A Geeky Viewpoint

Comparable Films

$199M USD

Competition

Zero - No one wants to contend with the big kid on the block

Timing on the Calendar 

No effect based on comparable films using same weekend

Audience Fatigue

-5%, as much as it pains me to say this with several bad films recently the audience is in that worried stage. While this effect will have little impact on opening weekend I am guessing overall we could see the film peter out faster.

Early Hype

No Effect

Late Hype

Movie is sitting at 98% on Rottentomatoes.com with 50 reviews.  

Currently professional Box Office Tracking numbers have this film gaining momentum as release approaches.   A few weeks ago the tracking numbers were mid $150 M USD and it grew to $182 M USD and as of this morning $200 M USD and the author of the report suggests it might be $250.

My approach suggests two tracks, on the "low" end the track comes in in the mid $180 M USD, there is some rounding discussions but we will just say $185 M USD for the purposes of this discussion.   The high end of the track comes in at $220 M USD. 

I have not heard a chorus of reviewers suggesting that film must be seen in Imax 3D or even 3D, which is a little unusual.  It could be that people are just assuming that is standard now OR the film is more thought provoking and the effects are in essence secondary.   Either way I don't think as many people are going to see this film in 3D as some other films recently.   I think that is the Achilles heel for this projection.

Opening Weekend $197 M USD
Domestic Total $518 M USD
International $877 M USD
Total $1.395 B USD