A Geeky Viewpoint

The short answer is no, or rather not at the moment.

The long answer is complicated.

Sony Corporation looked at selling all or parts of Sony Entertainment for the better part of 18 months, when it became apparent that there were no viable buyers willing to spend what Sony considered an appropriate amount of money for any segment of the business it decided to move on.  

Recently activist investor Dan Loeb, with the backing of his hedge fund, has been purchasing stock in Sony Corporation; the parent company to Sony Entertainment.    Dan Loeb is vocal in his plan to divest (sell/spin off) aspects of Sony Corporation to increase shareholder value.   As of April 20th his hedge fund was the largest single shareholder of Sony Corporation at 6%.   Dan Loeb's plan calls for selling Sony Entertainment or spin it off as a new corporation separate from Sony, using the sale of the company (and or stock) to further fund the electronics segment of Sony Corporation.  

Sony Entertainment is made of four distinct subsidiaries, Sony Pictures, Sony Television, Sony Music, and Sony Music Publishing.  There is clearly not a buyer for the Sony Entertainment as a whole, but could Two or three of the subsidiaries be sold and the fourth spun off?

The other aspect of activist investors it puts increased pressure on the individual parts to be profitable, an asset rather than a liability as a whole.   In calendar year 2019 Sony Pictures and Sony Television were profitable, I am not sure about the music side of the house.   There is now pressure on those units to continue to be profitable, they cannot revert back into being a liability.    

Here is a date to remember, Jun 18th 2019, Sony's next general stockholders meeting and vote to confirm the new board of directors, Dan Loeb is not currently a member.    During general stockholder's meetings is when activist investors push their strategy.   If Dan Loeb has enough support that when it will take place.

As indicated in Calendar year 2017 and 2018 Sony Pictures was profitable, even with a number of sub par box office performances, leading the way was Jumanji, Peter Rabbit, Hotel Transylvania 3, The Equalizer 2, as well as the Marvel Titles of Spider-Man Homecoming, Venom, and Into the Spider-verse.   For Sony the problem with the Marvel titles is their profitability in comparison to their cost.   Does Sony invest $200 Million (spread out over 24 months) to make $50 million in net profit in return?   

As I have indicated previously Sony has put all their chips on the table and is waiting for anyone, well at least Marvel Studios (Disney) to do something.   

Avengers: Endgame was the conclusion of Phase 3 (The Infinity Stones) storyline of Marvel Studios, while we have some idea of what comes next (cough Secret Invasion cough probably maybe).   We also know that Avengers: Endgame will be extremely profitable, as it generated 550 million in revenue for Marvel Studios on $500 million dollar total budget in its first seven days of release.   It's likely the film will generate another $500 million dollars profit for Marvel Studios.   

In the end I believe the success of Avengers: Endgame puts more pressure on Sony to act.  Financially I know the bean counters at Sony would tell you it's better to pull out of the deal (not renegotiate) the deal with Marvel Studios but it would be a PR nightmare, potentially sinking one or two movie before recovering.   Is Sony ready for that PR nightmare?

I would not be shocked to hear more rumors that Sony and Marvel are discussing a sale of the Marvel Properties (including Men in Black) during mid to late summer as Dan Loeb's supporters become more agitated.   However until Dan Loeb or another activist investor gets enough shareholder support a sale is not going to happen.

My view is Sony will begrudgingly agree to a new crossover deal with Marvel and Marvel will get more creative control of the live action Spider-Man universe allowing all of the Sony Spider-Man universe characters to be in the shared MCU universe.

Universal Pictures

Universal still has the rights to release movies with the Incredible Hulk and Namor.   Hasn't changed as their agreement doesn't have similar clauses requiring Movies be in active production.   

Universal Pictures is owned by NBCUniversal which is owned by Comcast.   To put it bluntly the CEO of Comcast, Brian Roberts and the CEO of Disney, Dave Iger, don't like each other and have actively competed against one another on numerous fronts over the past decade.

In 2019 Disney sold Comcast their share of Sky Network and NBCUniversal is working with Disney to sell NBCUniversal share of HULU streaming service to Disney.   That is something that a year ago I would not believe to have been possible.    It's like a earthquake along the coast of Africa that everyone has been waiting for.

I am guessing their is an expanded agreement in place allowing the use of not only Hulk and the associated characters in his IP to be used by Disney, but a further agreement for Namor to be used as well.    The real question is Disney writing NBCUniversal a check to take the rights back or is it just an expanded use agreement?

20th Century Fox has agreed to return the Fantastic Four and all characters associated with the IP to Marvel studios in exchange for the X-Men TV rights.

More to come.

Sony and 20th Century Fox have over the years had a solid working relationship as film studios, including several unwritten agreements to not step on one another toes or directly compete with one another on numerous projects and sharing of resources.   In the Marvel Universe Sony allowed 20th Century Fox to use Kingpin from the Spider-Man IP in their 2003 Daredevil Movie.   

The great Sony hack reviled that Sony was well versed on everything that 20th Century Fox was working on, and considering; including details on a potential X-Men - Fantastic Four crossover.

 

20th Century Fox does not have a good relationship with Disney or Marvel Studios, bad, contentious, ill-willed are probably much better words to describe their relationship.  

In 2012 Co-Chair Tom Rothman stepped down leaving Jim Gianopulos as Chair of 20th Century Fox.   Tom Rothman by all accounts was not a superhero kind of guy, the jury is kind of out on Jim.   However when George Lucas sold LucasFilm Studios to Disney in 2012 without even allowing 20th Century Fox to bid, needless to say Jim Gianopulos was not a happy camper.

In 2012 Marvel Studios (and Marvel Entertainment) were in discussions with 20th Century Fox on the return of the Fantastic Four IP to Marvel.   According to rumor at the last moment 20th Century Fox decided to move forwards with production of a reboot, Marvel Entertainment CEO Isaac Perlmutter went beyond ballistic to batshit crazy.    To this day their are no posters or pictures of the Fantastic Four in Marvel Entertainments Headquarters.

The rumors continued that Alan Fine,  President of Marvel Entertainment, read the script of the reboot and said something along the lines that "this is worse than The Amazing Spider-Man 2." 

A comparison of the box-office returns of The Avengers: Age of Ultron to The Fantastic Four will be telling.   It goes beyond which movie makes the most revenue, because that is a no brainer, but rather which one outperforms and which one underperforms.

A:AOU may have an outside chance to hit $1 Billion domestically, I am guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of $750 Million is more likely.    

The FF movie on the other hand is a complete wildcard.  It could be as high as $200 Million or as low as $85 Million with a fair bet that $150 Million is going to be pretty close. 

 

Where this comes into play is how much money the movies make in revenue for the individual studios.   Everything from Marvel Studios has turned out well so far, 20th Century Fox on the other hand is only batting .500.  
20th Century Fox is not investing big into Fantastic Four, reportedly around $100 Million in comparison Marvel Studios is investing $180 Million for Ant-Man.   To turn a profit domestically Fantastic Four needs to earn around $140 to $145 Million, that way any money earned overseas is all profit.   With a fair bet that $150 Million, that really doesn't leave any margin for error.  A rough formula suggests for every $1 less than $145 million the movie will need to earn $3 overseas.  Example if FF earns $120 Million ($25 M Short) it will need to make $75 Million overseas.  

You can be successful with a decent overseas revenue, see The Wolverine, unfortunately that is the exception not the rule.

The worst nightmare for 20th Century Fox is Fantastic Four earns $115 Million Domestically and $180 Million overseas.   While it sounds like a big number it barely makes enough to cover the expenses and not enough to finance the sequel in any way shape or form.

 

Another item to watch for is Fantastic Four is using OTOY for almost all of its VX (CGI).  OTOY is a cloud rendering system that in theory is 1/4 to 1/3 the cost of traditional VX.   The question is how well will the VX from OTOY be in comparison to traditional VX used by Marvel Studios.   In the trailer we have not seen many VX shots so as an audience we have no way of knowing, yet even Ant-Man has shown us multiple VX shots.   I'll just say it is not a good sign so far.

 

The audience reaction to the Fantastic Four will be another and probably the final key metric for the success of FF.    Initially fans of the 2005 FF film were okay with the film, scoring the film with a median score of 6 (on a 10 point scale).   After the release of the FF: Rise of the Silver Surfer the median score for the original dropped to a 5.   Fan reception below a 8 (The lowest score in MCU excluding Hulk standalone movies) is probably going to be considered a failure. 

 

I can hear it now: That's a lot of discussion on FF, why?

The FF is a reboot of a movie franchise that is not 10 years old so the comparisons to Spider-Man and The Amazing Spider-Man are fairly natural or predictable.  With the failures of TASM people are going to want to know did 20th Century Fox learn from Sony's mistakes or not.
To me the answer is, well no, or probably not really.  20th Century Fox is telling an origin story over, trying to tell a coming of age story, and deviating from the accepted story line.
   
If you had seen Spider-Man (2002), you know any of the 500 times it was on TV before TASM (2012) was released than the rehash of the movie meant that 45 minutes or so could easily have been chopped out.  So far this month alone the 2005 Fantastic Four film is on TV 74 times.  
Marvel learned this from Hulk to The Incredible Hulk, where the reboot origin story was 5 minutes during the opening credits.

It is interesting that Josh Trank's version of FF is a coming of age story, well not really interesting but some word with similar meaning.  Josh Trank's best work thus far is Chronicle, a coming of age story about three friends who get super-powers and what happens to them.   So FF is a coming of age story about FOUR friends who get super-powers and what happens to them.   See the difference, oh yeah and the budget $20 to $100.  
The other problem with a coming of age story is the original story of the Fantastic Four, you know four OLDER individuals who gain powers later in life and how it changes their adult lives.

Which leads to the question, What happens if Fantastic Four underperforms at the Box Office?
For the record I am going to say underperforming is less than $150 million domestically and under $200 internationally.  
If FF falls dramatically short, say $115 and $150, I am guessing the second film is delayed or cancelled and 20th Century Fox and Marvel have discussions about giving back the license.
If FF falls short by a little bit, the third movie (crossover) is not going to happen.  The Second film may be delayed and Josh Trank replaced. 
If FF outperforms expectations than a lot of bloggers are going to have crow for supper for a while.

What are my expectations?
I have a hard time seeing FF outperforming expectations.   In the world of Sci-Fi movies, not just super-hero, but Sci-Fi movies in general (including supernatural horror, futuristic, alternative history, monsters and so forth) very few movies, not made by Marvel, have out performed expectations.   Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins is on a very short list that includes Avatar and ...  well ... that maybe it in the past ten years.   A few like Godzilla and Interstellar either barely beat or just missed their expectations but not many movies truly beat expectations.  The only question is how far below expectations do I expect FF to fall.
With that in mind I have a hard time seeing Fantastic Four II being released as scheduled in ultra competitive 2017 time frame.  

If 20th Century Fox did not control the X-Men IP, I am currently giving it a 25% chance that the license will be returned to Marvel before the next movie is made. A 50% chance that an agreement with Marvel would be made similar to the one between Sony and Marvel.  The remaining 25% chance that 20th Century will continue the course with Fantastic Four.   The percent chance that 20th Century Fox enters into a deal with Marvel Studios would be much higher if there was not so much animosity between the two groups.

Just Putting this in writing.
I do not anticipate that Marvel has any interest in the Fantastic Four under its current configuration of twenty-something characters. 
I want to be one of the first to say that I wouldn't be shocked if Marvel were to look at Ioan Gruffeld, Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis plus a replacement for Chris Evans if a crossover agreement were to happen.



Enough about the Fantastic Four, what about the X-Men?
The last two X-Men Movies, The Wolverine and X-Men: Days of Future Past, underperformed at the domestic box office ($132 and $233 Million Respectfully).   Both movies, on the other hand, outperformed expectations in the international box office ($284 and $511 M).
Executives at 20th Century Fox believed The Wolverine was a solid enough movie to make $65 M opening weekend with an outside chance to hit $75 M and end up in the $175 M range overall before the release of the film.  The movie fell roughly 20% short on both numbers.   X:Men Days of Future Past also fell 20% short of both opening weekend and total domestic.  The two movies combined to be approximately $100 below expectations.    That is a lot of jing, considering it was the budget of The Wolverine.

X-Men: Apocalypse is budgeted to be the most expensive film ever made by 20th Century Fox, in the neighborhood of $250 M.   There is hope at 20th Century Fox that using the OTOY system in the Fantastic Four can be used of XM:A and a savings of about $50 M can be seen.   With XM:A about to go into production I would have expected to hear rave reviews about OTOY and plans to use it wide spread by now.   As I have not hear those rave reviews I am thinking there is an issue and that traditional VX is going to be used in XM:A.

To keep up with the increased expenses XM:A will need to earn $270M domestically.   With XM:A being released in IMAX (the preceding films were not) it should bring a 10% to 15% increase in domestic revenue as well as the usual ticket price increases.  Additionally Deadpool will be released 90 days before.   Simply put it will need to sell 50,000 to 100,000 more tickets than XM:DoFP.   If Deadpool brings in similar numbers to The Wolverine coupled with the fact XM:DoFP was well received its not hard to imagine XM:A making those numbers.   That's not the problem, the fact that XM:DoFP underperformed by 20% puts the real number that XM:A should reach at $320M is the problem and its hard to see the movie hitting that mark.

X-Men: The TV Series
Way back in early 2000's there was a lawsuit involving Marvel Studios/Entertainment and 20th Century Fox concerning the rights both have for the X-Men Universe.   The result of the suit clearly indicated there are two sets of rights.  Marvel controls the X-Men Universe on TV and similar platforms while 20th Century Fox controls ALL mutants in Theatrically Released Motion Pictures.

So when rumors started circling that 21st Century Fox (20th Century Fox parent Company) was exploring a X-Men TV show for FOX (the TV Network) my ears perked up.   In many ways this is similar to the rumors about a Spider-Verse Movie with a female lead, it can only happen if there is an agreement between Fox and Marvel.   The rumors have died down lately, but something to watch for.

The Fantastic Four and the X-Men    
Before further discussing the X-Men IP the question becomes how linked are these two IPs in the eyes of Marvel and 20th Century Fox.   I honestly cannot answer.  I can suggest based upon public comment prior to Fantastic Four going into production that there is little or no link, however in the same breath I would add that people at 20th Century Fox would like there to be. 

From where I sit writing this I cannot see Marvel Entertainment/Studios coming to an agreement with 20th Century Fox on just one of the two IPs, if it is just one, it will not be the X-Men.  
Up above I suggested that there was a 50% chance that 20th Century Fox and Marvel come to an agreement, but that's not a true percentage chance.   With the animosity between the two studios that number should be closer to zero, but we aren't talking X-Men, we are suggesting the Fantastic Four.

What could Marvel Use?
Wolverine, Beast, X-23, Professor Xavier, an older Fantastic Four AND villains. 
The heroes would be a nice little addition to MCU, its the villains that Marvel Studios needs, especially big time named villains.  Doctor Doom, Galacatus, Magneto, Mystique, Jugernaut, and Sabretooth.  


Let's cut to the chase: Does 20th Century Fox and Marvel Studios make an agreement similar to the one that Sony Production Entertainment did with Marvel Studios earlier this month?
No.

If they make an agreement it will be a MUCH BIGGER agreement, involving TV rights, marketing and character licenses; not necessarily more money involved. 

The odds of that agreement are probably a little less than a coin flip.  An under performing Fantastic Four probably will lead to that push, which may occur before the movies release, but I don't think Marvel will go along with it.   Let's be clear however if Deadpool and X-Men: Apocalypse are going to beat expectations, and Wolverine 3 as well, than 20th Century Fox needs Marvel's help. 

An agreement between the two studios will clearly allow FOX to create and air an X-Men themed TV series, and maybe even a Fantastic Four theme TV series as well.
 

Now that Sony and Marvel Studios have signed an agreement what is next up on the agenda for Marvel Studios.






 

• Part 1 - How does Warner Bros/DC Studios respond?
• Part 1 - Sony's Spider-Man Cinematic Universe
• Part 2 - 20th Century Fox
• Part 3 - Random Thoughts

 

How does Warner Bros./DC Studios respond? 

I really do not know what to expect here. 
When newspapers all over the world are talking about the great plans of your rival its has to be nerve racking; considering how little attention you are getting in the first place.   Made worse by the fact a major casting in The Suicide Squad was printed on the bottom corner or page 12 of a recent Hollywood Newspaper.  

What's surprising is how little advertising in general we are seeing from WB for all of their movies.   Warner Bros just laid-off in excess of 1,000 people last week over the entirety of the media empire.   The company is rumored to be loosing cash at a record rate, there have been calls to spin off several subsidiaries and just shutdown others.      

 

Who is cast as the next Spider-Man?
I have been a fairly vocal critic of The Amazing Spider-Man story arc, basically since Marc Webb was announced as director.  With all that venom spilled I will still say the one thing the team at Sony got right was casting.   Andrew Garfield, Emma Stone, Rhys Ifans, Sally Field, Martin Sheen, Dennis Leary and so on were pretty exceptional in their roles, and there was phenomenal chemistry in their onscreen performances.   It is to bad the story stunk to the high heavens.
Like many critics I am disappointed that Andrew Garfield is being replaced, but there is a glimmer of hope.

Spider-Man was two (plus) different people in the Ultimate Universe, Peter Parker and Miles Morales.   There is a decent chance that Sony/Marvel will look for a Black Latino to play Miles Morales leaving the door open for Andrew Garfield return.   How much of a chance is currently debatable at the moment.   Insiders are suggesting that Marvel and Sony would really like to use Miles Morales character, the problem is many of the leaked candidates so far are of the Scrawny glow in the dark white 20-something actors.     

If Miles Morales is the next Spider-Man will Peter Parker Return?
Regardless of I how I feel as a fan I honestly believe that there is only a small percentage chance that Sony/Marvel will choose the Miles Morales (or any of the dozen or other variants); maybe 25% at most.   For the sake of argument, however, let assume they do choose Miles Morales, the answer is yes. 
The leaked emails from Sony suggest that multiple versions of Spider-Man were (are) being considered with a different core audience suggested for each one. 

As a follow up bonus question:  Why Andrew Garfield and not Tobey Maguire?
Well um er ahh. Tobey Maguire will is, um er, too old, sort of kind of.  
Here is how I would work Tobey Maguire into the story, May "Mayday" Parker, aka Spider-Girl is the daughter of Peter Parker and Mary Jane Watson.    Mayday Parker, like Jessica Drew and Cindy Moon are not a part of the Spider-Man IP controlled by Sony.
Personally I felt Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield made good Peter Parkers for very different reasons, I wish that Tobey would have gotten to work with better VX technology and Andrew better stories.  But at this stage Tobey is 39 going of 40 years old and while I believe he could integrate into the Avengers better he is too old for a stand alone film.

Will Marvel Studios be involved in the Spider-Man Universe spin-off movies?
This one is pretty easy to answer, yes at least in a limited way.
The Sinister Six and Venom are being reworked so that they in theory belong in the shared Marvel Cinematic Universe.  This doesn't mean they will be canon, rather the story and timeline will fit the MCU timeline in the same way that The Amazing Spider-Man was a part of the MCU timeline.
The Glass Ceiling Project, female lead set in the Spider-Man Universe is another story.   Currently it looks like multiple characters form the Marvel Cinematic Universe IP may be popping up in this film including the lead which tends to me to believe this will be more canon than the other two projects.  
I should note that there is well placed rumor that Angelina Jolie will be involved in this project as either director or actress. 

What about the Spider-Man, Marvel, 20th Century Fox crossover rumor?
This one is complicated.  
Rumors of a potential Spider-Man and his Amazing Friends themed movie trended upwards prior to the great Sony Hack of 2014.   The hack did not provide much validation to these rumors, yet they continued to grow in volume as well as detail. 
In the  cartoons the Amazing friends were Bobby Drake, the mutant Ice-Man and Angelica Jones, the mutant Firestar.   As an aside Firestar replaced the Human Torch Johnny Storm due to a licensing dispute in 1980.   
The rumors on the movie go like this, Spider-Man, Firestar and Tarene (Thor Girl/Tara Olsen) as roommates in college at Empire State University who are dealing with Dr. Doom plot.  Yeap just crossed all of the IPs.  
Two months ago I would have said very little chance of that happening, maybe less than zero, but I am guessing we might be in the double digits as a percentage chance; however with speculation of Dr. Doom from the latest origin story of Fantastic Four it probably would have a different villain. 

Avi Arad responding to Devin Leonard's article in Business Week Magazine, about the Man who Saved Marvel.

We had a list of titles, but the slate didn’t have Iron Man or Hulk, and I had a very tough time getting Iron Man back from New Line, but we got it back. I always loved Iron Man. I left because I wanted to leave. It was nothing other than it was time to go. The company was growing and I didn’t like committees and I was 60 and was doing well as it was. I took a walk and thought, ‘I’m too old for this.’ And I thought if I keep nothing but Spider-Man, I will continue with Marvel, but I can do other things. I wanted to do other things … and I am now. The company is in good hands with Kevin who doing a great job.”

And the plot thinkens with a response from NEW LINE Cinema executive:

“The article about the Arad/Feige wars seems interesting, it’s obviously sour grapes from a “producer” who has been marginalized by his former partner Perlmutter.

Arad talks about his “track record.” But what did that entail? All the deals at Fox were done by Bill Mechanic who had the foresight to see that Marvel had more value that previous owner Perelman thought. Iron Man was actually part of the Fox deal and it was simple idiocy by Tom Rothman that allowed New Line to come in and scoop it up. So what track record does he refer to? He deserves no credit for X-Men or Fantastic Four. I am sure he is not clamoring for credit for Daredevil or Elektra. So what track record? Spiderman he claims as his baby, but really that was ALL Sony. They had the rights through some crazyass deals that were done decades ago. He leveraged his way into the deal and pushed for David Fincher to direct the movie, not Sam Raimi. So I guess he had that track record.

But I was moved to write by this sentence of Arad’s - “I knew that we needed it (IRON MAN) so I set out to get it back from Newline and the rest is history.”

Let’s be clear here. Arad was happy to renew Iron Man with New Line for a total of FOUR years. He was happy with a script by Tim McLanies in which Iron Man was dressed by his toaster. He sat in meetings with Bob Shea who insisted that Iron Man not fly and he was okay with that. His vision for Iron Man was to try to pretty much do anything Shea and Emmerich wanted to do.

So how did he get it back from them when the new opportunity arose? Simple. He lied. He lied to New Line and Emmerich for months telling them that they were in negotiations for an extension, leading them to believe the project was going forward, then on the day the option was up he pulled it.

Arad so baldy and boldy lied to everyone back in those days, it’s astonishing he wants the unearned credit now. Track record? Outside of Marvel that consists of the Bratz movie. Feige was and remains the waterboy, that was clear then and now, but to talk about “forgiving” Kevin is just hilarious.

Facts are facts. Arad is full of sound and fury signifying nothing.

Sign me,

One Who Walked The Walk”

 I have to say nothing here is looking good for Avi position.