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Fox's second to the last X-Men film is about to hit theaters and Disney is about to get stuck between a Rock and Hard place with a decision it has to make concerning the X-Men films.
Dark Phoenix was not expected to be very good and thanks to throwing money at the film it became a lot more expensive than it was originally planned. Many expected the film to end the X-Men universe from Fox with a whimper.
The film is currently sitting at a 25% on rottentomatoes.com, it is not very good. I hear you all saying it. Read the reviews. Many reviewers were simply looking for a comic book movie to take out their displeasure with comic book movies on. They didn't dare attack the MCU and the DCEU and Hellboy aren't big enough targets. The reviewers who actually like comic books or comic book films actually liked or at least didn't dislike the film. Based upon Metacritic.com the average score for those that liked the film, the top 55% was ~65 out of 100. The bottom 44% is ~28 out of 100. That's a wide gulf of difference of opinion. In looking at the critic scores not put into metacritic yet I think there is a good possibility the gulf grows.
Dark Phoenix is not a good movie, but it isn't a bad movie and nowhere near as bad as it rottentomatoes.com score either. The real score will be better measured by cinemascore or other similar metric. Do the people that see the movie like the movie? Does Dark Phoenix get positive word of mouth?
This is where Disney and Marvel Studios run into their conundrum. Dark Phoenix was expected to lose money, lots of it. Giving Disney the easy answer in ending the X-Men Universe. Problem is it might end up making money and end up in the black. As one analyst suggested it is not improbable that the film makes $50 to $100 Million in profit.
How does it get into the black?
$150 domestic and $450 overseas or $125 domestic and $525 foreign earns $300 in revenues on a $200 Million dollar film (plus marketing). That's about $50 in the black.
This isn't the first time that the X-Men were on the chopping block.
So what happens if Dark Phoenix ends in the black with a solid cinemascore from fans?
Well it is complicated.
The answer may lie with a few statements made by past directors of the X-Men franchise not named Bryan Singer. Simon Kinberg recently spoke about how professional and organized Marvel Studios are in comparison to 20th Century Fox. How things like schedules and budgets and special effects and oversight are better with Marvel Studios. Gavin Hood, Brett Ratner, and Matthew Vaughn have been critical to the lack of support and changes made, often without their knowledge, by 20th Century Fox. James Mangold hasn't openly criticized 20th Century Fox, but he suggested that The Wolverine was held back by some 20th Century Fox issues.
When Disney finally decides to do something with the X-Men they have three very different options to choose from.
1) A Hard reboot and Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe
2) A Soft Reboot and a Merge with the Marvel Cinematic Universe
3) A Soft Reboot and a separate X-Men Universe.
Most fans are in favor of option 1. It is all over the fan pages and forums. And before I saw Dark Phoenix I was in that spot.
Option 3 has been pitched to Bob Iger, CEO of Disney, but he has publicly stated that Disney will be happy to put X-Men under Marvel Studios.
Option 2 seemed ridiculous two days-ago. If Marvel Studios will be the production company, than a Hard Reboot, cut from 20th Century Fox X-Men seemed all but assured.
At the moment I think Option 1 is still the most likely solution, but neither Option 2 nor Option 3 should be removed completely from the table, yet.
The bigger the box office the more likely they movie down the list. If Dark Phoenix post $50 to $100 Million in profit option 2 becomes a stronger choice and if for some reason the movie brings in $200 Million plus in profit (Talking about a $750 world wide take) option 3 comes into play.
Me personally I think option 2 is the good choice, but there is no best choice.
Bob Iger what are you going to do?
Dark Phoenix is not a good movie, but it is not a bad movie either. It is stuck in that nebulous realm of being simply an okay movie. I would also add that if you are a fan of the X-Men comics, you actually might like the movie.
The script is a big problem for this film. The best way to think of the script is to look at 8 episode series for The Runaways paired down to 2 hours and shown on a big screen. It is not a script for a big budget movie, the scope is too small and you are expected to know exactly what happened in the missing six hours of the film that you don't see.
The script is not true to the source material, changes are made simply for the sake of changes. As a fan of the X-Men comics I found this frustration difficult to contain while I watched the film. I am sure the poor guy sitting next to me was exacerbated with me as I sighed and probably asked "Why?" out loud more than once.
The script wastes the talents of multiple actors through out the film. The film has a triumvirate of actors at the core with Jennifer Lawrence (Raven Darkholm/Mystique), James McAvoy (Charles Xavier) and Michael Fassbender (Erik Lensherr/Magento) that is interlaced with Sophie Turner's character (Jean Grey). You can easily question why the next six core X-Men are in the film, they are given little to no screen time and beyond one or two moments they are not given a chance to showcase their talents or their mutant powers.
Mystique is presented as a caring and guiding teacher, Charles Xavier is a villain and Magneto is not prepared for what comes. I was dumb founded. There are a couple of scenes that are hard to watch.
I still have no idea why Jessica Chastain was in the film, other than someone at 20th Century Fox said there needed to be a main villain, named Vuk. She is not realistically given anything to do nor do you believe she is a great villain, but she is there to unite the X-Men.
The special effects are hit and miss. While those involving Jean Grey and a few around other characters are okay, many look like they belong in a 1980's era TV show. You just want Ryan Reynolds to show up as Deadpool and give a Mystery Science Theater 3000 commentary on more than one scene.
The second act is a complete mess. Issues with the characters, scripts, poor acting, bad direction, and literally it doesn't seem to properly connect with the first or third act.
Sophie Turner is very good as Jean Grey. To put it mildly it is disappointing she will most likely not take up the mantle of Jean Grey in the MCU, because she is one bad ass woman you don't want to mess with.
There are a many good lines in the movie. For a script that is so bad with it's swings and missed it hits the nail on the head solidly a good dozen times.
Hans Zimmer's score is exceptional; with over 200 composer credits this is easily within his top five and maybe even his best work. If the movie was slightly better I would say this is Oscar worthy, as it is it still might be.
Comic book fans of the Marvel Cinematic Universe have long for John Krasinski to take on the part Reed Richards for the past couple of years. Is the redone comic book character a hint that the deal is done?
Over the years many Marvel characters have been updated and changed, I mean we have had 60 years with some of these characters. New artists, new spin on the characters. But this change is clearly made to look like what a potential John Krasinski's portrayal would be. is this Marvel saying we hear you and here is an example or is this we got him moment.
As I look at the upcoming movie release schedule, we have Black Widow solo film and The Eternals upcoming. The more I though about it I was convinced that we will see the Fantastic Four in the Eternals, it just makes sense. It also makes sense when you throw in the fact I believe the next five year story arc will be Secret Wars.
With that and looking at who has been connected with Marvel roles recently I believe the casting has been made for the entire Fantastic Four team, and they will be announced this summer.
Reed Richards / Mr. Fantastic - John Krasinski
Sue Storm (Richards) / Invisible Woman - Charlize Theron
Ben Grimm / The Thing - Dwayne Johnson
Johnny Storm / The Human Torch - Zac Efron
and we need a villain
Doctor Doom - Brian Cranston
A quick comment. Emily Blunt, the wife of John Krasinski in real life, has been offered numerous roles in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and has turned them all down. I have no doubt that if John Krasinski was offered the role of Reed Richards than Marvel Executives would have offered the role of Sue Storm to Emily Blunt. However she has a pretty full dance card of upcoming movies and with the history of turning down superhero roles I think it is semi-safe to say she turned down the role again.
Charlize Theron, Oscar Winner for Monster, highly acclaimed for her action/stunts in the role of Lorrine Broughton in Atomic Blonde has suddenly become a hot topic again in Hollywood.
Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron have been frequently linked to roles in the Marvel Universe, both have reportedly meet again very recently with Kevin Feige and other Marvel Studio executives. Fans have suggested that Zac Efron would make a great Adam Warlock, I think he would make a better Johnny Storm.
Another name for role of Johnny Storm, Andrew Garfield.
Disney - Comcast come to an agreement on Hulu
Posted by Labels: Comcast, Disney, Disney +, Hulu, NBC UniversalEffective immediately Disney will take full control of streaming service Hulu.
The deal allows Comcast (NBC/Universal) content licensing to lapse in three years, allows comcast to move forward with its own Streaming Service and has an option to sell its share of Hulu to Disney for at least $27.5 Billion dollars.
The control of Hulu allows Disney to move its "less family friendly" oriented content to hulu while leaving Disney+ as a more family oriented streaming service.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/comcast-has-agreed-to-sell-its-stake-in-hulu-in-5-years.html
After the completion of the purchase of 20th Century Fox Disney announced the updated release schedule for films under the Marvel Banner, including Marvel Studios and 20th Century Fox.
2019
June 7 - X-Men: Dark Phoenix
July 5 - Spider-Man: Far From Home
2020
April 3 - X-Men: New Mutants
May 1 - Untitled Marvel Studios
October 2 - Untitled Sony Marvel Sequel
November 6 - Untitled Marvel Studios
2021
February 12 - Untitled Marvel Studios
May 7 - Untitled Marvel Studios
November 5 - Untitled Marvel Studios
2022
February 18 - Untitled Marvel Studios
May 6 - Untitled Marvel Studios
July 29 - Untitled Marvel Studios
Announced with no dates attached
Black Panther 2
Black Widow
Doctor Strange Sequel
The Eternals
Guardians of the Galaxy Volume III
Ms. Marvel
Shang-Chi
Deadpool 3 / X-Force
Logan Spin Off - X-Men
Mystique - X-Men
Canceled
Gambit
Untitled Fox Marvel - June 26, 2020
Untitled Fox Marvel - October 2, 2020
Untitled Fox Marvel - March 5, 2021
Commentary
New Mutants date was shifted? It was long rumored that New Mutant would be shifted to a direct to Video release, possible a Hulu Movie. But shifting it to a position that isn't necessarily a dead weekend in the box office, and directly against an announced DC Film, but not a prime Marvel Film weekend is interesting. The film is scheduled to get further reshoots later this year. Is Kevin Fiege involved? Something is up here.
The oft delayed Gambit, which was supposed to go into production this summer, but currently does not have a director attached has been indefinitely delayed, Not Canceled. Normally indefinitely delayed does mean canceled, but Disney has officially canceled a few 20th Century movies in development. So why is this one indefinitely delayed instead? Gambit, like Deadpool is film that should be in the R-Rated space, as the character is a gambler womanizer and adult oriented humor. Could it be that Disney wants to revisit after deciding what to do with Deadpool and Blade?
Three films that are not canceled from the Fox list, Deadpool 3 (X-Force), the Logan (Wolverine) Spin-Off starring Daphne Keen as Laura/X-23, and the Mystique standalone film.
The Deadpool film is easy to understand but the other two are interesting in the fact that they were announced during the acquisition and their status was not addressed in the press release.
Where are the problems.
The sequel to Captain Marvel has not been announced is not on the list, but it has to go somewhere. What about Ant-Man and the Wasp sequel?
Currently Marvel Studios has three movies in preproduction that are prepared to go to filming. The Black Widow standalone movie, The Eternals and Shang-Chi.
The other announced films are currently also in preproduction but do to scheduling and other requirements not ready to go to filming stage.
- Black Panther sequel - Not on anyones schedule until mid-late 2020 for filming.
- Doctor Strange sequel - Benedict Cumberbatch schedule is full until 2021.
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3, is slated to be filmed after James Gunn finishes filming Suicide Squad for DC Studios.
- Ms. Marvel - No one is attached to any major points.
The only film that can slot into the February 12, 2021 date is Deadpool 3 (aka X-Force).
2019
June 7 - X-Men: Dark Phoenix
July 5 - Spider-Man: Far From Home
2020
April 3 - X-Men: New Mutants
May 1 - Black Widow Standalone
October 2 - The Eternals
November 6 - Shang-Chi
2021
February 12 - Deadpool 3 (X-Force)
May 7 - Captain Marvel II
November 5 - Ms Marvel
2022
February 18 - Ant-Man and the Wasp sequel
May 6 - Black Panther sequel
July 29 - Guardians of the Galaxy Volume III
This leaves both the X-Men sequels (Mystique and X-23) off the list as well as one MCU announced film, in my case I left Doctor Strange sequel but it could be Ant-Man and the Wasp. The reason I left Doctor Strange off the list is because with film not planned until begin filming until mid 2021 can it be ready by 2022?
If the two X-Men films are being left off the list why were they not indefinitely delayed or canceled?
The question is what happens in 2023?
Why are no films announced for 2023?
April 28th would be the logical release date for the next Avengers film. February 10th the weekend before the Presidents Day weekend has a live action Disney movie listed for a release date. That creates a challenge to build hype in the way the Black Panther and Captain Marvel lead into the last two Avengers film. Do you drop a film there?
This leads me to believe that one of the following things is true:
- One of the movies that Marvel has announced (or not Announced but we all know is coming) is further along in development than we know so it can be slotted in the February 12th 2021 release date.
- There is another unannounced movie in the works (Avengers).
- The next Avengers Film is released in 2024
- There is an X-Men film planned for 2023.
Edit:
I should note the above list does not include a Spider-Man sequel (third) movie. As of today neither Sony nor Disney have announced any movement on the Spider-man film rights.
There is a slot on for a movie release on July 1st, 2021 for Spider-Man in the calendar.
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