A Geeky Viewpoint

When the first reviews for Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice [BvS]started trickling in from overseas I started downgrading my final forecast of BvS.

My initial estimates based upon a positive critic review (right around 60% on Rottentomatoes.com as a point of reference) were $179 M USD for the weekend domestically.    That by the way is in line with The Dark Knight Rises. There is always some concern when the TKDR is used as a comparison due to the shooting in Aurora Colorado.  In my case I didn't use TKDR in my formula as a comparable film, but the result came out with similar numbers.

The problem is BvS didn't come in at 60% it came in at 42% when I was running the final numbers.   It has since dropped another 12% down to a measly 29%, you know scores below successful movies like Scooby Doo. 

I knew that BvS was going to be front loaded on Friday and that Saturday and Sunday's total box office was going to be equal to Friday's alone.    The question was where was Friday going to fall.    I ended up with a model that suggested Friday would have a $24 M USD in previews on Thursday and $48 M on Friday, for $72 total.     
The numbers provided by WB show I didn't quite get that estimate correct.    With $27.7 M and $54.1 M I underestimated Friday's total be approximately $9 M.      

I estimated Saturday's drop at 41.8% which is what comparable big budget films that scored in the 35 to 40 range on rottentomatoes.com.   At 39% drop while slightly below that number percentage wise it still a percentage of a big number.

Sunday's drop 35% was fairly accurate as we end up at 35.2% drop.  

So $166 M USD domestically is a bit of good news for WB.

Here is the bad news.   The numbers are hinting at a domestic run of between $331 and $375 which is no where near what WB needs to earn to break even on the film.   No before anyone goes off the handle, there are some things that could break WB way on this film.
Boys between the age of 14 and 18 gave the film an A- score according to Cinemascore.   With between 25% and 33% of schools on Spring Break this week that group could make multiple trips to the theaters to see the film.  That alone could push up the end of the Domestic Run into the low $410's.
WB marketing arm may continue to actively market the film, the question becomes how much should they spend at this time.   I have no doubt there will be some marketing, and I believe that marketing will focus on Gal Gadot as Wonder Woman as opposed to the Ben Affleck as Batman campaign before the movie was released.