A Geeky Viewpoint

The other day I wrote a small piece on the surprising profits that many studios have announced recently.    I have received a request to clarify a section.

In 2016 we have 8 movies domestically reach $200 M or more in box office receipts.  With 4 potential additional movies that may reach that plateau by years end.   This is clearly in line with the past five years with 12 or 13 movies over the $200 M mark.
The problem is $100 M dollar movies.     Over the past five years we have had an average of 20 movies take in between $100 M and $200 M in domestic box office revenue, this year we have 11.   With the release schedule for the remainder of the year, unless we have several break out hits we will have the fewest number of $100 M or greater movies since 2006.

The domestic box office tracking numbers in Millions of Dollars US for some forthcoming movies:

Title:     Opening Weekend:    Total:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story |  $125-$150 ($135) | $375-$410 ($405)
Moana* | $60M-$80M ($65) | $250-$300 ($285)
Doctor Strange | $88 M | $250-$300 ($275)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them | $70-$90 ($75) | $175-$210 ($205)
Passengers* | $30-$40 ($35) | $125-$200 ($175)
Sing* | $15-$30 ($25) | $95 - $125 ($115)
Trolls | $30 | $65 - $125 ($110)
Arrival | $20-$35 ($25) | $75-$95 ($90)

*Opens prior to the weekend

Some notes on these:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story has been holding steady since the first numbers started trickling out during the late summer.   There is an idea that the film has legs and will make an decent 3x its opening weekend.     Many of the top films of the past couple of years are 2.0 to 2.2X multipliers.   However it is not predicted to have a Star Wars like opening.  

Five of the remaining seven movies are trending down, the exceptions are Doctor Strange and Arrival, when looking at their tracking numbers over the past month.  

Moana is tracking below Zootopia and Big Hero Six in terms of online hits, hashtags and so forth one month before its release, yet it trending above both in terms of its tracking numbers.

The tracking numbers for Trolls are very divergent in terms of their range.   Many associate this to a question about how a toy from the 80's will work for children of the 2010's?