Back in June I made some predictions on the success of movies at the box office. Time to check out how I did.
Predicted to Flop - Financially come no where close to recouping production costs at the domestic Box Office.
- Alice Through the Looking Glass Production $170 M | Domestic Box Office $77 M
- Warcraft: The Beginning $160 M | $47 M
- The Legend of Tarzan $180 M | $126 M
- Ben-Hur (2016) $100 M | $24 M
I am not surprised that
The Legend of Tarzan out performed expectations and continued to do solid business through out the year, however $180 M in production costs are going to be tough to recoup. When analysts looked at the film the problem for the Movie was timing and the marketing campaigns of the films it was directly competing against. The film opened over Fourth of July Weekend and doubled most opening weekend predictions at $38 M for the three day and $46 M for the four day holiday weekend.
Warcraft: The Beginning was doomed from the get go and no one asked for a sequel to
Alice or a remake of
Ben-Hur and not surprisingly very few people saw them in the theaters.
Under Performing Films - Movies that should be either moderately successful or successful but will not turn a profit in the domestic box office.
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $135 M | $82 M
- Star Trek: Beyond $155 | $135
- The BFG $140 | $55 M
No surprises among these three films. The BFG probably could have added 50% to 100% of its domestic take if it was released in different time frame instead of summer filled with a solid ten children films. Star Trek Beyond, even as the 50th Anniversary for the legendary franchise approached, could not make a name for itself. TMNT: Out of the Shadows was both a kids film and a superhero film in a summer filled with both.
Moderately Successful - Movies that make the studios money back and maybe turn a small profit.
- Kubo and the Two Strings $60 M | $47 M
- Pete's Dragon $65 M | $75 M
- Suicide Squad $175 M | $323 M
- Angry Birds $73 M | $107 M
- Now You See Me 2 $90 M | $66 M
- Ice Age: Collision Course $105 M | $62 M
- X-Men: Apocalypse $175 M | $155 M
A couple films in this group I like many other analysts thought they had a larger built in audience. Now You Seem 2 and Ice Age: Collision Course are sequels whose previous films clearly beat expectations but neither film had the same connection to their audience. In the case of Ice Age: Collison Course part of its failing was the high level of competition from other kids films which syphoned off part of its audience. Now You See Me 2 is a bit of a different story, I am not sure I can tell you why it did only 50% of the prior film.
I am pretty sure many accounts rested a lot easier when
Suicide Squad pulled in $323 M domestically and another $420 M overseas, but the brass at DC are still very concerned about the continued under performance of the DC films. Geoff Jones has his work cut out for him.
Movies that could exceed expectations
- Independence Day : Resurgence $165 M | $103 M
- Jason Bourne $120 M | $156 M
- Ghostbuster (2016) $144 M | $128 M
Totally acknowledging the fact I blew these three films.
Ghostbusters was neither a reboot nor a sequel and as something in the middle with all four leads playing the Dr. Venkmen role from the original. It didn't work and the audience didn't show up.
Independence Day: Resurgence even with it eye popping, spectacular CGI, the audience never connected with the cast in the same way the Will Smith's character Capt. Steven Hiller, did in the original. The writing was on the wall for the first two films the third film
Jason Bourne under performance at the Box Office totally caught me off guard. Finishing with $162 M it in third place amongst the Bourne Film collection behind the third film
Bourne Supremacy and the spin-off
Bourne Legacy.
Most likely to be Successful, clearly turning a profit.
- Captain America: Civil War $250 M | $408 M
- Finding Dory $200 M | $438 M
- The Secret Life of Pets $75 M | $360 M
Enough said on these three films.
The summer films are actually down 5% in total number of tickets sold compared to last year. Clearly this is an indicator that it isn't just the number of films cannibalizing each others audience, but as the second lowest number of tickets sold since 1992 people didn't go to the theaters, only 2014 was lower. Compared to a typical year 35 M fewer tickets were sold during the summer blockbuster season in a year with record number of films released.
Posts
