A Geeky Viewpoint

My prediction of $217 to $221 was a little off as the movie earned an estimated $188 Million for the weekend.

What happened...

The first question is Audience Fatigue, did it factor in?
The next question is this a trend?

How much did a crowded Sports Weekend factor in, what about the nice weather, bad word of mouth?

Let's start with the busy and unusually "interesting" sports weekend.   There is little doubt that with everything happening on Saturday it hurt the movie at the box office, most guess suggest 5% to 10% lost with NBA game 7's, Kentucky Derby, PPV Boxing and high viewership of NHL games.   That change is between $6 and $12 Million in lost revenue. 

Good Weather over the weekend, it should be noted the Original was released on a weekend of bad weather, also hurt attendance.  For some it was a deciding factor in attending, a spot of rain across the US probably would have saw 5% increase in the box office across America.    

Here is my answer:


Sony 4K 55" TV

The NFL and MLB are struggling to get fans to come to the games, one of the most cited reasons for peoples reluctance to go, new HD TVs.   That's what I have in my TV viewing room (Home Theater).  It clearly impacts the number of films I go see in the theater, I can think of two recent films I decided to wait until I rented the Blu-Ray, it also impacts the number times I see films in the theater, so instead of seeing Avengers: Age of Ultron four times in the theater, the same number as Marvel's The Avengers I probably will see Age of Ultron twice.   Considering I take two and sometimes four people with me, that's $40 to $80 in lost revenue. 

As for the other two a key factor is to watch the numbers for the next two weeks, Avengers earned $400 M in the first two weeks.   If the casual viewers was concerned about crowds at the theaters and decided to stay away for the Weekend the Age of Ultron numbers will match Avengers.   If Age of Ultron isn't in that $370 M range by Friday May 15th, than there will be reason for concern.