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Sony Corporation released its latest recap of its financial earlier this week, a summary of the report can be seen here at Bloomberg.
A spokesman from Sony said "New 'Spider-Man' movies and more content based on PlayStation video games will help drive revenue growth of as much as 36 percent at its pictures unit during the next three years."
Wow, two options here:
1) Sony has a major card or two tucked up it sleeve that no one knows about.
2) Sony is in major denial about the state of its Spider-Man pictures.
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| Plane Crash from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 |
Lets cover the basics, this year Sony Picture released 17 movies and had 3 holdovers from 2013 and earned $1.189 Billion Dollars in revenue so far in 2014. That's on pace to be $1.3 Billion which is on par with average revenue sine 2000.
According to Box Office Mojo the top movies for 2014 were:
- Amazing Spider-Man 2 $202 ($708)
- 22 Jump Street $191 ($330)
- The Equalizer $98 ($189)
- Heaven is Real $91 ($101)
- The Monuments Men $74 ($154)
- Fury $73 ($156)
- Think Like a Man too $65 ($70)
- Robocop $58 ($252)
Not included on that list are Sex Tape $38 ($126) and Pompeii $23 ($117).
Out of that list of movies which movies out performed realistic expectations?
22 Jump Street and Heaven is Real.
The Equalizer, The Monuments Men, and Think Like a Man Too all came in on the lower end of realistic expectations. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 I would list at expectations (I predicted $200 and $700) however the movie did not earn what the Studio thought it could.
The other 11 movies Sony released were all below expectations in terms of earning in theatrical release. Some slightly, some dramatically below.
So what does Sony Pictures revenue look like if the 11 movies that underperformed hit the bottom of expectations? Well roughly it would be an increase of $130 to $150 Million in Revenue. Throw in The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and you end up in the neighborhood of $250 Million more in Revenue or 22% increase.
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| Deleted Scene from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 |
But here is where it gets murky for Sony. In 2015 Sony / Columbia Pictures has only announced the release of 11 movies? Beyond Bond 24, you have Hotel Transylvania 2, and Popeye both are cartoons. 2016 looks just as dismal and 2017 looks worse without anything that would be considered a Tent-Pole announced so far. Let us not even start with comparison to Buena Vista (Disney), 20th Century Fox or Warner Bros. as there really is no comparison in terms of what the other distributors have on their lists.
There is no way with that core of movies Sony Pictures can increase its revenue by 36%. Further with only one Spider-Man film in that time frame (The Sinister Six Nov 2016) I am really confused how is that going to work out.
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