediction via the formula.

As of Friday May 30th X-Men: Days of Future Past has surpassed $300 M in international Box Office receipts,  with a $130 M Domestic Box Office (included an estimated $6M for Thursday) the movie now ranks second in Worldwide Box Office for the X-Men franchise.    By the end of the day on Friday it should pass X-Men: The Last Stand as the most successful movie in franchise history, after 8 days of release.

There has been lots of predictions of the movie earning approximately $500 M in foreign box office receipts, however the movie is currently tracking for $620 to $640 M.

With the movie projected to earn $40 M for the weekend domestically the movie should move up the list and be the 4th largest domestic box office in the franchise by Monday Morning, and is still tracking for $250 M total box office take domestically. 

If the movie continues as it is tracking it should end up in the $890 to $930 M range and the third largest worldwide box office in the Marvel brand and in the top 30 of all time.

Lately my Box Office predicting mojo has left me high and dry.   I have completely underestimated both The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Godzilla and now it's time to look at X-Men: Days of Future Past.

My early estimate put the film at $89 M for three days give or take a couple of million.

How do I feel about that number?   Not as good as I did back in April. 

We are looking at a four day weekend and have had two extremely successful box office opening films this month.  

The question that follows is which track will the audience take?   Will the movie follow the more localized X-Men track ($89) or follow the express route shown by the Avengers?

Breaking down the days
Thursday $7.5M to 10M
Friday $23M to $38M
Saturday $32M to $41M
Sunday $20M to $30M
Monday $15M to $30M

Three Day - $82 to $119
Four Day - $97 to $149

So I am going to stick with my estimates ($89 three day and $107 four day), but a lot of other observers have this film tracking a lot higher, in the $125M to $150M for the four day.  I hope I am wrong for a third movie in a row.