Posts
Comparable Movies - $45 to 55 Million
Competition - 0
Calendar - $10 Million
Movie Fatigue - 0*
Hype - 15%
Prediction $67 M
There are many in Hollywood that are predicting this movie may make a run at the largest February movie opening - Fifty Shades of Grey which $85 M last year. Several Hollywood insiders suggest the film is tracking at $81 M. I don't want to get to caught up in these big numbers because the film would have to upwards deviate from its track by 22% which is hard to see.
We should be able to tell where Deadpool is tracking by Friday morning with the Thursday previews. I'm expecting the Thursday previews to run in the $12.5 M range, a deviation in either direction of $2.5 should tell us where the movie will ended up.
Here is my take, first this is one of the first Imax films for 20th Century Fox, with ticket prices roughly double that of standard films. The fanbois are all in for the extra $8 a ticket, but how many non-fanbois are willing to spend that kind of money? It doesn't have a real 3-D version, so there is no in-between.
Looking at past results and making an guesstimate we can derive a number of between $10 and $17 M in Imax, for my estimate I am going with $14M. As an aside Imax records $30 Star Wars: The Force Awakens, $20 Jurassic World, $18 Avengers: Age of Ultron.
The second option for the audience is a standard 2d film. This is where the prediction gets difficult. Without a 3d option for the audience your left looking at the film making $53 M in that category. If the film had a 3d option this number would be roughly $67 M and $81 would make total sense.
What about your past predictions of Deadpool in the $35 M range?
Good Question, I am glad I asked. My last public prediction for Deadpool was in April of 2015, almost a year ago. About a month ago I upped my prediction from $35 to $55 M internally and today as we close in on the opening I upped it again to $67
Rated R comic book (or similar) movies generally open in the $17.5 to $35 M range depending on the quality of the film. There was little reason to believe that Deadpool would deviate from that norm prior to updates about a month ago. Since then it has earned a solid 80 plus score on rottentomatoes.com, 64 on Metacritic.com and hey marks from early showings all of those are substantial higher than the other rated r movies I used in tracking.
There hasn't been very little bad or negative hype about this movie. That is pretty unusual considering the source material, its rating and studio.
1 comments:
In Thursday Evening Previews "Deadpool" earned an estimated $12.7 M USD making it the largest R rated preview to date. The domestic take topped "The Hangover Part II" take 10.4 M USD in 2011.
Post a Comment