Box Office Watch - Summer 2016

Posted by Jeff Labels: ,


In 1975 the Movie industry watched and rewatched JAWS the Universal studios summer release.   JAWS was the movie that many people point to as the start of the Summer Blockbuster or Tent-Pole film.  A Tent-Pole was a film expected to hold up the earnings of an entire studio, in essence a film that generated a large enough profit it allowed the studio to release many financially less successful films without losing money.
 
 
JAWS was unique in that it was the first time a Movie Studio marketed a film as a tent-pole; it was even more unique as it was not only a tent-pole but marketed during the summer where very few movies had been successful ever in the industry.  
 
Between 1975 and 1982 the paradigm shifted from being a graveyard to the hottest season of the year.  Prior to 1974 Movie Studios typically earned les than 10% of revenue from movies released during the summer.  After 1982 the lowest overall domestic was 38% with typical number more like 42%. 
 
This year we have 15 films that can easily be called tent-poles released during the "summer" from May through August a period of 17 weeks and another five where you can argue whether or not they qualify as tent-poles.   This does not include films like Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, released in March.   In 1982 there were 7 tent-pole films, but 5 of those were of modest budget and are more like Angry Birds than Captain America: Civil War.
 
Over the past five years, not including 2016, there has been around 10 Tent-Pole films released each summer, five have been successful, three moderately successful, and two have flopped.  I looked back further, back to 1982.  Only one year, 2010, saw more than five successful tent-poles, with six.  It should also note that five of the ten most successful films were animated features.   I would also add the further back you go the more argument over what is or is not a tent-pole film takes place. 
 
The predictions (and current box office) for 2016 are suggesting five will be successful, six will be moderately successful and four will flop.  
  • Captain America: Civil War - Successful
  • X-Men: Apocalypse - Moderately Successful
  • Alice through the Looking Glass - Flop

Predictions
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - Flop to Moderately Successful
  • Warcraft: The Beginning - Flop
  • Finding Dory - Successful
  • Independence Day : Resurgence - Moderately Successful
  • The Legend of Tarzan - Flop to Moderately Successful
  • The Secret Life of Pets - Moderately Successful to Successful
  • Ghostbusters (2016) - Moderately Successful
  • Ice Age: Collision Course - Moderately Successful to Successful
  • Star Trek: Beyond - Flop to Moderately Successful
  • Jason Bourne - Moderately Successful to Successful
  • Suicide Squad - Moderately Successful
  • Ben-Hur (2016) Moderately Successful to Flop

Films whose cost may make them "tent-poles"
  • Angry Birds - Moderately Successful
  • Now You See Me 2 - Moderately Successful
  • Kubo and the Two Strings - Moderately Successful
  • The BFG - Moderately Successful to Flop
  • Pete's Dragon - Moderately Successful to Successful

So from this list what movies will most likely be are four Flops, fail to make production costs back.
  • Alice Through the Looking Glass
  • Warcraft: The Beginning
  • The Legend of Tarzan
  • Ben-Hur (2016)

Studios should be worried about the following films
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  • Star Trek: Beyond
  • The BFG

Most likely to be Moderately Successful, make the studios money back and maybe turn a small profit.
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Pete's Dragon
  • Suicide Squad
  • Angry Birds
  • Now You See Me 2
  • Ice Age: Collision Course
  • X-Men: Apocalypse

Movies that could exceed expectations
  • Independence Day : Resurgence
  • Jason Bourne
  • Ghostbuster (2016)

Most likely to be Successful, clearly turning a profit.
  • Captain America: Civil War
  • Finding Dory
  • The Secret Life of Pets
I should be clear even though historically 5 of 10 best movie box offices come from the summer months we may be in for a change.
 
Deadpool, Zootopia, and Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice and The Jungle Book are almost assured to be in the top ten of the box office at the end of the year.   Add in Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, plus outside chances that Doctor Strange, Magnificent Seven, and Passengers could this be the year we have less than five summer tent-poles in the top ten?

Personally I think several factors are in play;
  • Movie Studios are less concerned about the date on the calendar as they are to quality of the film.   Thank Disney for that change. 
  • The increased competition is destroying repeat business during the summer months.
  • In recent years Animated G and PG films are doing better during the summer months while movies with PG-13 and higher ratings are seeing more success around the calendar.   Which makes sense when you think of kids in school. 
With that in mind I think there is a decent chance that only three movies will make the top ten in the box office this year, however I believe that we can reasonable expect that only four end up on the list.    

I should point out that the current movie calendar for the summer in 2017 only has 13 clear tent-poles and summer 2018 has only 9. 

What do you think?

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