A Geeky Viewpoint

At this point I cannot find my post where I specifically wrote back in early 2012 (I will find it and I will post it) that I expect Hugh Jackman and Andrew Garfield to reprise their roles of Wolverine and Spider-Man respectfully in the Avengers 3 movie scheduled for 2018.

Back in July 2013 Hugh Jackman was quoted with suggesting Wolverine should be in a Avengers film.

Mate, I ask the same question.  I literally asked the same question the other day to Tom from Marvel who works with all the other studios, he works with Sony and Fox, that’s his job to liaise.  I said, 'Man, can this happen?' and he goes 'Look, it’s not gonna be easy because you’re working with different studios and they’re their properties.'  But I believe—maybe I’m optimistic, I understand at Marvel they’ve got The Avengers, they’ve got a lot of big things going on, but at some point I just find it almost impossible that there’s not a way to bring Iron Man, all the Avengers characters, Wolverine, the X-Men characters, Spider-Man, and somehow get them in together.  

Last year at Comic Con in San Diego Andrew Garfield stated he would love to see Spider-Man in an Avengers Film.   "I’d love to see [Spider-Man] with The Avengers,” Pause for dramatic Effect “Wouldn’t that just be awesome? Just saying.”
This same tone has been heard recently from not only Andrew Garfield, but Marc Webb, Director of the Amazing Spider-Man movies, “I would love that, as a fan, I think that would be great,” he continued with “I don’t know how that would happen, but I certainly would be supportive of it.”

Kevin Feige, President of Marvel Studios, has been constant with his message down playing and making it sound like it is going to be impossible.   "Their are so many stories to tell." "We have our stories."  "They have their stories"

That message change ever so slightly while he was promoting Thor: The Dark World "I would say, not anytime soon would we be in a position to team up with other studios who [have] a few of our characters, because we have so many characters ourselves," he added "I would never say never."

Moving further back, prior to the release of Marvel's Avengers during a Marvel UK panel in April 2012 Kevin Feige stated "Avengers 3 might be a good movie for the Civil War story line"

Lauren Shuler Donner, Producer of the X-Men movies, was quoted in July 2013 as saying “I would love it. I would love it. I personally have close ties to Marvel because of Kevin Feige, because Kevin worked for me. But to take our characters and mingle them in the way that they were written, yeah, absolutely.”

Yesterday Greg Silverman, President, Creative Development and Worldwide Production Warner Bros. Pictures confirmed in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Warner Bros. has plans for a Justice League movie for sometime in 2018.  
The Justice League movie will be set after Batman vs. Superman set for release in May 6, 2016.   With plans to add a new Green Lantern (suspected to be Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson) Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot) as well as Flash and Aqua Man.  
Even this early in the development cycle and less than 48 hours after first breaking the news many DC fans are speaking in terms of worried and low expectations.
Even though I don't expect to hear directly from Marvel Studios on the topic its another shot from Warner Bros. directly at Marvel Studios.   I wouldn't be surprised to hear Marvel Studios announce a release date to plant a flag for this movie.

So with a Justice League movie coming Marvel Studios needs to kick it up a notch to make sure they continue their roll as leading Super-Hero film studio.

It's not so easy when you have so many egos, personalities, and studios involved, but I think we will see a clear catalyst for one hold-out to change their tune in the near future.

The release of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 [TASM2 for short] is next weekend, back a few weeks ago posted a box office project which was not so rosy for the Movie.   Currently many of Sony's biggest defenders are suggesting a $95 million domestic opening there are many projections of a much lower total, like mine of $72 million.  I won't get into the weird view points of the "Avengers Bounce" for X-Men: Days of Future Past but not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 the real problem is for Sony and Columbia is decreased revenue, especially the all important opening weekend.   IF The Amazing Spider-Man 2 falls short of Sony's revenue projections (approximately $90) Sony will have to take steps.  
Let's assume that TASM2 does fall short, an $80 million opening and $200 domestic total, that would provide only about $150 million in revenue for Sony compared to approximately $140 in the previous installment, which had a $62 million opening weekend.   Those numbers are not going to pay the bills for Sony.
One rumor that keeps appearing on the inter-web is that Sony sells the rights or transfers them to Marvel Studios, a figure roughly of $2 Billion, that's with a B boys and girls, and points on future Spider-Man films.   To me the problem with this rumor is timing, if we see TASM 2 tank and TASM 3 truly tank I think Sony would be far more apt to move along this path.  One less than great movie in terms of revenue does not make a sinking ship, three on the other hand...
The second option is work at getting an Avenger's Bounce.   In the first Amazing Spider-Man film their are dozens of supposed links to the Marvel's Cinematic Universe.   You can all make your own judgments, none the less TASM did not get a bounce.  To get that bounce you need a better connection, I honestly believe had Oscorp Tower appeared in Marvel's Avengers we would not be having this discussion as it would have clearly setup the connection and the bounce would have occurred.   Who failed in those negotiations, while we don't know who wouldn't blink we know that Sony Failed to get the benefit.
The third and final option would be to allow Andrew Garfield to appear as Spider-Man in Avengers 3.   Trust me a substantial bit of money will be involved $30 to $50 millions and points.

A lot of the focus lately is getting Spider-Man into the MCU, its important to look at 20th Century Fox X-Men series of movies.
X-Men: Days of Future Past is scheduled to open in less than a month, even though it has no ties to the MCU its expected to get a Avenger's Bounce, one that The Wolverine did not get last fall.   Yet in the Thor: The Dark World we see series of potential easter egg connections.   The Maruaders, a band of mutant assassins, appear as a rag-tag band of mercenaries.  While Erik Selvig is giving his talk on the interconnection of the worlds, on the black board dozens of easter eggs appear in the writing, including the fault (Thanos Reference), as well as X-Force reference, Yost and Kyle (last names of the creators of the X-Force). 
Factoring in a more friendly relationship between Lauren Shuler Donner and Kevin Feige, who used to work at Donner along with Avi Arad, add in that multiple people are talking about it and I smell at least strong discussions on bringing Wolverine to the MCU. 

I should point out that 20th Century Fox and Marvel Studios current friendship was not always the case and a contentious court battle occurred in 1999/2000/2001 between the two over a potential TV series called Mutant X.   

So that said, unless TASM 2 blows away box office sales this weekend I suspect that more pressure will be added to bring these two characters to Avengers 3.    It appears to be a situation where everyone could win.