A Geeky Viewpoint

Fox's second to the last X-Men film is about to hit theaters and Disney is about to get stuck between a Rock and Hard place with a decision it has to make concerning the X-Men films.   

Dark Phoenix was not expected to be very good and thanks to throwing money at the film it became a lot more expensive than it was originally planned.    Many expected the film to end the X-Men universe from Fox with a whimper.

The film is currently sitting at a 25% on rottentomatoes.com, it is not very good. I hear you all saying it.   Read the reviews.   Many reviewers were simply looking for a comic book movie to take out their displeasure with comic book movies on.   They didn't dare attack the MCU and the DCEU and Hellboy aren't big enough targets.  The reviewers who actually like comic books or comic book films actually liked or at least didn't dislike the film.  Based upon Metacritic.com the average score for those that liked the film, the top 55% was ~65 out of 100.   The bottom 44% is ~28 out of 100.  That's a wide gulf of difference of opinion.    In looking at the critic scores not put into metacritic yet I think there is a good possibility the gulf grows.

Dark Phoenix is not a good movie, but it isn't a bad movie and nowhere near as bad as it rottentomatoes.com score either.   The real score will be better measured by cinemascore or other similar metric.  Do the people that see the movie like the movie?    Does Dark Phoenix get positive word of mouth?

This is where Disney and Marvel Studios run into their conundrum.    Dark Phoenix was expected to lose money, lots of it.  Giving Disney the easy answer in ending the X-Men Universe.    Problem is it might end up making money and end up in the black.   As one analyst suggested it is not improbable that the film makes $50 to $100 Million in profit.

How does it get into the black?

$150 domestic and $450 overseas or $125 domestic and $525 foreign earns $300 in revenues on a $200 Million dollar film (plus marketing).   That's about $50 in the black.  

This isn't the first time that the X-Men were on the chopping block. 

So what happens if Dark Phoenix ends in the black with a solid cinemascore from fans?

Well it is complicated.

The answer may lie with a few statements made by past directors of the X-Men franchise not named Bryan Singer.   Simon Kinberg recently spoke about how professional and organized Marvel Studios are in comparison to 20th Century Fox.    How things like schedules and budgets and special effects and oversight are better with Marvel Studios.  Gavin Hood, Brett Ratner, and Matthew Vaughn have been critical to the lack of support and changes made, often without their knowledge, by 20th Century Fox.   James Mangold hasn't openly criticized 20th Century Fox, but he suggested that The Wolverine was held back by some 20th Century Fox issues.                 

When Disney finally decides to do something with the X-Men they have three very different options to choose from.

1) A Hard reboot and Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe

2) A Soft Reboot and a Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe

3) A Soft Reboot and a separate X-Men Universe.  

Most fans are in favor of option 1.   It is all over the fan pages and forums.   And before I saw Dark Phoenix I was in that spot.

Option 3 has been pitched to Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, but he has publicly stated that Disney will be happy to put X-Men under Marvel Studios.

Option 2 seemed ridiculous two days-ago.   If Marvel Studios will be the production company, than a Hard Reboot, cut from 20th Century Fox X-Men seemed all but assured.

At the moment I think Option 1 is still the most likely solution, but neither Option 2 nor Option 3 should be removed completely from the table, yet.

The bigger the box office the more likely they movie down the list.   If Dark Phoenix post $50 to $100 Million in profit option 2 becomes a stronger choice and if for some reason the movie brings in $200 Million plus in profit (Talking about a $750 world wide take) option 3 comes into play.

Me personally I think option 2 is the good choice, but there is no best choice.  

Bob Iger what are you going to do?

20th Century Fox has agreed to return the Fantastic Four and all characters associated with the IP to Marvel studios in exchange for the X-Men TV rights.

More to come.

So yesterday thanks to the posting of Josh Boone, director for the forthcoming X-Men: New Mutants film, I posted a quick update.   The posting wasn't five minutes old when I got the first email asking about other things happening at 20th Century Fox.   So here goes.

20th Century Fox has announced the following release dates:

Films that have been strongly rumored or suggested in the works by Simon Kinberg and Lauren Shuler-Donner (The Producers of the X-Men films):

What we know: the Untitled Wolverine Sequel is to be set in the future and will be an adaptation of the Old-Man Logan story arc.       The movie began shooting either last week or this week depending on your source.

What is rumored: the casting call list two character descriptions that sound a lot like Daken and X-23.   Daken is the Wolverine's son, whose mother Itse was murdered by the Winter Soldier in the Comics.   X-23, aka Laura Kinney, is the first and only successful clone of Wolverine, however to be viable the male Y-Chromosome was replaced with an X Chromosome, so X-23 is a female clone.   I hope I got that right.



Notice the four claws.

There are some interesting possibilities here some of which I will talk about later.   Hugh Jackman has suggested that this will be his last appearance as the main character Logan/Wolverine.  He has said that before and is making this film and an appearance in X-Men: Apocalypse since that time.  So I am not totally convinced he is hanging up the claws, especially after  a posting on twitter in October.

The next thing that strikes me is two potential replacements, Laura Kinney is the current Wolverine in the comic books and Daken has taken up his father title more than once.   So it is possible that 20th Century Fox is looking at what comes next, especially with a film like X-Men: New Mutants on the way.  With strong female leads the rage in Hollywood today I would not be shocked that may be what happening.

I don't expect X-Men: New Mutants to be released on July 13th 2018, The Ant-Man and Wasp comes out the week before and Aquaman the following week, something has to give.   Because of that I am suggesting X-Men: New Mutants will be released in August 10, but that isn't the only time slot available, just the closest one.  

Given scheduling and times I have an inkling X-Men: The Dark Phoenix will fall back a year from 2018 to 2019.  

If 20th Century Fox moves ahead with either Mystique or X-Force project this is where dates could change.  I will point out no tentpole films are scheduled for memorial Day weekend for either 2018 or 2019 yet.    It is possible New Mutants could be pushed forward to May 25 2018, and the other project fall towards the end of 2018, October 19th for example but today I have a hard time seeing either moving forward without other changes.

The White Elephant sitting in the room that no one wants to talk about today.  

With the release of the 2015 Fantastic Four Film 20th Century Fox has until midsummer 2019 to set another Fantastic Four film into a production status.    With as big of financial failure as the 2015 film was the sequel has been removed from the release schedule.   Potato Potahto, it means it was canceled and 20th Century Fox had to eat any committed salaries and guaranteed contracts.   I have written extensively about the issue including this post last year. 

 

The obvious solution to this problem is either give the license back to Marvel or work with Marvel in the same way Sony has for Spider-Man.   This unfortunately requires that everyone at 20th Century Fox who is involved with Fantastic Four agrees they are at the end of the rope, which they don't.   It is a process known as Escalation of Commitment, i.e. throwing good money after bad.   

Several sources are suggesting that 20th Century Fox could make a backdoor reboot of the series using a Silver Surfer film.   Now don't get me wrong I think this is a better idea than an Aunt May spy thriller, but I am not sure it will work either.  

The Josh Trank bomb has backed 20th Century Fox into a corner and even though many think this will be a drawn out fight, I don't

 

Marvel TV studios is working with Fox on two TV series, Hellfire and Legion, neither of which could happen without an agreement between the two companies.  

If we hope in the way back machine to 2001 you'd find a lawsuit between these two companies, the behemoth 20th Century Fox sued Marvel and everyone thought 20th Century Fox was going to take the struggling company out behind the woodshed so to speak when the case was filed.   Funny thing happened, even though 95% of these cases are settled and another 4.9% are won be the litigant, 20th Century Fox in this case, Marvel won the lawsuit, not some little victory, a crushing knock it out of the stadium grand slam in the bottom of the ninth kind of victory.   The result of that victory Marvel Studios controls virtually its entire IP for Television, Radio and every other possibility that is not on the big screen.   Simply put Hellfire and Legion required Isaac Perlmutter's approval, CEO of Marvel Entertainment.   

I should point out Marvel Studios (Kevin Feige) no longer report to Issac Perlmutter, but Marvel Television Studios (Jeph Loeb) does.  

 

More to Come.

 

Okay, so I (and everyone else for that matter) missed the boat when it came to predicting the Box office for Deadpool over the past weekend.    I predicated Deadpool would take in $67 M for the three day weekend and my predictions were in line with most other predictions.   A few Hollywood insiders, specifically those who work for the rival studios, suggested that Deadpool may bring in $80 to $85 M over the three weekend.

 

How did I and everyone else blow this prediction, and by blow I mean miss it by 100%?

 

Starting at the beginning, even though discussions on a Deadpool film go back nearly a decade it was until recently the project moved forward.  Jim Gianopulos as Chairmen and CEO of 20th Century Fox Pictures green lit the project with a modest $58 M USD budget during the summer of 2014.   All previous released X-Men films were green lighted by the former Co-Chairmen of 20th Century Fox Pictures Tom Rothman, Jim Gianopulos replaced Tom Rothman on January 1, 2013.   Tom Rothman was noted for his hands on approach to film making and his dislike of Superhero Movies.   Under Tom Rothman's leadership of 20th Century Fox would never had made Deadpool, it was too risky and had too many characteristics that Rothman identified as failings of the Superhero Genre.  Fox domestic distribution chief Chris Aronson spoke about this  "Deadpool is wildly creative and new, and that’s what audiences want, I think a lot of credit goes to Jim Gianopulos for having the courage to make this movie."

 

That modest budget of $58 M USD, well when Tim Miller and Ryan Reynolds were pitching the film in late spring and early summer they were asking for $65 M USD.   20th Century Fox made the two heroes of our story an offer they couldn't refuse, figure out how to make the movie for $7 M USD less than what they figured was the absolute floor.   Less than 24 hours later our cast of misfits agreed, including Tim Miller, Ryan Reynolds, and the two principal writers Rheet Reese and Paul Wernick, amongst others, I assume Lauren Shuler Donner and Simon Kinberg were also involved.   I am not sure what was cut from the film, but I am guessing it involved a couple of CGI scenes.

 

20th Century Fox took a huge risk with an R-Rated superhero film.   The previous attempts were generally unsuccessful.  The Blade Trilogy, another Marvel property released by New Line Cinema, achieved decent success in the late 1990s and early 2000s.   However films like the Punisher, 300: Rise of an Empire, Watchmen and Kick-Ass all basically flopped.   The general line of thinking has been to make money you need to be PG-13, R-Rating kills the potential for success.   Even a successful film like Mad Max: Fury Road failed to turn a profit in its domestic release.

 

Ultra Violent films over the past decade have not been successful, either domestically and more importantly internationally.   While the US has sexual taboos most countries have violence taboos that limit films success.

 

So here is 20th Century Fox Pictures green lighting a Ultra Violent, Rated R Superhero movie where the hero isn't a hero and he talks to the audience.  Add to that the movie is scheduled for release in the cold of winter on a weekend that is usually reserved for dates at the theater, the lead actor while incredibly personable and likable has never been a leading man in a financially successful film and you are not going to have many other notable names in the film either.    For those that follow the industry it seems improbable at best.

 

Not only does 20th Century Fox green-light a movie they allow the principal actor, Ryan Reynolds, almost free reign to promote this movie on social media, and then decide it working so well lets take it further.  

 

With the success of the film its hard to imagine that it was even suggested doing a straight Superhero film, but that was what most in Hollywood thought they should do.   The leadership for the project did something else, they listened to the Fans and gave them exactly what they wanted.   They didn't try and create a new story or change the origin of the character or alter the character, just a simple Deadpool story.   The fans have Tim Miller to thank for this.   You know that released Deadpool test footage, created by Blur Studios, which happens to be lead by Tim Miller, provide that the fans wanted a crazy loco Deadpool, when it was "leaked" online. 

 

So 20th Century Fox made a crazy, ultra violent, sarcastically, R-Rated film, that the fans wanted, that still doesn't explain how the film earned $135 M USD domestically on its opening weekend.

 

There are other factors.  

Weak Competition for the opening weekend.   This is an important factor, almost as important as not having a true romantic comedy (or romantic film) on the slate.    How to be Single is more of a comedy with a female lead than a romantic comedy and it really opened the doors to the suggestion of taking in Deadpool on a date.   In addition the other new release Zoolander 2 scored very low on rottentomatoes.com and the closest thing to a hold over in the genre is the 9th weekend of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Valentine's Day fell of Sunday.   Had Valentine's Day fell on Saturday, before the very strong word of mouth broke for Deadpool, then the Female Comedy How to be Single probably gets a big bump and Deadpool drops.  

 

It should not be overlooked that Deadpool is a good movie.   It received an A rating from Cinemascore, an 85% favorable rating on Rottentomatoes.com and decent score of 65 on Metacritic.   It is not Shakespeare by any stretch of the imagination but it does have a solid score/soundtrack, a pretty good cinematography, and the editing isn't bad either.   I could also mention the acting and directing, and a script that was a very much a change of pace from the aspect of the story being told.

 

So you have a perfect storm, a film fans want to see, weak completion, a solid reviews and great word of mouth.  

Sony and 20th Century Fox have over the years had a solid working relationship as film studios, including several unwritten agreements to not step on one another toes or directly compete with one another on numerous projects and sharing of resources.   In the Marvel Universe Sony allowed 20th Century Fox to use Kingpin from the Spider-Man IP in their 2003 Daredevil Movie.   

The great Sony hack reviled that Sony was well versed on everything that 20th Century Fox was working on, and considering; including details on a potential X-Men - Fantastic Four crossover.

 

20th Century Fox does not have a good relationship with Disney or Marvel Studios, bad, contentious, ill-willed are probably much better words to describe their relationship.  

In 2012 Co-Chair Tom Rothman stepped down leaving Jim Gianopulos as Chair of 20th Century Fox.   Tom Rothman by all accounts was not a superhero kind of guy, the jury is kind of out on Jim.   However when George Lucas sold LucasFilm Studios to Disney in 2012 without even allowing 20th Century Fox to bid, needless to say Jim Gianopulos was not a happy camper.

In 2012 Marvel Studios (and Marvel Entertainment) were in discussions with 20th Century Fox on the return of the Fantastic Four IP to Marvel.   According to rumor at the last moment 20th Century Fox decided to move forwards with production of a reboot, Marvel Entertainment CEO Isaac Perlmutter went beyond ballistic to batshit crazy.    To this day their are no posters or pictures of the Fantastic Four in Marvel Entertainments Headquarters.

The rumors continued that Alan Fine,  President of Marvel Entertainment, read the script of the reboot and said something along the lines that "this is worse than The Amazing Spider-Man 2." 

A comparison of the box-office returns of The Avengers: Age of Ultron to The Fantastic Four will be telling.   It goes beyond which movie makes the most revenue, because that is a no brainer, but rather which one outperforms and which one underperforms.

A:AOU may have an outside chance to hit $1 Billion domestically, I am guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of $750 Million is more likely.    

The FF movie on the other hand is a complete wildcard.  It could be as high as $200 Million or as low as $85 Million with a fair bet that $150 Million is going to be pretty close. 

 

Where this comes into play is how much money the movies make in revenue for the individual studios.   Everything from Marvel Studios has turned out well so far, 20th Century Fox on the other hand is only batting .500.  
20th Century Fox is not investing big into Fantastic Four, reportedly around $100 Million in comparison Marvel Studios is investing $180 Million for Ant-Man.   To turn a profit domestically Fantastic Four needs to earn around $140 to $145 Million, that way any money earned overseas is all profit.   With a fair bet that $150 Million, that really doesn't leave any margin for error.  A rough formula suggests for every $1 less than $145 million the movie will need to earn $3 overseas.  Example if FF earns $120 Million ($25 M Short) it will need to make $75 Million overseas.  

You can be successful with a decent overseas revenue, see The Wolverine, unfortunately that is the exception not the rule.

The worst nightmare for 20th Century Fox is Fantastic Four earns $115 Million Domestically and $180 Million overseas.   While it sounds like a big number it barely makes enough to cover the expenses and not enough to finance the sequel in any way shape or form.

 

Another item to watch for is Fantastic Four is using OTOY for almost all of its VX (CGI).  OTOY is a cloud rendering system that in theory is 1/4 to 1/3 the cost of traditional VX.   The question is how well will the VX from OTOY be in comparison to traditional VX used by Marvel Studios.   In the trailer we have not seen many VX shots so as an audience we have no way of knowing, yet even Ant-Man has shown us multiple VX shots.   I'll just say it is not a good sign so far.

 

The audience reaction to the Fantastic Four will be another and probably the final key metric for the success of FF.    Initially fans of the 2005 FF film were okay with the film, scoring the film with a median score of 6 (on a 10 point scale).   After the release of the FF: Rise of the Silver Surfer the median score for the original dropped to a 5.   Fan reception below a 8 (The lowest score in MCU excluding Hulk standalone movies) is probably going to be considered a failure. 

 

I can hear it now: That's a lot of discussion on FF, why?

The FF is a reboot of a movie franchise that is not 10 years old so the comparisons to Spider-Man and The Amazing Spider-Man are fairly natural or predictable.  With the failures of TASM people are going to want to know did 20th Century Fox learn from Sony's mistakes or not.
To me the answer is, well no, or probably not really.  20th Century Fox is telling an origin story over, trying to tell a coming of age story, and deviating from the accepted story line.
   
If you had seen Spider-Man (2002), you know any of the 500 times it was on TV before TASM (2012) was released than the rehash of the movie meant that 45 minutes or so could easily have been chopped out.  So far this month alone the 2005 Fantastic Four film is on TV 74 times.  
Marvel learned this from Hulk to The Incredible Hulk, where the reboot origin story was 5 minutes during the opening credits.

It is interesting that Josh Trank's version of FF is a coming of age story, well not really interesting but some word with similar meaning.  Josh Trank's best work thus far is Chronicle, a coming of age story about three friends who get super-powers and what happens to them.   So FF is a coming of age story about FOUR friends who get super-powers and what happens to them.   See the difference, oh yeah and the budget $20 to $100.  
The other problem with a coming of age story is the original story of the Fantastic Four, you know four OLDER individuals who gain powers later in life and how it changes their adult lives.

Which leads to the question, What happens if Fantastic Four underperforms at the Box Office?
For the record I am going to say underperforming is less than $150 million domestically and under $200 internationally.  
If FF falls dramatically short, say $115 and $150, I am guessing the second film is delayed or cancelled and 20th Century Fox and Marvel have discussions about giving back the license.
If FF falls short by a little bit, the third movie (crossover) is not going to happen.  The Second film may be delayed and Josh Trank replaced. 
If FF outperforms expectations than a lot of bloggers are going to have crow for supper for a while.

What are my expectations?
I have a hard time seeing FF outperforming expectations.   In the world of Sci-Fi movies, not just super-hero, but Sci-Fi movies in general (including supernatural horror, futuristic, alternative history, monsters and so forth) very few movies, not made by Marvel, have out performed expectations.   Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins is on a very short list that includes Avatar and ...  well ... that maybe it in the past ten years.   A few like Godzilla and Interstellar either barely beat or just missed their expectations but not many movies truly beat expectations.  The only question is how far below expectations do I expect FF to fall.
With that in mind I have a hard time seeing Fantastic Four II being released as scheduled in ultra competitive 2017 time frame.  

If 20th Century Fox did not control the X-Men IP, I am currently giving it a 25% chance that the license will be returned to Marvel before the next movie is made. A 50% chance that an agreement with Marvel would be made similar to the one between Sony and Marvel.  The remaining 25% chance that 20th Century will continue the course with Fantastic Four.   The percent chance that 20th Century Fox enters into a deal with Marvel Studios would be much higher if there was not so much animosity between the two groups.

Just Putting this in writing.
I do not anticipate that Marvel has any interest in the Fantastic Four under its current configuration of twenty-something characters. 
I want to be one of the first to say that I wouldn't be shocked if Marvel were to look at Ioan Gruffeld, Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis plus a replacement for Chris Evans if a crossover agreement were to happen.



Enough about the Fantastic Four, what about the X-Men?
The last two X-Men Movies, The Wolverine and X-Men: Days of Future Past, underperformed at the domestic box office ($132 and $233 Million Respectfully).   Both movies, on the other hand, outperformed expectations in the international box office ($284 and $511 M).
Executives at 20th Century Fox believed The Wolverine was a solid enough movie to make $65 M opening weekend with an outside chance to hit $75 M and end up in the $175 M range overall before the release of the film.  The movie fell roughly 20% short on both numbers.   X:Men Days of Future Past also fell 20% short of both opening weekend and total domestic.  The two movies combined to be approximately $100 below expectations.    That is a lot of jing, considering it was the budget of The Wolverine.

X-Men: Apocalypse is budgeted to be the most expensive film ever made by 20th Century Fox, in the neighborhood of $250 M.   There is hope at 20th Century Fox that using the OTOY system in the Fantastic Four can be used of XM:A and a savings of about $50 M can be seen.   With XM:A about to go into production I would have expected to hear rave reviews about OTOY and plans to use it wide spread by now.   As I have not hear those rave reviews I am thinking there is an issue and that traditional VX is going to be used in XM:A.

To keep up with the increased expenses XM:A will need to earn $270M domestically.   With XM:A being released in IMAX (the preceding films were not) it should bring a 10% to 15% increase in domestic revenue as well as the usual ticket price increases.  Additionally Deadpool will be released 90 days before.   Simply put it will need to sell 50,000 to 100,000 more tickets than XM:DoFP.   If Deadpool brings in similar numbers to The Wolverine coupled with the fact XM:DoFP was well received its not hard to imagine XM:A making those numbers.   That's not the problem, the fact that XM:DoFP underperformed by 20% puts the real number that XM:A should reach at $320M is the problem and its hard to see the movie hitting that mark.

X-Men: The TV Series
Way back in early 2000's there was a lawsuit involving Marvel Studios/Entertainment and 20th Century Fox concerning the rights both have for the X-Men Universe.   The result of the suit clearly indicated there are two sets of rights.  Marvel controls the X-Men Universe on TV and similar platforms while 20th Century Fox controls ALL mutants in Theatrically Released Motion Pictures.

So when rumors started circling that 21st Century Fox (20th Century Fox parent Company) was exploring a X-Men TV show for FOX (the TV Network) my ears perked up.   In many ways this is similar to the rumors about a Spider-Verse Movie with a female lead, it can only happen if there is an agreement between Fox and Marvel.   The rumors have died down lately, but something to watch for.

The Fantastic Four and the X-Men    
Before further discussing the X-Men IP the question becomes how linked are these two IPs in the eyes of Marvel and 20th Century Fox.   I honestly cannot answer.  I can suggest based upon public comment prior to Fantastic Four going into production that there is little or no link, however in the same breath I would add that people at 20th Century Fox would like there to be. 

From where I sit writing this I cannot see Marvel Entertainment/Studios coming to an agreement with 20th Century Fox on just one of the two IPs, if it is just one, it will not be the X-Men.  
Up above I suggested that there was a 50% chance that 20th Century Fox and Marvel come to an agreement, but that's not a true percentage chance.   With the animosity between the two studios that number should be closer to zero, but we aren't talking X-Men, we are suggesting the Fantastic Four.

What could Marvel Use?
Wolverine, Beast, X-23, Professor Xavier, an older Fantastic Four AND villains. 
The heroes would be a nice little addition to MCU, its the villains that Marvel Studios needs, especially big time named villains.  Doctor Doom, Galacatus, Magneto, Mystique, Jugernaut, and Sabretooth.  


Let's cut to the chase: Does 20th Century Fox and Marvel Studios make an agreement similar to the one that Sony Production Entertainment did with Marvel Studios earlier this month?
No.

If they make an agreement it will be a MUCH BIGGER agreement, involving TV rights, marketing and character licenses; not necessarily more money involved. 

The odds of that agreement are probably a little less than a coin flip.  An under performing Fantastic Four probably will lead to that push, which may occur before the movies release, but I don't think Marvel will go along with it.   Let's be clear however if Deadpool and X-Men: Apocalypse are going to beat expectations, and Wolverine 3 as well, than 20th Century Fox needs Marvel's help. 

An agreement between the two studios will clearly allow FOX to create and air an X-Men themed TV series, and maybe even a Fantastic Four theme TV series as well.
 

Now that Sony and Marvel Studios have signed an agreement what is next up on the agenda for Marvel Studios.






 

• Part 1 - How does Warner Bros/DC Studios respond?
• Part 1 - Sony's Spider-Man Cinematic Universe
• Part 2 - 20th Century Fox
• Part 3 - Random Thoughts

 

How does Warner Bros./DC Studios respond? 

I really do not know what to expect here. 
When newspapers all over the world are talking about the great plans of your rival its has to be nerve racking; considering how little attention you are getting in the first place.   Made worse by the fact a major casting in The Suicide Squad was printed on the bottom corner or page 12 of a recent Hollywood Newspaper.  

What's surprising is how little advertising in general we are seeing from WB for all of their movies.   Warner Bros just laid-off in excess of 1,000 people last week over the entirety of the media empire.   The company is rumored to be loosing cash at a record rate, there have been calls to spin off several subsidiaries and just shutdown others.      

 

Who is cast as the next Spider-Man?
I have been a fairly vocal critic of The Amazing Spider-Man story arc, basically since Marc Webb was announced as director.  With all that venom spilled I will still say the one thing the team at Sony got right was casting.   Andrew Garfield, Emma Stone, Rhys Ifans, Sally Field, Martin Sheen, Dennis Leary and so on were pretty exceptional in their roles, and there was phenomenal chemistry in their onscreen performances.   It is to bad the story stunk to the high heavens.
Like many critics I am disappointed that Andrew Garfield is being replaced, but there is a glimmer of hope.

Spider-Man was two (plus) different people in the Ultimate Universe, Peter Parker and Miles Morales.   There is a decent chance that Sony/Marvel will look for a Black Latino to play Miles Morales leaving the door open for Andrew Garfield return.   How much of a chance is currently debatable at the moment.   Insiders are suggesting that Marvel and Sony would really like to use Miles Morales character, the problem is many of the leaked candidates so far are of the Scrawny glow in the dark white 20-something actors.     

If Miles Morales is the next Spider-Man will Peter Parker Return?
Regardless of I how I feel as a fan I honestly believe that there is only a small percentage chance that Sony/Marvel will choose the Miles Morales (or any of the dozen or other variants); maybe 25% at most.   For the sake of argument, however, let assume they do choose Miles Morales, the answer is yes. 
The leaked emails from Sony suggest that multiple versions of Spider-Man were (are) being considered with a different core audience suggested for each one. 

As a follow up bonus question:  Why Andrew Garfield and not Tobey Maguire?
Well um er ahh. Tobey Maguire will is, um er, too old, sort of kind of.  
Here is how I would work Tobey Maguire into the story, May "Mayday" Parker, aka Spider-Girl is the daughter of Peter Parker and Mary Jane Watson.    Mayday Parker, like Jessica Drew and Cindy Moon are not a part of the Spider-Man IP controlled by Sony.
Personally I felt Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield made good Peter Parkers for very different reasons, I wish that Tobey would have gotten to work with better VX technology and Andrew better stories.  But at this stage Tobey is 39 going of 40 years old and while I believe he could integrate into the Avengers better he is too old for a stand alone film.

Will Marvel Studios be involved in the Spider-Man Universe spin-off movies?
This one is pretty easy to answer, yes at least in a limited way.
The Sinister Six and Venom are being reworked so that they in theory belong in the shared Marvel Cinematic Universe.  This doesn't mean they will be canon, rather the story and timeline will fit the MCU timeline in the same way that The Amazing Spider-Man was a part of the MCU timeline.
The Glass Ceiling Project, female lead set in the Spider-Man Universe is another story.   Currently it looks like multiple characters form the Marvel Cinematic Universe IP may be popping up in this film including the lead which tends to me to believe this will be more canon than the other two projects.  
I should note that there is well placed rumor that Angelina Jolie will be involved in this project as either director or actress. 

What about the Spider-Man, Marvel, 20th Century Fox crossover rumor?
This one is complicated.  
Rumors of a potential Spider-Man and his Amazing Friends themed movie trended upwards prior to the great Sony Hack of 2014.   The hack did not provide much validation to these rumors, yet they continued to grow in volume as well as detail. 
In the  cartoons the Amazing friends were Bobby Drake, the mutant Ice-Man and Angelica Jones, the mutant Firestar.   As an aside Firestar replaced the Human Torch Johnny Storm due to a licensing dispute in 1980.   
The rumors on the movie go like this, Spider-Man, Firestar and Tarene (Thor Girl/Tara Olsen) as roommates in college at Empire State University who are dealing with Dr. Doom plot.  Yeap just crossed all of the IPs.  
Two months ago I would have said very little chance of that happening, maybe less than zero, but I am guessing we might be in the double digits as a percentage chance; however with speculation of Dr. Doom from the latest origin story of Fantastic Four it probably would have a different villain.