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Box Office Mojo published it's 2014 Summer Predictions.
Amazing Spider-Man 2
This movie is tough to gage. The Sam Raimi trio of films were pretty well received and did $114, $85, and $151 million on opening weekend, by comparison "The Amazing Spider-Man" pulled in $62 Million over the Fourth of July weekend in 2012. Last year's Iron Man 3 pulled in $174 million on opening weekend. So we have an apples to oranges issues already going on.
Domestically the opening weekend should be in the 65 to 80 million Range, with a guess that low 70s is about right.
The first "Amazing Spider-Man" opened over the Fourth of July Weekend, as opposed to the first weekend in May which has become a Superhero driven weekend.
The key to me however is looking at the number of trailer views on YouTube. The initial Trailer has been viewed 29 million times, the subsequent trailers are in the 6 million range. That's not good, you would expect a movie to build buzz and the later trailers to be in the 50% range at this time, being only at 20% indicates that the anticipation amongst potential audience is not there.
Unless there is a massive change in people's perceptions of this film in the next two weeks its not looking good for Sony's Marvel Universe.
Overall Domestically I am guessing that $180 to $210 would be a positive position for this film to end in at this time, while Sony would like a lot more, I just don't see it having the legs or the audience appeal, considering its four weeks after Captain America and four weeks before Days of Future Past.
Internationally you could see 70 percent meaning it stays flat internationally in terms of revenue while decreases domestically giving it a mark at $700 which would by far be the worst numbers of the series for Sony.
Domestically the opening weekend should be in the 75 to 95 million Range, with a guess that 89 is about right.
In the past three years we don't have true comparable, based upon schedule and genre. Last year Iron Man 3 dominated the market, but it was one of 2 Sci-Fi movies for over a month.
With Godzilla opening the weekend before and Amazing Spiderman 2 four weeks prior there is a chance of a little Sci-Fi burnout taking place. My guess is its Godzilla who takes it in the shorts in terms of attendance.
The last two movies in the series have been low in terms of turnout, and their numbers have been in the mid $50s. The reviews of both were slightly positive but with a negative undertone. The trailers for the last two movies underperformed, while X-Men Origins: Wolverine had very well received trailers and was extremely disliked by audiences.
Domestically I am guessing, based on comparable films that low $200 would be acceptable, the under over about $219.
Internationally the X-Men series has been better received, guessing that 55 to 60% of the receipts will be international markets. That suggests in the neighborhood of $585 Million.
Edit - April 24
In looking at several other predictions its clear that the other predictions are giving X-Men: Days of Future Past an "Avengers Bump" that I am not giving out. In my mind the "Avengers Bump" is applied via of the comparable Super-Hero movies in my formula, however for clarity if I use a true "Avengers Bump" the numbers become $130/150 opening, $360 Total Domestic and $1.05 Billion International. I like many other predictors don't think ticket sales that high are out of the question just not very likely (maybe 25% chance.) We should know more where the Late Hype meter is in about two weeks.
So I have to admit I am kind of excited by the latest X-Men movie "Days of Future Past" and for the past couple of days have been watching the geek channel, I mean youTube, catching up on what several sites have to say when I clicked on the Michael Fassbender's Magneto featurette found on xmen.norton.com (facebook) website.
You know exclusive footage of the film, in which it provides 60 seconds worth of film of which most 30 to 45 seconds is released in other formats, but after watching the first several and noting the little details on my last featurette, I about lost it, I was so steamed, frelling pissed is more like it.
A Few Lines that matter.
Ellen Page (out of character): "The Sentinels were created by Dr. Trask these incredible Mutant-Machine hybrids."
Professor X: "He [Dr. Trask] is going to capture her. ... And then they are going to wipe us out."
Magento: "Not if we change history tomorrow."
So what have we learned ...
According to multiple sources Channing Tatum is in talks to play Remy LeBeau, AKA Gambit, in a future X-Men movie.
Taylor Kitsch played the role of Remy LeBeau in X-Men Origins: Wolverine.
