A Geeky Viewpoint

Image courtesy of Warner Bros.

Predictions Opening Weekend

• Domestic - $139
• International - $175
• World Wide -   $314

Total Box Office

• Domestic - $331
• International - $350
• World Wide - $681

Here is the deal.   Domestically the math in my formula suggests two tracks $130 M and $317 M OR $149 M and $382, when you look at comparable films, competition, timing, audience fatigue, early hype, and late hype.  The formulas aren't full proof (or I would be working for Hollywood) but generally they have been fairly close more times than they have been wrong.  

Let's be honest none of those are big numbers, but they are on the same tracking that many Hollywood insiders have suggested over the past month.   And its not good news for WB and DCU.  Matter of fact it is the opposite of good news.

The very early hype for this movie was extremely negative even some of the movies biggest defenders were not wiling to put too much effort into defending the movie until about six months ago.   Over the last six months people have been climbing on board and suggesting it could be a great movie.    That all went out the window when the first professional reviews hit the news stand.

Currently on Rottentomatoes.com the BvS is sitting at 42% overall and 35% with its top critics, metacritic has it at 47 and other scoring has it in a similar place.   This is all below the rankings of every film in the MCU and only X-Men: Origins Wolverine scored lower in the X-Men Universe.   It is on par with the First Fantastic Four iteration.     In terms of the DCU it is lower than Man of Steel, Nolan's Trilogy and it is slightly higher than Batman and Robin, Catwomen and Green Lantern.
All movies that it has score similar to had biggest day on Friday and slight down Saturday and than down further on Sunday.    In addition all those movies made between 36% and 47% of their total domestic box office on the opening weekend.

If you can ignore the critics ratings, the formula has a different track.   Without the negative reviews I think BvS would earn $179 M domestical and $375 M world wide opening weekend.

Box Office totals for weekend stand at an estimated $135 M 132.7 M USD, making it the largest Febuary Release to date, the largest Rated R release and yes the largest release by 20th Century Fox, with the caveat that Star Wars films weren't released on Friday.

Comparable Movies - $45 to 55 Million

At 7 PM central on Thursday December 17th I caught a midnight showing of Friday's release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens - SWTFA for short.   Yeah, it's complicated. 
Here's the deal.  I would like to make this review as spoiler free as possible, but it wouldn't be a very good review.  There will be some references to the movie and some will be contextual, but if you haven't seen the film you have been warned everything in here is a potential spoiler.

In case you missed the warning spoilers. I am going to talk about what happens in the movie.  If you are not apart of the 32 Million Americans who saw this movie already and care about what happens stop reading.   You have been warned.

Quick Commentary

Reviews of the SWTFA by movie going masses probably mirror that of the critics.   Five percent of the audience are probably not happy with the film (thumbs down), ten to fifteen percent will give the film mixed reviews and the remaining eighty to eighty-five percent will give the movie a solid thumbs up and better. 

One of my favorite review was from a gentlemen who usually reviews Shakespeare's plays in Europe, in which he basically wrote, not my cup of tea but my boss said I had to review the film.  He of course is not in the 95% of reviewers that generally like the movie.

Regardless of where most reviewers came down I think they all have some very valid points.   I clearly fall into the ten to fifteen percent of people who have very mixed emotions about this film.  I liked the film overall and think the people who put the film together did a fairly decent job; however I think this film could have been galactically awesome had circumstances allowed it.

I am going to rip into the heart of this movie, not because I think it was a bad movie, rather because it teetered on greatness and fell short.  Its like looking at the silver medal and thinking about how you lost gold rather than what an achievement a silver medal is.

The Bean Counters at Disney!

The biggest flaw to SWTFA is most likely directly pointed at the actuaries in Disney's accounting office.   To maximize profit the film needed to fit into a very tight time window.   If you include the trailers at the beginning of the movie, the public service like commercials for the theater, the movie itself, and the amount of time to change over a theater to show the movie again (people out, clean, people in) you have approximately 3 hours if you want to show the film 5 times per day per screen.    In that three hours you have 2 hours and 15 minutes for the film.   SWTFA clocks in at 2 hours and 16 minutes.  Needless to say there is not a whole lot of additional time, if any at all, to keep SWTFA in that 3 hour window needed to show a movie 5 times.   Even one or two additional minutes of film could have resulted in the window being 3 hours and 15 minutes and reducing the number of showings to 4 at some/many or all screens depending on who you talk to.

How does that decision effect the movie?   It is clearly evident in the editing of the film.  Numerous scenes lack flow within the film.  One in particular during the light of the dying sun,  the scene, the music score and the importance of the act do not necessarily sync properly.  Through out the movie there a dozen plus scenes in which a few seconds here and there seemed to be shaved off each of them.  
The transition from one scene to the next in many instances is abrupt and lacks the smoothness typical of Oscar winning films; for the lack of a better way to describe it.  A few were done by choice others seemed forced.
These edits clearly effect the ebbs and flow of the film.

The editing appeared to effect the timing of the score; like the score was written for a slightly longer movie and then edited to fit the shorter box.

Beyond the Ebb and Flow of the film there are several entire scenes removed from the final cut.  There is some question on when many of the scenes were cut from the movie, but three in particular have been identified.

The movie was to originally open with the Battle of Jakku.  The battle occurs 1 year and 4 days after the battle of Endor, in the Star Wars timeline and was Grand Admiral Akbar's greatest victory.   To me personally that 5 minutes worth of film should have better connected the original trilogy with the latest films and provided much context for the films backstory.
A second scene provided back ground on Captain Phasma and the rise of the First Order. 
A third scene involved Chewbacca and Rey and explained why Chewbacca and Rey became a "team" at the end of the film.
Those are three scenes that I know of that were left on the cutting room floor, what other scenes are there?   J.J. Abrams has acknowledged that 20 minutes of near completed film was cut to bring the film down to 2 hours and 16 minutes.   Another 40 minutes worth of story was filmed, so is it a 60 minutes or 40 minutes of additional story?

Definition of Insanity!

It is never explained why the First Order is attempting to use the same blue print to control the Galaxy as the Empire, which failed, twice.   It is for all intensive purposes a huge plot hole large enough to fly a Super Star Destroyer sideways.  

There are a number of plot holes in the film, the biggest one being its basically a copy of two films smashed together.  

Its all about the Characters.

We are introduced to some new characters and reintroduced to some old characters.   Not everyone of these characters works in this film; and for different reasons.

Before jumping into this on a deeper level I have a disclaimer to put out.  I have read all of the former cannon materials, supposed treatments of the final trilogy of movies by George Lucas, and pieced together things that were cut from this movie from all the interviews everyone has done.   So I am not just talking about what's on the film, but in many cases what isn't.

In the original script (supposedly it was changed after principal filming was concluded) Poe Dameron, played by Oscar Isaac, sacrificed himself by crashing his X-Wing into the Starkiller base to destabilize the weapon.   When the end of the story was changed it didn't change his story arc during the movie.   I understand why he wasn't killed off but it should of had a ripple effect through the story, it didn't.  As he is now a "principal" character he is very much under utilized through out the movie.   I am in many ways reminded of Wedge Antillies in the original trilogy.

FN-2187 - aka Finn - played by John Boyega is the most complete character in the film.  I wouldn't be shocked to discover that I some of the earlier drafts of the film he was the primary character on who the story centered upon.

Rey - aka Mary Sue - played by Daisy Ridley.  Here is the deal, if Finn was the most complete character in this film, Rey is the most incomplete.  Don't get me wrong that may be done on purpose so it could be explored in the next films, but it was really disheartening considering she became the primary vehicle in telling this story.  
So why did I call he a Mary Sue?   Let start by explaining what a Mary Sue is in terms of writing.  A Mary Sue (or Gary Sue if the character is male) is a character inserted into a story that is too perfect, too good at everything.   These characters are extremely popular in Fan Fiction in which the author inserts a perfect copy of themselves into a story.  What isn't she good at?  
Rey is so good at everything, her character is never truly at risk. This is very much unlike the original trilogy where everyone is always at risk and we bond with those characters because they appear more human.

Ben Solo - Kylo Ren - This is a wonderfully complicated character that almost works perfectly.  The portrayal of this character is so close to perfect it makes the flaws much more apparent. 
To begin with lets start with the name.  Jacen Solo is the character in the books who becomes a Sith Lord (Darth Sideous) and changing his name to Ben distracts from the character.   I understand that they are changing the continuum and wanted to move away from what was formerly cannon, but the name change gnaws at me.
They have all but said the character suffers from a Multiple Personality disorder, but don't quite go that far in the film.  If the character does than do it, if he doesn't well you went too far in demonstrating it.  Like so many things in the film you end up in the grey area when either black or white would have been better. 

Han Solo, if Poe Dameron was underutilized during the film than the opposite is very true for Harrison Ford's character, Han Solo, who is over utilized.  I get it that the story became Han Solo centric when the powers that be decided to kill off Han Solo.   The problem is the film isn't and Han Solo is forced upon us.  There are a number of very good scenes with Han Solo, but too many are simply there for the character to be on the screen as if too remind us how wonderful he is.   In my first viewing I uttered he was a dead-man when he finally hugged Leia.

Each of those characters have a unique and fairly complicated story arc in this film.  It is incredibly ambitious of a filmmaker to try and tell two story arcs in a single film, you could argue that Peter Jackson is one of the only successful filmmakers to do it recently with Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.  Here J.J. Abrams is telling four major story arcs and three or four minor story arcs interwoven into a single movie.   SWTFA is mostly successful in telling these various stories.   

General Hux, Captain Phasma, why are they important to the story?  Too little is known about these characters and it also touches upon what we know about the Knights of Ren?   

Failed Cliff Hanger!

WTF was with the end of the movie?  
Why in the name of the force did the Rebel Alliance who has been looking for Luke Skywalker for years allow Rey and Chewbacca to go and find him?  You know two characters who literally walked into their alliance two days prior? 
And that final scene, oh how it doesn't work in film.   Clearly a TV guy wrote that ending because it does work on that medium but not in Movies.   It frustrates movie audiences.   Further it deprived the audience of that moment to clap and cheer.   People kept waiting around for more.   It may have worked as a post credit scene.

Unanswered Questions?

Many sites have compiled lists of unanswered questions ranging from "who is Lor San Tekka?" and "what is the division of power in the galaxy?" Maybe in another post I will break down the questions but the problem remains that there are just too many simple questions that should have been answered. 

Oscar worthy?

Best Picture - Sure to be nominated.  The only category with ten nominations I doubt Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be excluded simply because of the fact it could draw 10 million more viewers to the show.

Best Director - With only five directors to be on the ballot I think chances are J.J. Abrams will not be nominated.   Ridley Scott (The Martian), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), and Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) are shoe ins for the ballot.   The remaining two spots sees Todd Haynes (Carol), Alejandro Inarritu (Revenant), Ryan Coogler (Creed) and Adam McKay (The Big Short) duking it out.   

Best Actress - Daisy Ridley performance as Rey in most years would easily garner a nomination and in some years a much closer look.   However this is not most years and just like Best Director category the Best Actress category is stacked with four shoe ins for the nominations and four or five deserving actresses vying for the fifth nomination.

Best Actor in a supporting role - Harrison Ford will receive a lot of consideration for the award.  I would only be mildly surprised if he receives a nomination but not shocked.  Out of the all the major categories I feel this is the weakest in terms of depth this year.

Best Score - John Williams will surely be nominated for what many people believe is his last major project.  With a long history with the academy and many wins and more nominations it is not inconceivable that this score wins one last award for John Williams.

Screenplay - The first problem is what category does this film belong in, original or adapted?   That confusion alone will be enough to keep it from being nominated.

Lesser Categories
Cinematography - Editing - Sound - Costume Design - Production Design - Visual Effects - Hairstyling/Makeup - The academy in recent years has liked more indie style films than large scale epics in almost every one of these instances.  Unless their is a change of heart in the voting booth this year I do not see SWTFA receiving more than a token award.