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Fox's second to the last X-Men film is about to hit theaters and Disney is about to get stuck between a Rock and Hard place with a decision it has to make concerning the X-Men films.
Dark Phoenix was not expected to be very good and thanks to throwing money at the film it became a lot more expensive than it was originally planned. Many expected the film to end the X-Men universe from Fox with a whimper.
The film is currently sitting at a 25% on rottentomatoes.com, it is not very good. I hear you all saying it. Read the reviews. Many reviewers were simply looking for a comic book movie to take out their displeasure with comic book movies on. They didn't dare attack the MCU and the DCEU and Hellboy aren't big enough targets. The reviewers who actually like comic books or comic book films actually liked or at least didn't dislike the film. Based upon Metacritic.com the average score for those that liked the film, the top 55% was ~65 out of 100. The bottom 44% is ~28 out of 100. That's a wide gulf of difference of opinion. In looking at the critic scores not put into metacritic yet I think there is a good possibility the gulf grows.
Dark Phoenix is not a good movie, but it isn't a bad movie and nowhere near as bad as it rottentomatoes.com score either. The real score will be better measured by cinemascore or other similar metric. Do the people that see the movie like the movie? Does Dark Phoenix get positive word of mouth?
This is where Disney and Marvel Studios run into their conundrum. Dark Phoenix was expected to lose money, lots of it. Giving Disney the easy answer in ending the X-Men Universe. Problem is it might end up making money and end up in the black. As one analyst suggested it is not improbable that the film makes $50 to $100 Million in profit.
How does it get into the black?
$150 domestic and $450 overseas or $125 domestic and $525 foreign earns $300 in revenues on a $200 Million dollar film (plus marketing). That's about $50 in the black.
This isn't the first time that the X-Men were on the chopping block.
So what happens if Dark Phoenix ends in the black with a solid cinemascore from fans?
Well it is complicated.
The answer may lie with a few statements made by past directors of the X-Men franchise not named Bryan Singer. Simon Kinberg recently spoke about how professional and organized Marvel Studios are in comparison to 20th Century Fox. How things like schedules and budgets and special effects and oversight are better with Marvel Studios. Gavin Hood, Brett Ratner, and Matthew Vaughn have been critical to the lack of support and changes made, often without their knowledge, by 20th Century Fox. James Mangold hasn't openly criticized 20th Century Fox, but he suggested that The Wolverine was held back by some 20th Century Fox issues.
When Disney finally decides to do something with the X-Men they have three very different options to choose from.
1) A Hard reboot and Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe
2) A Soft Reboot and a Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe
3) A Soft Reboot and a separate X-Men Universe.
Most fans are in favor of option 1. It is all over the fan pages and forums. And before I saw Dark Phoenix I was in that spot.
Option 3 has been pitched to Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, but he has publicly stated that Disney will be happy to put X-Men under Marvel Studios.
Option 2 seemed ridiculous two days-ago. If Marvel Studios will be the production company, than a Hard Reboot, cut from 20th Century Fox X-Men seemed all but assured.
At the moment I think Option 1 is still the most likely solution, but neither Option 2 nor Option 3 should be removed completely from the table, yet.
The bigger the box office the more likely they movie down the list. If Dark Phoenix post $50 to $100 Million in profit option 2 becomes a stronger choice and if for some reason the movie brings in $200 Million plus in profit (Talking about a $750 world wide take) option 3 comes into play.
Me personally I think option 2 is the good choice, but there is no best choice.
Bob Iger what are you going to do?
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