2016 - The year that Marvel Stumbles?

Posted by Jeff Labels:

As I look back at the box office of the past two months with three Marvel Movies released over an 8 week period I wondered how much cannibalization occurred? 

April 4 - Captain America: The Winter Soldier
May 3 - The Amazing Spider Man 2
May 23 - X-Men: Days of Future Past

Part of the problem when talking about cannibalization of the box office people have to make assumptions on what the audience would have done if that movie wasn't there.  The flip side of the coin in the discussion is whether or not a movie audience reviews/critical reviews is also involved in the discussion.

In the three movies that was just released we have two problems.   The first is with little question from both critics and the audience in general The Amazing Spider-Man 2 [TASM2] was not a very good movie.   Earning an unhealthy 54 on Rotten Tomatoes,  Metacritic score of 49 and CinemaScore of a B did the movie no favors.   The movie did earn $91 Million in the opening weekend, but by the third weekend it had dropped to $16 Million in the same number of theaters.   These reasons for me determine that TASM2 is the cannibal film.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier [CA:TWS] on the other hand earned $95 Million on Opening Weekend and in the fourth weekend in competition with TASM2 still earned $16 Million. 

So how much did The Amazing Spider-Man cannibalize CA:TWS?   By my math it appears to cost CA:TWS about $15 to $20 Million domestically and internationally another $50 Million (at least). 

How much did TASM2 cannibalize X-Men: Days of Future Past [DOFP]?    Only one week in $5 at least and maybe as much as $20 Million for the opening weekend and a residual effect of another $5 to $10 Million.     Even though TASM2 was released two earlier internationally than its domestic release, it cost DOFP about $30 million and the residual effect maybe another $10 to $15.  

From my vantage point the release of TASM2 cost Marvel Studios and 20th Century Fox at least $140 million in sales.     That amount would put a movie in roughly the top 550 movies of all time in terms of Box Office.  

The next question is when does this cycle happen again, 2016, except it's not three movies in eight weeks, its four movies in 9 weeks.

  • May 6 - Captain America 3
  • May 27 - X-Men: Age of Apocalypse
  • June 10 - The Amazing Spider-Man 3
  • July 8 - Untitled Marvel Studios
Add in Dawn of Justice on May 6 and you have 5 movies!
 
IF I were Kevin Feige, Amy Pascal/Kazuo Harai, and/or Jim Gianopulos it would be time to have some serious considerations on Movie dates.
 
For Marvel Studios and Kevin Feige I totally understand you have worked hard to brand the first weekend in May as your weekend with 5 movies released on that weekend, and I totally get you not want to move because Dawn of Justice (Warner Brothers DC Comics) is also on that weekend, but for Marvel Studios it is finically for the best to move your release date up to April 8th, 2016.
Additionally that July 8th Date, is already looking a little crowded moving that to August 5th again a weekend you have planned for the 2014 Guardians of the Galaxy release looks like a better option.
 
I would hate to be Kazuo Harai and Amy Pascal at Sony Pictures and dealing with the fallout of TASM2 for the release of TASM3.   The Spider-Man movies have been all over the map when it comes to release date and lately it hasn't look good for the brand, its time to seriously consider moving out of the crowded summer into a far less competitive time zone, how about October 2016.   For many movies it would kill your Box Office, but considering the state of things.
 
That leaves 20th Century Fox's release of X-Men: Apocalypse on Memorial Day Weekend in 2016 with movies spread out at least a minimum 8 weeks apart.   It would compete against Alice in Wonderland 2 but clear different audiences and that good for the movie going public.      
 
My preferred schedule:
  • April 8 - Captain America 3
  • May 6 - Dawn of Justice
  • May 27 - X-Men: Apocalypse
  • August 8 - Untitled Marvel Film
  • October 21 - The Amazing Spider-Man 3
Of course no one is asking me and everyone's egos are going to get in the way.

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